It's Thursday, we're at the ECB, so let's welcome our host with the most, Jean-Claude Trichet! Today€™s rate decision was crucial for the euro€™s direction as it had the potential to make or break its short term outlook, so when Mr. Trichet took centre stage and indicated the bank was happy with rates above 1%, traders recalled the better than expected US jobless claims and took all this as a green light to sell the dollar and buy the euro, hence the current euro strength.
Heavy EUR/USD trading followed the ECB's decision to cut rates by 25 points and the pair seems poised for further gains towards 1.35; where a clear break of 1.3470 could potentially boost the euro towards 1.3530. Seeing as 200 points have been gained already today, we may see some consolidation soon, however if the euro proves to be made of sterner stuff, any dips which may occur could see shrewd traders using them to build further longs. For this to be a possibility however, 1.3269 must hold.
In addition to the ECB's decision, today's economic calendar provided more economic goodness, with the BOE's rate decision coming through as expected along with the message the bank planned to increase its bond purchases in order to revive the deteriorating economy. The US jobless pleased with its lower than expected number and the ADP report was positive too; letting traders dream the dream of a joyous Friday in the US economy.
It is now obvious the better economic numbers we get, the higher stocks and equities move, providing investors with the feeling they may all soon be groping the proverbial economic bottom. This then raises the important question of whether we should be looking at going and then staying, long? Are we really over the worst? We should get our answer over the coming couple of months, where stabilisation of weekly data will be our Star of Bethlehem.
But before this we should be observing the euro's new found strength and the rise of the stocks, however this better market sentiment shouldn't lull us into a false sense of security, as we know it could bite back at any time. Observe its progression and prepare for battle..