Alpari Grain Report 9/14
September 14 2012 3:52 PM
Wednesday's USDA monthly crop report came in line with the pre-report range of guesses but not right on the average estimate, creating some volatility on the day. Corn production was put at an estimate of 10.727 billion bushels down 52 million bushels from last month, but 307 m.b. higher than the average pre-report trade estimate. So it was bullish in the big picture but not as bullish as expected and how the trade was positioned, leading to corn pushing $.10-$.16 lower in the opening range. ...
The Energy Report - UNLIMITED!
September 14 2012 8:50 AM
Think of all the possibilities! They are unlimited especially after the Federal Reserve used the nuclear option with open ended QE3D and an extension of the low interest rate pledge for another year! Commodity bulls will be dancing the twist as the music plays on with the Fed buying the long end and selling the short end in what can only be described as explosively bullish for the markets. Ben Bernanke Rightly said that this had nothing to do with politics and the Fed can't do it alone! The ...
The Energy Report - Will they are Won't they?
September 13 2012 8:50 AM
The bar has been raised and now it is up to the Federal Reserve to meet or exceed expectations. You see because many in the market place feel that some form of quantitative easing may be in the market to give the Fed's soon to be announced stimulus plan its best chance to work they are going to have to wow us!!!
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
September 12 2012 10:07 AM
Dec. Bonds are currently1'02 lower at 147'22 and the 10 Yr. Note 11 lower at 132'14. Germany is likely to allow participation in the ECB proposed Bond buying program of up to 3 year maturities issued by troubled members such as Spain, Italy and Greece to prevent rates from those nations rising too dramatically. This has removed some of the "flight to safety premium" that has kept U.S. Bonds at record low yields. The next item to watch for will be the FOMC announcement tomorrow and...
The Energy Report - Ok Now It Is the Feds Turn
September 12 2012 9:34 AM
Commodity bulls get the bounce they need as Germany's Federal Constitutional Court Courts ok's The ECB bond buying program with limitations. The court says that that Germany can contribute to the European Stability Mechanism but only up to a contribution of 190 billion euros, or about 240 billion dollars. Of course when it comes to limitations in Europe we already know that things like that are always subject to change. Now the ruling is still requires parliamentary approval of any incre...
Alpari Grain Report 9/11
September 11 2012 7:08 PM
The week's weather looks to further talk of the drought ending. WXRISK.com the weather site has the Western grain belt Wednesday through Thursday with 60% coverage up to 1 inch of rain in Iowa, Nebraska, and all of Kansas. Thursday and Friday the Eastern grain belt of Illinois, Indiana and Missouri see 50% coverage of .50 to 1.00 inch. Our hard red winter wheat states have rain all three days. 65 to 70% coverage of 1 to 2 inches in Kansas, Colorado, Oklahoma and Texas. The coverage in the whe...
The Energy Report - What Does Chicago and China Have in Common?
September 11 2012 8:40 AM
Gas prices still are not really coming down in Chicago or in China. Already the city with the highest gas prices in the nation Chicago gas prices and some of the highest paid public school teachers. Oh never mind they are on strike. Well gas prices are going up on yet another pipeline problem this time the Magellan. That comes as word that refiners in the Gulf Coast are still battling the aftermath of Hurricane Isaac. Gas will continue to be strong and will be the strong part of the sector.
China's Next Act
September 10 2012 6:43 PM
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
Brent Crude Continues to Consolidate with Bullish Stance
September 10 2012 5:32 PM
Brent Crude oil prices have been ranging since mid August after trading above the 111.00 handle. It has recently established a range roughly between the 111.00-111.50 support area, and the 116.35-116.60 resistance area as shown in the 4H chart. This consolidation can be said to be keeping a bullish stance in this time-frame because:
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
September 10 2012 9:51 AM
Dec. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 148'31 and the Dec. 10 Yr. Note about unchanged at 133'00. Wed. and Thurs. the FOMC will have a two meeting and the market is currently divided as to whether there will be an announcement of another round of Quantitative Easing. According to polls that I have recently read, 60% of economists surveyed thought that the Fed will do another round of "Easing". Personally, I think at current levels another round of easing will have little effect. That b...
The Energy Report - The Lethargic Universe
September 10 2012 9:05 AM
The whole world is slowing down. Bad data out of Europe and China in the aftermath of a terrible jobs report in the United States has the market living and dying on simulative hopes. With rising gasoline prices and other issues the Fed is going to be the carrier of the world's economic burden this week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and the world once again will be watching.
Alpari Grain Report
September 08 2012 6:41 AM
Next Wednesday is the USDA monthly crop report that looks to make adjustments on yields and production, up or down. Prior to its release, traders will place their own trades based on their personal perceptions. Here's a recent Bloomberg news poll of major brokerage houses and analysts as to their estimates. For corn, the average production estimate is 10.420 billion bushels, 350 million bushels under the last USDA report estimates and well under the 2011 production of 12.358.
The Energy Report - A Slippery Slide
September 07 2012 7:42 AM
Oil Prices resisted resistance despite the fact that US crude oil inventories fell a whopping 7.4 million barrels plunging 22 million barrels in just the last seven weeks. It seems that despite the fact that stock markets around the globe were celebrating Mario Draghi's sterilized bond buying program oil succumbed to rumors and innuendo.
The Energy Report - Sanitize this!
September 06 2012 7:39 AM
Silver is soaring once again helping to support oil as the market is giddy about the prospects of Mario Draghi' s sanitized bond buying! Or perhaps should we call it central bank money laundering. You see it isn't really money printing as long as you remove one Euro from the money supply for every bond that you buy. Seeing that the plan is to allow the ECB to by unlimited treasuries on the short end of the yield curve three years or less in unlimited quantities that should make Euro's s...
The Energy Report - QE Blues
September 05 2012 12:10 PM
Quantitative easing hopes may be driving silver and gold higher but suddenly seems lost on the oil complex. While QE fever swept some parts of the commodity complex oil decompressed as it seems that the geo-political risk was unchanged. The fact that some refineries and off shore production is coming back on line and concerns about a weakening manufacturing sector helped reverse oil's fortunes yesterday.
The Energy Report - No Real Relief in Sight
September 04 2012 9:44 AM
After Americans endured the highest gas price ever posted over a Labor Day holiday weekend and commodities outperformed stocks for the second month in a row, the sad part is, there seems to be too little gasoline relief in sight. Even with the winter blend switchover price bonus, already we are seeing that RBOB futures are continuing to move higher. From around the country reports of pain are coming in. Take Maine for example where according to reports from the AP, Maine residents are paying mor...
Grain Report - Review August 31, 2012
August 31 2012 5:16 PM
First things first, markets are closed Monday for celebration of our Labor Day holiday. On the demand side our weekly export sales report came out Thursday at 7:30 AM central time, telling us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment. Wheat sales were 508,000 metric tons up 8% from the week prior and 1% over a neutral four week average. Buyers were drought stricken Mexico with Taiwan and South Korea probably in buying feed quality wheat. We need 700,000 metric tons or more weekly to be...
The Energy Report
August 31 2012 9:40 AM
Ben Bernanke Jackson Hole speech may overshadow news coming from the aftermath Hurricane Isaac yet it is in Russia's it is America's new shale gas revolution that is shaking things up.
The Energy Report - Not Much Shelter from the Storm
August 30 2012 9:06 AM
If short sided oil traders though that they would be basking in sunny big time profits after the storm I would have to say at this point they have to be a bit disappointed. Even after a sell off on bearish Energy Information Administration supply report oil could only hover about a dollar lower. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 364.5 million barrels, U.S. ...
A Transparent Poker Face
August 29 2012 9:02 AM
The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have both telegraphed that another round of currency depreciation is in the offing. The ECB's Mario Draghi has pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the Euro currency by setting specific targets for Italian and Spanish bond yields. And the Bernanke Fed has stated that addition monetary stimulation is warranted soon unless there is a "substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery." Fed Presidents...