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Oil and Euro: The ebbs and flows of market momentum are at play again, and really do justify the reason to review trend and momentum reads from a 4 hour chart. When looking at the major pairs, only euro has a trend (Long) that is at odds with the momentum read (Oversold), therefore raising the question as to why it has not moved, when the historical long drivers are all in place. The answer? Oil. We can lay near term oil charts over the euro and see a near 90% correlation in the two.
Now look at an oil chart, and we can see that demand reductions caught up with futures prices this week, and to close the divergence the market shaved 6% off crude prices. That large of a haircut takes time to re-build block orders, but if oil holds 64.00 support, and equities hold in the green, euro may find buyers.
Major Pairs Dollar Swing Point: The six major pairs trends are short-dollar, and will take at least two sessions of consistent Usd buying to change. The rejection of the major pairs test of yearly resistance have not as yet changed the technical outlook that the dollar is still more easily sold than bought. This is a pivotal session to then gauge the strength of.
Global Markets Long Trends, Long Momentum: The global drivers of the Usd are in long mode. The lack of volume is a major issue that will need to be addressed before things can go too much further, either way. The equity markets have not moved in-line with commodities and forex, take care until they all get aligned, because Wednesday's moves are against the trend.