As I always do, I read multiple stories a day on the economy, the markets and gold. This morning I ran across a Bloomberg report that claimed gold prices may decline with signs that economic recovery is stalling.But before I go on, I must confess. I have now made the same mistake the media has made and spelled refudiate wrong. I mean if you are going to make an entire story out of a mis-spoken word, at least spell it right. It's R-e-f-u-T-i-a-t-e with a T not a D. Surely, I jest!Now to my point, wasn't a stalling economy the impetus behind skyrocketing global gold demand to begin with? If we have learned anything, it is that a stalling economy precludes either stimulus or default. So far the choices made have favored stimulus. David Rosenberg is one of my favorite daily reads and he comments that gold has so much alure today because, It is a reflection of investor concern over the monetary stability, and Ben Bernanke and other central bankers only have to step on the printing presses whereas gold miners have to drill over two miles into the ground (gold production is lower today than it was a decade ago; hardly the same can be said for fiat currency).He also points out that today, gold comprises a mere 0.05% share of global household net worth, so small incremental allocations into bullion or gold-type investments can exert a dramatic impact. Gold cannot be printed by central banks and is a monetary metal that is no government's liability.That says to me, the current price of gold is an explosion waiting to happen. Monetary stability we have not. And supply? In an assessment found on Commodity Online provided by Arnold Bock, we learn that at today's prices, the total value of above ground gold is $5 trillion. Annual production adds a mere $73 billion to that total. If $5 trillion comprises a mere .05% share of global household net worth, a move to just 1%, would either require supply to double (which it cannot) or the price to double. And who says demand will stop there? If economic recovery is stalling, we need to ask, will the economy be allowed to deflate or will bailouts and stimulus, once gain, become the order of the day? With evidence the Fed has an innate fear of deflation, (see article) I suspect another round of stimulus is on its way. Perhaps the President's call yesterday for the extension of unemployment benefits, evidences a move back toward a stimulus-laden economy.Don't get caught in the stampede to own gold coins after everyone else decides its time. Gold as an investment is a viable diversification strategy. Economic uncertainty is more likely to drive the gold charts higher.And please, if you choose to refute (deny accuracy of) or repudiate (reject as untrue) any of my claims, make it a point to stay informed by making IBTimes.com or LearCapital.com your sources for today's gold news. Then decide for yourself.
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