Commentary

  • The Energy Report - Storm Surge Corrected!

    October 29 2012 9:53 AM

    As the East Coast and the largest city in the United States gets ready for Franken-storm the energy markets will price in the risk and the balance between lost supply and the destruction of demand. While the storm will shut down 6.5% of US refining capacity and motorists will top off their tank the shutdown of major cities and the expected power outages may take a toll on demand unlike anything we have seen before. The impact on demand may not last for hours but more than likely for days. This could be the biggest demand destruction event in history. The East Coast is by far the largest consumer of gasoline as they consumed 3,20200 barrels per-day.

  • Alpari Grain Report 10/26

    October 27 2012 4:10 AM

    Thursdays weekly export sales report drew a negative response from futures. The report tells us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment and becomes our best report on demand fundamentals. Corn sales were 142 t.m.t. down 13% from the prior week. Average sales the last four weeks were 159 t.m.t. Average weekly sales for October 2011 were 1.161 m.m.t. and October 2010 569 t.m.t.. The high price of corn in October 2011 was 4.50, October 2011 7.50 and October 1 this year's 7.75. Price rations commodity. That's the purpose of the market. But corn exports are sharply lower than a year ago as a result of world demand for feed grains increasing for three consecutive years lowering our corn ending stocks to historically low levels, while production issues failed to keep pace. The high price is rationing the crop but the government as well has played a role in rationing.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    October 26 2012 9:29 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 19 higher at 147’10 and the 10 Yr. Notes 10 higher at 132’07. I continue with my long term negative bias and look to be a seller on strong rallies. At the moment I will be a seller above 148’26 if the market allows. This morning’s GDP number of up 2.0% was slightly better than expectations of 1.8%.

  • The Energy Report Friday -Sandy, Cant You See?

    October 26 2012 9:02 AM

    Sandy Can’t you see, that you will cause misery? The refiners made a start but now you could tear them apart. Oh please go out to sea! Hurricane Sandy is far from a dandy threatening to be one of the worst storms in history. Because it will blow away ghosts and goblins it is being called the “Frankenstorm”. It will also blow energy demand. Already oil prices that were under pressure as downgrade rumors swirled and we took another hit after Apple had lousy earnings. Who knew I-PADS ran on oil? Really they blamed rising commodity costs and increasing competition.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    October 25 2012 10:14 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 1’01 lower at 146’14 and the 10 Yr. Note 17 lower at 131’27. News out of Europe and Asia that the pace of slowing economies is not quite as disparate as once thought has bumped the rate on the 30Yr. Bond to just above the 3.0% level. This morning’s Weekly Jobless Claims showed a decline of 23,000 and Durable Goods orders were up 9.9% vs. expectations of 7.8%. The FOMC has left rates unchanged and will continue their strategy of buying $40 billion worth of long maturity treasuries per month for the near future. What is “up in the air” for the moment is Bernanke’s continuing tenure as Fed Chair, especially if Romney should pervail in the upcoming election. A new Fed chair could could signal an end to continued near zero rates for short term instruments. I maintain my negative bias and will continue to be a seller on sharp rallies.

  • The Energy Report - Nothing Bearish About It

    October 25 2012 8:10 AM

    If you were trying to find anything in the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee statement, well forget about it. The Federal Reserve showed little signs of decision and it is all steam ahead with unlimited easing. While the market is still fretting about Europe and China it is clear that the Fed will still have their back. Even the concerns that the Japan’s spate with China over some islands, could add to further slowing in the region, it seems that may be offset somewhat by the markets expectation that Japan is getting ready to act and pump more yen into their sagging economy. Plus in the UK they got an Olympic sized bounce out of negative growth inspired in part by the Queen sailing into the Olympic village in a parachute. I am sure that helped alcohol sales as well.

  • The Energy Report - The World is Falling Apart!

    October 24 2012 8:57 AM

    Wow, I miss one day and the world falls apart! Yesterday I was honored to speak at Loyola’s Women of Wisdom event and when my speech was over my voicemail was overflowing. It seems that every time I miss a day some catastrophe strikes the world. So if President Obama is right that when he took office the low gas price was a sign of economic doom the biggest gasoline price drop in history probably does bode well for his reelection.

  • Alpari Grain Report 10/24

    October 24 2012 3:20 AM

    Monday's crop progress report showed little improvement in harvest from the week prior. Corn harvest is now 87% complete, versus 79% the week prior. Lagging behind was Ohio at 50%, Pennsylvanian 58%, Michigan 48% and Indiana 72%. Unless those Eastern grain belt states get to it this week, next week looks terrible for harvest. WXRISK.com the AG weather site sees a hurricane now in the Caribbean hitting the East Coast Sunday, October 28 and Monday 29.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    October 23 2012 10:21 AM

  • The Energy Report - Golden Slumber!

    October 22 2012 10:00 AM

    At the same time the Wall Street Journal raised the possibility of a gold backed Eurobond as a way out of this crisis. Calling it a golden solution for Europe’s debt crisis they suggested that Europe go for the gold. The Journal said that “The idea is not to sell the stuff. Instead, the proposal is to bring down borrowing costs by using gold to guarantee the partial repayment of bonds to investors in case of a default. Italy's gold reserves would cover 24% of its estimated borrowing needs over the next two years and Portugal 30%. If the two countries could issue some unsecured debt at the same time, they could bridge an even longer period. The Journal says that hypothetically it might help Italy to avoid asking its neighbors for a bailout and aid Portugal to regain access to the bond markets.

  • The Phil Flynn Energy Report - Trying To Find Something To Believe In!

    October 19 2012 9:37 AM

    On the 25th anniversary of the 1987 stock-market crash traders are once again trying to find something to believe in. After yesterday’s Google’s earnings debacle, distrust of China’s GDP data and fears that Europe won’t act forcefully enough to stem problems in Spain and Greece is causing a lack of confidence sell-off. Yet while oil toils and precious metals falter the heating oil gasoline spread continues to rock.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    October 18 2012 9:59 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 9 higher at 146’30. This mornings Weekly Jobless claims were up 46K vs. expectations of up 23K causing Bonds to rally off of recent lows of 146’10. Earlier in the week we took profits from recent short positions in the 148’15 area. To be honest I am a bit surprised that the market traded as low as it did over the last couple of sessions taking out near term support in the 147’09 area. For the long term I still remain overall negative but feel that it is important to wait for sharp rallies to sell into this market keeping in mind Fed action in regards to Quantitative Easing and “Operation Twist”. For the near term support is currently 146’12 and resistance the 149’00 area.

  • Alpari Grain Report 10/16

    October 16 2012 4:41 PM

    Monday's weekly crop progress reports meant little to prices as were winding down the harvest for corn and beans and our condition reports, once aggressively traded, are now over. Corn harvest came in at 79% complete versus the five year average of 38%. This skewed difference was, the results of the earliest planting dates on record which led to early maturity then harvest. Laggers were Indiana at 61% and Ohio 31% harvested.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    October 16 2012 9:45 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 29 lower at 148’17. Better than expected German consumer confidence numbers have given equities and the Euro a boost and consequently a break in Bonds. If you went short at yesterday’s resistance of the 149’26 area, take the short term profit.

  • The Energy Report - Will You Just Ask for Your Bailout Already?

    October 16 2012 7:58 AM

    Greece will get its bailout. Spain will be rescued! So why the heck did we ever doubt it? Yesterday the doubts crept into the market place as the European politicians played a game of economic chicken trying to get a sense of who might blink. Today the market is coming back on yet another story that indeed it will just be a matter of time before Spain asks for help. In the mean time the oil market plays a game of risk on risk off as this economic mating ritual plays out. I feel so used!

  • The Energy Report - Oil Enigma’s

    October 15 2012 8:58 AM

    The emerging markets are whining about quantitative easing and the Iranians are getting more desperate as their economy continues to tumble. The world is lowering demand expectations for oil global production is close to a 15 year high. Hedge funds cut back bullish commodity bets and China’s inflation in near the lowest level in 2 years yet oil is still holding its own.

  • Alpari Grain Report 9/18

    September 18 2012 4:43 PM

    Sunday night into Monday saw the grains slowly dissolve as old bulls sold long held positions and new traders sold short. It took the entire night and day session to finish the selling until finally December corn settled down $.33, beans down its $.70 limit and week off $.44. Several issues were responsible. The first was failure of the Friday, September 14 European Central Bank meeting to agree to a timetable to resolve the euro debt crisis. Finance Ministers fought over every issue of a potent...

  • The Phil Flynn Energy Report

    September 18 2012 8:25 AM

    What do you get when you cross and options expiration Rosh Hashanah? The answer is a $3 dollar price drop in oil market in one minute. While oil's big surprise move was made on light holiday volume and during the last hour of options expiration just looking at the charts it is possible that the move could be what could be a technical game changer. Is it possible that the fundamentals for oil might be turning bearish?

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    September 17 2012 9:49 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 145'08 and the 10 Yr. Notes 5 higher at 132'02. On last Thursday the Fed announced another round of "Quantitative Easing" with the proposed purchasing of up to 40 billion dollars woth of Mortgage Backed Securities on a monthly basis. The market reacted to this by breaking the Bond market from the 147'00 level to the low 144'00's because of the inflationary implications of such an action. In the face of this short term instruments rallied...

  • Alpari Grain Report 9/14

    September 14 2012 3:52 PM

    Wednesday's USDA monthly crop report came in line with the pre-report range of guesses but not right on the average estimate, creating some volatility on the day. Corn production was put at an estimate of 10.727 billion bushels down 52 million bushels from last month, but 307 m.b. higher than the average pre-report trade estimate. So it was bullish in the big picture but not as bullish as expected and how the trade was positioned, leading to corn pushing $.10-$.16 lower in the opening range. ...