We are keeping an eye on Eur/Usd holding 1.4100, or not, as it is the area that the pair has previously bounced from. The potential in Usd/Cad to reverse higher is peaking our interest, in the pair that may have the lost to give back, both fundamentally and technically, over the coming weeks if the dollar finds buyers.
Usd/Jpy continues to be a watch-list pair that has potential to generate price action around 95.20, the 200 day SMA area. Finally, we are looking at Gbp/Usd as a pair that literally has three hundred pips either side of it to move, before disturbing fair value orders against the Usd.
Global equity and commodity markets are doing their part to hold support, and once again we get to see that low volume, low momentum, market conditions can allow for some easy tests of near-term support and resistance.
Members trade plan numbers are close to hitting, but be very aware that in the run-up to Durable Goods Orders from the U.S. at 08:30 EDT, and then 10:00 EDT Oil Inventories, and 14:00 EDT Fed meeting minutes from the FOMC, that getting filled may lead to quick reversals.
Take the pending orders off ahead of the red flag calendar releases, and instead play the numbers after the reports are out, and only if momentum and volume increases so that all major pairs are moving as one, as far as possible.
The major pairs are set in a short-dollar trend, with some oversold momentum reads that will allow room to move against the dollar, but be aware, those showing neutral reads may allow an allow easy reversals. Overall, looking for continued Usd weakness if equity markets find buyers, if not, it is back to the sideways grind.
The global drivers of the Usd are building into a solid long mode that will soon have the Usd under extreme pressure to drop in value if it can just draw in an extra flow of volume. Being in oversold momentum reads, and with a solid long trend, could allow enough room for each to move higher and test the 4 hour chart channels, if equity earnings reports can hold in the positive. The lack of volume is a major issue that will need to be addressed before things can go too much further, either way.
The art of contrarian trading is the art of a tenured professional. Knowing how to easily determine the four hour trend, and then to buy support, or sell resistance in-line with that trend is the easiest way to trade any market, in any market times. It may not always pay huge rewards, there are too many market variables for that, but those traders who stay in the game until retirement, are invariably Contrarian Traders who buy the pull-back rather than the new break-out