FXCM - In all likelihood, the central bank governor's more moderate comments about the outlook US economy is an excuse to keep monetary policy unchanged as it is too early to decide whether the US economy has indeed averted a more serious slowdown. The jump in gas prices is a major risk to consumer spending and it remains to be seen whether that will have a more serious impact on the overall economy. Since the economy is not strong enough to raise interest rates, the Federal Reserve and US Treasury hopes that an appreciation of the US dollar would help to curb inflation, but we believe that they will stop short of physical intervention.