Euro: Euro retraced to a low of 1.3485 in the early US session yesterday from where it rebounded and is now trading at 1.3660. Euro could not hold the lows despite disappointing Trade Balance data of Eurozone and strong Retail Sales of US. The stochastic in daily and weekly chart has flattened indicating further upmove. Immediate cluster resistance remains at 1.3867 (100 Weekly EMA & 61.8% Retracement of the fall) which could hold temporarily. Breaking of this resistance may push Euro towards 1.4180. (Eur/Usd:1.3660).
Pound: Cable as expected bounced back from 1.4448 lows (55 Hourly EMA) yesterday and is currently trading higher around 1.47 levels. The daily stochastic is extremely overbought, however, not indicating a sell yet. Immediate support comes at 1.4588 (21 hourly EMA & 38.2% of the recent rise) and then at 1.4458 (21 4-hourly EMA) whereas the resistance is traced around 1.4960 (100 Daily EMA & previous high as on Feb 9th, 2009) which could be held. Going long at dips (support) is suggested. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4682)
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair surged almost 170 pips in yesterday€™s session from the bids of 95.62 to 97.35 highs. This morning the pair further strengthened and is trading close to the 200 Daily EMA at 98.16. The daily and 4-hourly charts are indicating further upside. As long as 95.50 support holds, further rally upto 100.10 levels (55 Weekly EMA) is still in favour of the Pair. Long could be initiated around 97 levels for 70-80 pips. (Usd/Jpy: 98.18)
Rupee: The rupee opened the week with a strong note yesterday and ended 18 paisa higher at 50.46 per dollar. The primary reason for this was the 5% rise in the local shares and the rising fund inflows. This morning it opened higher and tested 50.20 mark in the early trade with the expectations of more fund inflows. However, this strength in rupee is just the matter of time before it again takes a U-turn. (USD/INR: 50.26)
Swiss Franc: The Usd/Chf pair held strongly below the 200 daily EMA (1.1341) and fell to close the session at 1.1247. The 4-hourly chart indicates a downside while the daily chart is oversold. Resistance continues to be around 1.1330 and shorts in the pair can be considered below these levels for intraday 80 pips. (Usd/Chf:1.1230)
Australian Dollar: Aussie rose 156 pips yesterday from 0.6904 and breached the 0.70 mark. This morning it is sustaining above the 0.70 levels and is heading towards the next target of 0.7230 (200 Monthly EMA). Major charts are over-bought but room for further upside is still there. Longs can be considered at dips around 0.7020 (21 hourly EMA) and around 0.6950 (55 hourly EMA) for intraday profits. (Aud/Usd : 7074)
Gold: Gold took resistance of 61.8% retracement and shed close to $21 yesterday testing the bids of $935 (21 daily EMA $932). The daily and hourly charts are indicating a downside and gold can retest the $930 mark. The 4-hourly chart is flat near the over-sold region and strong resistance comes around $944 -$947 levels. (Gold: $942.80)
Dollar index: DX has turned neutral and is currently trading near 83.77, below the resistance of 84.60. The support stays at 82 levels which if broken can turn the outlook majorly bearish for DX. The stochastic is flat in over-sold region at 12.34%.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.