Release Explanation: This is a private report issued by Applied Data Processing, a major supplier of payroll services to 100's of businesses. The report estimates change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.
Normally issued the Wednesday before the government's NFP report, the report has suffered from a lack of accuracy with regards to the Department of Labor's report. The company recently announced it had upgraded its modeling systems in order to better reflect the official number.
Trade Desk Thoughts: According to Automated Data Processing (ADP) nonfarm private employment decreased by 742,000 from February to March, further evidence of the devastating effect the burst housing bubble and ensuing financial crisis are having on the job market.
The Fed believes employment will weaken well into 2010, said Matthew Carniol, chief currency strategist at TheLFB-forex.com. Today's report from ADP will probably get The Street talking about a loss of over 800k in Friday's NFP report.
March’s ADP Report estimates nonfarm private employment in the service-providing sector fell by 415,000. Employment in the goods-producing sector declined 327,000, the twenty-seventh consecutive monthly decline. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined 206,000, its thirty-seventh consecutive decline.
Large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, saw employment decline by 128,000, while medium-size businesses with between 50 and 499 workers declined 330,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, declined 284,000. The sharp employment declines among medium- and small-size businesses indicate that the recession continues to spread aggressively beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities to almost every area of the economy.
In March, construction employment dropped 118,000. This was its twenty-sixth consecutive monthly decline, and brings the total decline in construction jobs since the peak in January 2007
Forex Technical Reaction: S&P futures were trading about 6 points lower prior to the report and fell an additional 5 points afterwards. The dollar weakened over the last few hours as futures moved off their lows but is likely to strengthen now in response to the move down in futures.