Key News

Key Reports Due (WSJ):

  • 8:30 a.m. Feb Non-Farm Payrolls: Expected: -675K. Previous: -598K.
  • 8:30 a.m. Feb Unemployment Rate: Expected: 8%. Previous: 7.6%.
  • 3:00 p.m. Jan Consumer Credit: Expected: -$7.0B. Previous: -$6.6B.


Isn't this starting to sound eerily familiar…

“In a higher phase of communist society... only then can the narrow horizon of bourgeois right be fully left behind and society inscribe on its banners: from each according to his ability, to each according to his needs.”

Karl Marx

FX Trading - Jobs Friday - Crap Shoot of Expectations

This is that time when we try to evaluate the expectations about the expectations, i.e. will the jobless number guess prove too low, high, or be about right. This morning it seems the number is supposed to come in worse than expected. And according to headlines this morning, that is why the dollar is lower. So one could say the expectation of the expectation is already in the price. But of course, that is no help whatsoever.

Why? Well the worse the news has been, the better it has been for the dollar on the risk aversion trade. So, the fall in the dollar this morning should reflect a jobs number that will come in better than expected, i.e. the risk appetite trade back in play. So why is worse than expected jobs supporting the dollar according to the headline writers? Who knows?

No matter, better to do right, than be right, good old Jesse Livermore warned us. Step up and take your roll of the dice.

This little expectation mind-pretzel we put together just shows how futile this game can be. A whole bunch of money is bet on these reports and it is a pure crap shoot. But then again, maybe this whole game, at least within the short-term time frames is nothing less.

Have a great weekend.