Risk trades in FX recovered somewhat from the overnight rout as traders reposition for what looks to be a very risk averse NY session upcoming. Sentiment continued to worsen with European bourses shedding about -3% on average on the heels of a similar pullback in Asia shares. US futures suggest stocks are poised to make a new nearby low with the Dow currently off -135 points. Gold was better bid and is up more than $17 to 992/oz at the moment. The break above the 988 July high now sees potential to 1000 initially.

Eurozone data continued to come in weak. The most noteworthy release was the PMI composite index and it sank to just 36.2 in February from 38.3 prior – a fresh cycle low. EUR/USD managed to recover somewhat nonetheless and rose about 40 pips towards the 1.2630/40 zone. The 1.27 mark now looks like a good sort-term barrier while important support lurks by 1.2550 initially.

Data out of the UK was surprisingly upbeat with January retail sales up +0.7% versus an expected decline here. This ostensibly helped cable higher and the pair was up about 150 pips in the session towards the 1.4350 area. This is despite comments yesterday from the BOE’s Gieve that the risk of depression in the UK is real.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases (NY Session) prev est

  • 2/20 13:30 GMT US Consumer Price Index (MoM) JAN -0.80% 0.30%
  • 2/20 13:30 GMT US CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) JAN 0.00% 0.10%


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