Euro: Euro survived after the ILO of Germany released. From the lows of 1.3418, Euro surged in the US session to 1.3629. The Daily stochastic is overbought and is showing a downside while the 4-hourly chart is neutral. Pull back upto 1.3360 (55 4-hourly EMA) could be witnessed where going long on Euro could be considered for 100 pips and with stops below 1.3230 (100 Daily EMA). Immediate cluster resistance comes at 1.3870 (100 Weekly EMA & 61.8% Retracement) which could hold temporarily. (Eur/Usd:1.3568).
Pound: Cable remained volatile in yesterday€™s trade as it fell to a low of 1.4515 from 1.4724 in the US session after the good Home sales and durable goods data. Technically, the 4-hourly chart is oversold while the daily chart is still flat in the overbought region. On the downside Cable is being initially supported at the daily rising trendline at 1.4520 levels. Holding above 1.4445 (55 Daily EMA) could push Cable back to 1.47 levels and higher. Selling around 1.4850 for 80-100 pips could be considered. (Gbp/Usd: 1.4589)
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair traded sideways in 130 pips yesterday continuing to take resistance at 98.35 (200 Daily EMA). The Daily charts are yet to reach the overbought region and the 4-hourly charts are indicating buying pressure. Break-out on the upside could push the pair higher upto 100 levels. Immediate downside support is at 97.00 (Converging EMA€™s in 4-hourly & hourly charts) where longs could be considered for 70-80 pips. (Usd/Jpy: 97.65)
Rupee: The local unit traded in a range yesterday breaking past the 51 mark. However, it could not sustain above 51 and closed flat at 50.73/74 against the greenback. The dollar inflows and the rising stocks helped the rupee to gain in the later session. However, the month end dollar demand from the importers and oil refiners may curb the sharp gains in rupee. A trade band of 50.30 € 51.00 can be seen during the day by the local currency. The primary trend remains bearish for the rupee. (USD/INR: 50.52)
Swiss Franc: The Usd/Chf pair plunged to 1.1169 before closing at 1.1211 taking strong support of the 50% retracement of the rise in the daily chart (1.1170). The daily has flattened in the oversold region currently while the weekly chart is giving selling bias in the pair. Decisive break of this support can push the pair further down to 1.0970 levels (38.2% Retracement). Initiate shorts around 1.1340 for 80-90 pips. (Usd/Chf:1.1230)
Australian Dollar: Aussie was volatile yesterday trading between 0.7046 and 0.6902. The daily and hourly charts give selling bias in the pair while the 4-hourly chart indicates an up-move. Initial support comes in at 0.6956 (21 4-hourly EMA) and then at 0.6890 (38.2% retracement of the rise in the 4-hourly chart) where going long for intraday 70 pips is suggested. Alternatively, resistance comes in at 0.7220 (200 Monthly EMA). Going short in Aussie at higher levels could be considered. (Aud/Usd: 0.6980)
Gold: Gold traded in the range of $24 yesterday. It dipped down to $916 but the concern over the strength of the US dollar helped bolster gold prices in the later session. The daily and 4-hourly charts give selling pressure in gold while the hourly charts are flat in the over-sold region. Initial support comes in at $924(200 4-hourly EMA) and then at $910(55 daily EMA). On the upside $960 holds strong.
Dollar index: The resistance of 84.61 holds good for DI as it trades at 84.24 this morning with the stochastic turning flat in the over-bought region at 16.75%.
These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proffered with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice. Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.