After the biggest and fastest correction of the rally to date, the market again surged to new highs this week before trading back below. After no follow-through to the downside the last several weeks, it was time again for buyers to overwhelm the sellers in this resilient market. Despite a 10.2% unemployment rate, a troubling benchmark for the economy, select big tech stocks led the market higher.
Once the market took back the 1075-1080 zone--which was the broken trendline--a move back to highs was in the cards. Bears started to get excited during the most recent retracement, but the market has continued to signal its intent to go higher until something drastic changes. With the Federal Reserve FOMC keeping the Fed Funds target rate at 0-0.25%, investors are continuing to borrow dollars to invest in equities.
Stocks like AMZN and GOOG led the way in this move making new highs, while GS lagged this time around. Gold continued to run higher before pulling back in, and if the correction continues we will look for more opportunities to enter into a larger Gold position at more reasonable levels. Oil is basing in its upper range, and will likely get some resolution in the coming weeks.
At this point it is foolish to doubt the validity of this rally, but there are causes for caution in the most recent bounce. There is no clear leader in this move. GS has lagged and tried to play catch-up. Select tech stocks have made highs, but overall this high growth sector has not lead to surge. Volume has been somewhat light on bounces.
Buying breakouts and shorting breakdowns has not worked. Right now it is important to take quick, measured trades rather than trying to trade with an opinion about what will happen next. The charts are beginning to round off somewhat, as new highs this week were met with a quick trade back below. It will be important to see how the market behaves in the coming weeks to see whether we can continue the climb into the new year.