• The Energy Report - Ring Hopes and Rising Oil

    Cease Fire Hope rise along with the oil market. While Secretary of State Hillary Clinton makes her way to the Middle East to broker what more than likely will be a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. With an Israeli ground offensive most likely averted the focus will go back to the global economic outlook and something as mundane as weather.
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    Dec. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 151’31 and the 10 Yr. Notes unchanged at 134’01. I’m still willing to trade this market from the short side on rallies above the 152’04 level and recommend using a protective buy stop at 152’22 for protection which will be a new recent high. Support remains at 150’04.
  • The Energy Report - Carbon Pro Quo?

    After the Obama admistration backed denied that they were going to try to institute a Carbon tax contradicting Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, is it possible that a back room deal between the energy industry and the administration could open the door for a new tax coming to a gas station near you? Is it possible that the Obama admistration is making the energy industry a deal that they just can’t refuse? In other words if the industry backs off its opposition to a carbon tax the Administration might get off their backs? If they continue to oppose it l the administration might make their lives a living shall we say night mare? Does the energy industry believe that they can make up for the tax by being able to produce more oil and gas and will Republicans join in if the administration but more federal lands in play? Well that is my take on a Bloomberg article and my understanding of Politics done the Chicago way.
  • Brent Crude Oil: Pivot Point Signal 16.11.2012

    Sell at 107,79 Stop Loss at 108,29 Take Profit at 107,29
  • The Energy Report - Gaza Grip

    Oil prices that have been wafting in a sea of economic uncertainty rocketed on reports of an Israeli rocket attack that killed a top Hamas military leader. Fears that this could “open up the gates of hell” as Hamas has promised, sent traders looking for some upside protection. Israel says that the attack was in response to the fact that Palestinian militants have been using this area in the Gaza Strip as a base to fire rockets which they have been doing in recent days. Oil traders feared that the conflict could draw in others, such as Egypt, and could put at risk ship traffic along the Suez canal. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at the request of Egypt and Morocco but it was unclear whether it will calm down the situation.
  • The Energy Report - It’s the End of QE as We Know It!

    That's great, it starts with a head-fake, market shakes, and dive planes – Ben Bernanke is now afraid. Eye of a hurricane, suddenly rates turn- banks serves its own needs, regardless of the world needs. Tighten up a notch speed, lend no, strength no. Fiscal matter clatter with fear of height, debt plight, gas on a fire, represent the seven games in a government for hire and a wealth tax hike left wing, wasn't cutting in a hurry with the Chinese breathing down your neck team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered drop. Look at that cash drain! Fine then, uh oh, oversold, capitulation, common stock, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. Fed said it’s a misread, listen to market bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched. It's the end of the QE as we know it. It's the end of QE as we know it. It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 151’15 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 133’25.5. Yesterday the Bonds traded as high as 152’15 slightly above resistance of 152’04 an area stated in my last “Report” (dated 11/12/2012) where I am willing to initiate a trade from the short side of the market. If you went short, either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop just below your entry level. If the market should trade below the 151’00 level lower your protective buy stop to the 151’22 level. Support remains in the 150’04 area. I still have a long term negative bias, that being said, I am still looking for short term trades, cognitive at the moment of Fed policy and the coming “Fiscal Cliff”. If you are looking for a long term trade consider out of the money putsa for either Jan. or Mar. expiration.
  • Alpari Grain Report 11/13

    Fridays crop report by the USDA had no bullish surprises but came in slightly over pre-report trade estimates. Soybean production was estimated at 2.971 billion bushels up 111 million bushels from the month prior and 78 m.b. over the average pre-report estimate and over the highest estimate of 2.959. Ending stocks were 140 m.b. up 10 m.b. from last month and 7 m.b. over the average estimate. Clearly demand more than offset the production increases, but November bean export look to slow measurably now and that could lead to a bigger increase in ending stocks for the December report.
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    Dec. Bonds are currently 1 lower at 151’19 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2.5 lower at 133’26.5. Expect a slow day in the Bonds as the cash market is closed in observance of Veteran’s Day holiday. For the moment support is the 150’04 level and resistance 152’04. I am currently on the sidelines with a somewhat negative bias.
  • The Energy Report

    While the oil market is falling on fears of slowing growth and the possibility of going of the fiscal cliff in a barrel, long term the outlook for the US energy Industry is looking better all the time. Not only did the Obama administration has no intention of proposing carbon tax on emissions, Bloomberg citing the Hill reports, citing unidentified White House official it seems that because of the miracle of fraccing or fracking if you prefer, the United States of America is on track to be the world’s largest oil producer.
  • The Energy Report -Just whose recession is it anyway?

    As we head towards the fiscal cliff and the markets from gold to bonds to stocks to oil start to price in a recession the question becomes, just whose recession is it anyway? Is this going to be a Democratic recession or a Republican recession? Today President Obama may give a bit of a view on this fiscal cliff hanger in what could become a defining moment for the success or failure of his second term. Now some thought I was a little hard on the President and Harry Reid, even after Mr. Reid’s comments about a tax increase mandate, but in reality I was trying to point out the dangers of that rigid position especially when it comes to the implementation of a carbon tax that would drive an already struggling middle class into economic oblivion.
  • Alpari Grain Report 11/09

    Thursdays weekly export sales report, our primary report for demand trends, was disappointing across the board. Wheat exports for the new marketing year ending June 1 was a dismal 209 t.m.t. down 42% from the previous week and 40% under a weak four week average. Big world wheat buyers like Egypt were absent again from the purchasing list. These big buyers of high quality wheat for milling foods for human consumption are necessary to sell to for size to be price bullish on futures. We remain, as we have all year, a port for small purchases of low-quality wheat for the animal feed ration.
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    Dec. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 150’01. If you went short above 150’15 yesterday (the high was 150’19) either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop at 151’06 for protection. If your intention is to look for a longer term trade, lower your buy stop to break even if the market trades below the 149’26 level. Support is currently the 148’08 level.
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    Dec. Bonds are currently 1’26 higher at 150’03 and the 10 Yr. Note 29 higher at 133’20. As expected, an Obama victory was friendly to Bonds as the market will percieve a continued policy of easing at the very least through 2013. Over the last couple of weeks I have posed the question in the “Report”, “Would you recognize an improving economy?”. I’m going to float the premise that things are slowly improving and that ultimately rates are going to slowly inch higher. That being said, I maintain my negative bias and will continue to look for trades from the short side of the market on rallies, not looking for a home run, but willing to take singles and doubles. Resistance is currently the 150’15-151’00 level, an area where I am willing to enter the market from the short side. Support is currently 148’08.
  • The Energy Report - Pricing in More Pain

    Futures markets correctly priced in an Obama victory yesterday and all of the economic pain that will go along with it. As I have said weeks ago, before it was a popular topic, that an Obama victory would be wildly bullish for commodities as it would mean a vote of confidence for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his policies of easing. Of course at the same time that means that the market is pricing in perhaps a decade of more economic pain. The markets are saying that under an Obama presidency get ready for continued high unemployment, higher budget deficits, higher taxes, and higher gasoline prices and less job creation.
  • Brent Crude Oil: Pivot Point Signal 07.11.2012

    Buy at 110,80 Stop Loss at 110,30 Take Profit at 111,30
  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    Dec. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 148’31 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 133’01.5. Last Friday we covered short positions on the break after the Unemployment Report giving us a small short term profit. I still remain negative on this market but will remain on the sidelines for the moment and wait for the election results before re-entering this market. Given the Economic Plans by the two candidates my gut feeling is that the Bonds will break on a Romney win and hold firm on an Obama victory for the short term.
  • The Energy Report - Is the rebound in oil a good thing?

    Well if you consider that perhaps it is a sign that things on the East Coast may have a chance at some sense of normal, that would be a good thing. Yet the truth is that it may be too soon for the market to be reacting to the rebound in demand. The late day spike seemed to start in Brent Crude and could be a sign of the market growing unease with the violence on the Saudi Yemen border. Brent crude spiked late in the session on a report that two Saudi border guards were killed in a terror attack on the Yemen border. The tensions seem to rise even more when Saudi Arabia abruptly changed its interior minister.
  • The Energy Report - Hey Bro, Can you spare some gas.

    Despite the gas line in New Jersey the market tanked on the reality of demand destruction. Oh sure the better than expected jobs number led to a major break as the risk off trade came into play. Word that Colonial Pipeline. Bloomberg reported that the Colonial Pipeline Co. began deliveries from its Linden, New Jersey, fuel tank farm to customers with operable terminals while two refineries in the state remained shut after Hurricane Sandy.
  • The Energy Report - The Northeast Triangle

    Problems continue to mount in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and the inability to open up the ports is creating a northeast triangle. Like the Bermuda triangle before it oil-tankers are caught in some type of a weird twilight zone just floating around unable to off load it wares. The unknown as to when the heavily damaged ports can reopen has already caused movement in the markets here and around the globe. We saw heating oil sell, despite a somewhat bullish drawdown in supply, in the weekly Energy Information Administration supply report and it was led lower by a sharply lower gas-oil market in Europe. The market reacting to the incredible demand destruction in the aftermath of the storm and supply that was supposed to be destined for the United States.