A private research group known as The Conference Board was quoted as saying there could be an economic rebound that will grow into 2010. Thomas Reuters has expected a 0.7 percent increase but the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 0.9 percent last month, a number that soared past the 0.3 percent in October and clearly surpassed the Thomas Reuters expectation.
Improvements in financial conditions, building permits for homes and the labor market boosted the index last month according to Conference Board economist Ataman Ozyildrim. The Conference Board said six of the 10 indicators it uses for the index increased last month. The biggest boost to the index came from a difference in expected long-and short-term interest rates.
Jennifer Lee, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, was quoted as saying, “I wouldn’t say that it’s all clear, but it is another piece of good news. The employment part of it is still weighing on everyone’s mind even though the number of job losses is getting smaller. We might see a pullback.”
While this does present investors with some positive news, there are negative components which include consumer expectations and the estimated factory orders for capital goods.
Economists across the globe are worried about whether economic growth in 2010 will match that of the second half of this year with such a high rate of unemployment. However, The Conference Board forecasts economic activity by measuring claims for unemployment aid, stock prices, consumer expectations, building permits for private homes, the money supply and other data.
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