Poor data across the pond coupled with another potential credit downgrade on the horizon pushed risk trades lower into the latter part of the London session. The eurozone CPI estimate was wound down to just 1.1% for January, much lower than the consensus 1.4% and down from 1.6% the prior month. So it continues to get increasingly clear that the ECB's hawkish rhetoric on inflation is still overdone. Unemployment in the eurozone came in higher than anticipated at 8.0% in December and the previous month was revised up to 7.9% from 7.8% to boot. The big news, however, was Moody's reporting that it has revised Ireland's debt rating outlook to negative – setting it up for a potential downgrade. Indeed, insurance against default in Ireland sovereign debt is now more expensive than it is for Chile.
Stocks pushed lower and gave up overnight gains with bourses in Europe down about -1% at last check. Gold has already rallied about $14 and trading near $922/oz, the highest since the financial crisis intensified in early October. EUR/USD headed about -75 pips lower on the negative news and was sitting near the critical 1.2800 support area. Ostensibly there is EUR demand for the 11am ET fix this morning and this could see a push higher here short-term. However, worse than expected US data along with any follow-through from weak global stocks into US equities should keep risk trades in FX heavy as we head into the weekend.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est
* 1/30 13:30 GMT CA Gross Domestic Product MoM NOV -0.10% -0.40%
* 1/30 13:30 GMT US GDP QoQ (Annualized) 4Q A -0.50% -5.30%
* 1/30 13:30 GMT US Personal Consumption 4Q -3.80% -3.50%
* 1/30 13:30 GMT US GDP Price Index 4Q 3.90% 0.40%
* 1/30 13:30 GMT US Core PCE QoQ 4Q 2.40% 2.00%
* 1/30 13:30 GMT US Employment Cost Index 4Q 0.70% 0.70%
* 1/30 14:45 GMT US Chicago Purchasing Manager JAN 34.1 35
* 1/30 15:00 GMT US U. of Michigan Confidence JAN F 61.9 61.9
* 1/30 15:00 GMT US NAPM-Milwaukee JAN 30 - -