Commentary

  • Brent Crude Oil: Pivot Point Signal 16.11.2012

    November 16 2012 3:14 AM

    Sell at 107,79 Stop Loss at 108,29 Take Profit at 107,29

  • The Energy Report - Gaza Grip

    November 15 2012 12:30 PM

    Oil prices that have been wafting in a sea of economic uncertainty rocketed on reports of an Israeli rocket attack that killed a top Hamas military leader. Fears that this could “open up the gates of hell” as Hamas has promised, sent traders looking for some upside protection. Israel says that the attack was in response to the fact that Palestinian militants have been using this area in the Gaza Strip as a base to fire rockets which they have been doing in recent days. Oil traders feared that the conflict could draw in others, such as Egypt, and could put at risk ship traffic along the Suez canal. The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting at the request of Egypt and Morocco but it was unclear whether it will calm down the situation.

  • The Energy Report - It’s the End of QE as We Know It!

    November 14 2012 11:05 AM

    That's great, it starts with a head-fake, market shakes, and dive planes – Ben Bernanke is now afraid. Eye of a hurricane, suddenly rates turn- banks serves its own needs, regardless of the world needs. Tighten up a notch speed, lend no, strength no. Fiscal matter clatter with fear of height, debt plight, gas on a fire, represent the seven games in a government for hire and a wealth tax hike left wing, wasn't cutting in a hurry with the Chinese breathing down your neck team by team reporters baffled, trump, tethered drop. Look at that cash drain! Fine then, uh oh, oversold, capitulation, common stock, but it'll do. Save yourself, serve yourself. Fed said it’s a misread, listen to market bleed. Tell me with the rapture and the reverent in the right - right. You vitriolic, patriotic, slam, fight, bright light, feeling pretty psyched. It's the end of the QE as we know it. It's the end of QE as we know it. It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    November 14 2012 10:26 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 151’15 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 133’25.5. Yesterday the Bonds traded as high as 152’15 slightly above resistance of 152’04 an area stated in my last “Report” (dated 11/12/2012) where I am willing to initiate a trade from the short side of the market. If you went short, either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop just below your entry level. If the market should trade below the 151’00 level lower your protective buy stop to the 151’22 level. Support remains in the 150’04 area. I still have a long term negative bias, that being said, I am still looking for short term trades, cognitive at the moment of Fed policy and the coming “Fiscal Cliff”. If you are looking for a long term trade consider out of the money putsa for either Jan. or Mar. expiration.

  • Alpari Grain Report 11/13

    November 13 2012 6:29 PM

    Fridays crop report by the USDA had no bullish surprises but came in slightly over pre-report trade estimates. Soybean production was estimated at 2.971 billion bushels up 111 million bushels from the month prior and 78 m.b. over the average pre-report estimate and over the highest estimate of 2.959. Ending stocks were 140 m.b. up 10 m.b. from last month and 7 m.b. over the average estimate. Clearly demand more than offset the production increases, but November bean export look to slow measurably now and that could lead to a bigger increase in ending stocks for the December report.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    November 12 2012 9:36 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 1 lower at 151’19 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2.5 lower at 133’26.5. Expect a slow day in the Bonds as the cash market is closed in observance of Veteran’s Day holiday. For the moment support is the 150’04 level and resistance 152’04. I am currently on the sidelines with a somewhat negative bias.

  • The Energy Report

    November 12 2012 9:31 AM

    While the oil market is falling on fears of slowing growth and the possibility of going of the fiscal cliff in a barrel, long term the outlook for the US energy Industry is looking better all the time. Not only did the Obama administration has no intention of proposing carbon tax on emissions, Bloomberg citing the Hill reports, citing unidentified White House official it seems that because of the miracle of fraccing or fracking if you prefer, the United States of America is on track to be the world’s largest oil producer.

  • The Energy Report -Just whose recession is it anyway?

    November 09 2012 9:33 AM

    As we head towards the fiscal cliff and the markets from gold to bonds to stocks to oil start to price in a recession the question becomes, just whose recession is it anyway? Is this going to be a Democratic recession or a Republican recession? Today President Obama may give a bit of a view on this fiscal cliff hanger in what could become a defining moment for the success or failure of his second term. Now some thought I was a little hard on the President and Harry Reid, even after Mr. Reid’s comments about a tax increase mandate, but in reality I was trying to point out the dangers of that rigid position especially when it comes to the implementation of a carbon tax that would drive an already struggling middle class into economic oblivion.

  • Alpari Grain Report 11/09

    November 09 2012 4:40 AM

    Thursdays weekly export sales report, our primary report for demand trends, was disappointing across the board. Wheat exports for the new marketing year ending June 1 was a dismal 209 t.m.t. down 42% from the previous week and 40% under a weak four week average. Big world wheat buyers like Egypt were absent again from the purchasing list. These big buyers of high quality wheat for milling foods for human consumption are necessary to sell to for size to be price bullish on futures. We remain, as we have all year, a port for small purchases of low-quality wheat for the animal feed ration.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    November 08 2012 12:16 PM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 150’01. If you went short above 150’15 yesterday (the high was 150’19) either take the short term profit or use a protective buy stop at 151’06 for protection. If your intention is to look for a longer term trade, lower your buy stop to break even if the market trades below the 149’26 level. Support is currently the 148’08 level.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    November 08 2012 3:41 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 1’26 higher at 150’03 and the 10 Yr. Note 29 higher at 133’20. As expected, an Obama victory was friendly to Bonds as the market will percieve a continued policy of easing at the very least through 2013. Over the last couple of weeks I have posed the question in the “Report”, “Would you recognize an improving economy?”. I’m going to float the premise that things are slowly improving and that ultimately rates are going to slowly inch higher. That being said, I maintain my negative bias and will continue to look for trades from the short side of the market on rallies, not looking for a home run, but willing to take singles and doubles. Resistance is currently the 150’15-151’00 level, an area where I am willing to enter the market from the short side. Support is currently 148’08.

  • The Energy Report - Pricing in More Pain

    November 07 2012 10:15 AM

    Futures markets correctly priced in an Obama victory yesterday and all of the economic pain that will go along with it. As I have said weeks ago, before it was a popular topic, that an Obama victory would be wildly bullish for commodities as it would mean a vote of confidence for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and his policies of easing. Of course at the same time that means that the market is pricing in perhaps a decade of more economic pain. The markets are saying that under an Obama presidency get ready for continued high unemployment, higher budget deficits, higher taxes, and higher gasoline prices and less job creation.

  • Brent Crude Oil: Pivot Point Signal 07.11.2012

    November 07 2012 3:19 AM

    Buy at 110,80 Stop Loss at 110,30 Take Profit at 111,30

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    November 06 2012 9:31 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 9 lower at 148’31 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 133’01.5. Last Friday we covered short positions on the break after the Unemployment Report giving us a small short term profit. I still remain negative on this market but will remain on the sidelines for the moment and wait for the election results before re-entering this market. Given the Economic Plans by the two candidates my gut feeling is that the Bonds will break on a Romney win and hold firm on an Obama victory for the short term.

  • The Energy Report - Is the rebound in oil a good thing?

    November 06 2012 8:25 AM

    Well if you consider that perhaps it is a sign that things on the East Coast may have a chance at some sense of normal, that would be a good thing. Yet the truth is that it may be too soon for the market to be reacting to the rebound in demand. The late day spike seemed to start in Brent Crude and could be a sign of the market growing unease with the violence on the Saudi Yemen border. Brent crude spiked late in the session on a report that two Saudi border guards were killed in a terror attack on the Yemen border. The tensions seem to rise even more when Saudi Arabia abruptly changed its interior minister.

  • The Energy Report - Hey Bro, Can you spare some gas.

    November 05 2012 10:20 AM

    Despite the gas line in New Jersey the market tanked on the reality of demand destruction. Oh sure the better than expected jobs number led to a major break as the risk off trade came into play. Word that Colonial Pipeline. Bloomberg reported that the Colonial Pipeline Co. began deliveries from its Linden, New Jersey, fuel tank farm to customers with operable terminals while two refineries in the state remained shut after Hurricane Sandy.

  • The Energy Report - The Northeast Triangle

    November 02 2012 7:51 AM

    Problems continue to mount in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and the inability to open up the ports is creating a northeast triangle. Like the Bermuda triangle before it oil-tankers are caught in some type of a weird twilight zone just floating around unable to off load it wares. The unknown as to when the heavily damaged ports can reopen has already caused movement in the markets here and around the globe. We saw heating oil sell, despite a somewhat bullish drawdown in supply, in the weekly Energy Information Administration supply report and it was led lower by a sharply lower gas-oil market in Europe. The market reacting to the incredible demand destruction in the aftermath of the storm and supply that was supposed to be destined for the United States.

  • Brent inches below $108 ahead of U.S. jobs data

    November 02 2012 3:38 AM

    Brent crude slipped below $108 a barrel on Friday as investors look ahead to key jobs data from the United States for more signs of economic recovery, which would boost fuel demand. Data from the United States and China this week pointed to some stabilization in the global recovery trend, but investors remained skeptical about a sustained improvement in the fragile economy.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    November 01 2012 5:14 PM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 148’22 and the 10 Yr. Note down 8.5 at 132’24.5. This morning’s Non-Farm Productivity Report showed an increase of 1.9% vs. average expectations 2.0%. Weekly Jobless Claims were down 9,000 to 363,000 vs. average expectations of a decline of 3,000. ADP Private Sector Jobs Report showed an increase of 158,000. I still have a negative bias and remain a seller for short term trades (1-3 days) above the 148’26 level. Yesterday the market gave an opportunity to cover short positions from Tues. recommendation trading as low as 148’01. For the near term support is currently 147’26 and resistance 149’01. Monthly Unemployment Report tomorrow.

  • Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report 11/01

    November 01 2012 10:17 AM

    December Chicago wheat was trading 6 cents higher near 7:30 am CST. Outside market forces look positive today and news of very poor crop conditions ahead of dormancy for the winter wheat crop helped to support. A revision down in Russia wheat production and news of a very poor start to the winter wheat crop overnight helped to support solid gains. A dry outlook for the central and northern plains for the next week added to the positive tone. The weekly Winter Wheat Planting report showed that 88% of the crop is planted compared to 81% last week and 86% last year.