The Commodity JPY pairs have given several technical signs of a breakdown and they are all happing in unisynth.  If the breakdown we suspect takes form, we could see all the JPY pairs drop several hundred pips in the next week.

Taking a look at the chart below of the NZDJPY on the daily chart, we can see how the pair has been trending nicely above the Tenkan (white line) since early March with no closes below it.  Then it formed two candlestick reversal patterns with the 2nd one giving the 1st close below the Tenkan in over 6weeks.  Since it has been above it for over a month, this was the first kink in the armor for the bear market rally.  The pair had four days of small gains which never made it back to where the selling began, and then executed an outside reversal day or bearish engulfing pattern.  This started the 1st close below the Tenkan.  A dragonfly doji was followed by 3 days of selling with the 20EMA undergoing a stress test and failing the next day.  The first close below the 20EMA was the next sign of weakness and the pair had some aggressive selling today dropping 300 pips from top to bottom and we feel there is more to go.

What further points us south for this pair is how the oscillators have broken into new bearish territory with Momentum making new lows below the zero line and CCI printing its first negative bars since early February.  Today candle has been gaining steadily but CCI falling.  This suggests further downside.  Thus, the question comes up which is ‘where to sell this pair’?


We feel the Kijun (red line) and the 20EMA will become good rejection points with stops above the Tenkan.  Targets can be 52.25 (50% fib of entire upmove) and the cloud bottom which currently resides at 50.36 and is climbing.  A break of the cloud would suggest we are starting a whole new bear trend and the 09′ lows should come under attack real quick with a possible break below.  An alternative scenario is the pair finds support in the Kumo (cloud) and creates an upward cross of the Tenkan and Kijun which would suggest a whole new leg in the uptrend is beginning and the recent highs will be challenged.