Commentary

The Energy Report - A Slippery Slide
September 07 2012 7:42 AM

Oil Prices resisted resistance despite the fact that US crude oil inventories fell a whopping 7.4 million barrels plunging 22 million barrels in just the last seven weeks. It seems that despite the fact that stock markets around the globe were celebrating Mario Draghi's sterilized bond buying program oil succumbed to rumors and innuendo.
The Energy Report - Sanitize this!
September 06 2012 7:39 AM

Silver is soaring once again helping to support oil as the market is giddy about the prospects of Mario Draghi' s sanitized bond buying! Or perhaps should we call it central bank money laundering. You see it isn't really money printing as long as you remove one Euro from the money supply for every bond that you buy. Seeing that the plan is to allow the ECB to by unlimited treasuries on the short end of the yield curve three years or less in unlimited quantities that should make Euro's s...
The Energy Report - QE Blues
September 05 2012 12:10 PM

Quantitative easing hopes may be driving silver and gold higher but suddenly seems lost on the oil complex. While QE fever swept some parts of the commodity complex oil decompressed as it seems that the geo-political risk was unchanged. The fact that some refineries and off shore production is coming back on line and concerns about a weakening manufacturing sector helped reverse oil's fortunes yesterday.
The Energy Report - No Real Relief in Sight
September 04 2012 9:44 AM

After Americans endured the highest gas price ever posted over a Labor Day holiday weekend and commodities outperformed stocks for the second month in a row, the sad part is, there seems to be too little gasoline relief in sight. Even with the winter blend switchover price bonus, already we are seeing that RBOB futures are continuing to move higher. From around the country reports of pain are coming in. Take Maine for example where according to reports from the AP, Maine residents are paying mor...
Grain Report - Review August 31, 2012
August 31 2012 5:16 PM

First things first, markets are closed Monday for celebration of our Labor Day holiday. On the demand side our weekly export sales report came out Thursday at 7:30 AM central time, telling us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment. Wheat sales were 508,000 metric tons up 8% from the week prior and 1% over a neutral four week average. Buyers were drought stricken Mexico with Taiwan and South Korea probably in buying feed quality wheat. We need 700,000 metric tons or more weekly to be...
The Energy Report
August 31 2012 9:40 AM

Ben Bernanke Jackson Hole speech may overshadow news coming from the aftermath Hurricane Isaac yet it is in Russia's it is America's new shale gas revolution that is shaking things up.
The Energy Report - Not Much Shelter from the Storm
August 30 2012 9:06 AM

If short sided oil traders though that they would be basking in sunny big time profits after the storm I would have to say at this point they have to be a bit disappointed. Even after a sell off on bearish Energy Information Administration supply report oil could only hover about a dollar lower. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 364.5 million barrels, U.S. ...
A Transparent Poker Face
August 29 2012 9:02 AM

The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have both telegraphed that another round of currency depreciation is in the offing. The ECB's Mario Draghi has pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the Euro currency by setting specific targets for Italian and Spanish bond yields. And the Bernanke Fed has stated that addition monetary stimulation is warranted soon unless there is a "substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery." Fed Presidents...
The Energy Report - Flood Warning
August 29 2012 8:54 AM

Hurricane Isaac makes a second landfall at Port Fourchon, LA.; it is becoming clearer that the threat at from this slow moving storm may not come from the winds but the possible flooding. While oil prices have fallen on the expectation that demand for oil will be impacted by this storm in the aftermath of the storm the demand for higher quality crude could drive WTI higher when the damage becomes clearer. With flood defenses already being breeched in southeast Louisiana the impact of this storm ...
Grain Report - Review August 28, 2012
August 28 2012 4:41 PM

Monday's crop condition report came out about as expected with a 1% change either way. Because the growing season is over were no longer seeing those 4 or 6% changes on the week in the good to excellent category driving prices. This leaves the USDA making only a small 1 or 2% adjustments, not enough to move the market or have traders making any mental adjustments to production prospects.
The Energy Report - Slow Motion Train Wreck
August 28 2012 10:50 AM

Not quite a Hurricane Isaac move slowly towards US energy Infrastructure towards the Big Easy as traders remain surprisingly calm. Despite the fact that 78% of all Gulf Oil production was shut down oil closed lower. The marker sold off on word of refinery closures and rumors that there would be a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves. As the US is less dependent on Gulf oil and gas production I guess traders can afford to calm.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
August 28 2012 10:48 AM

Dec. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 150'02 carrying a 28 tick premium to the Sept. contract. The Dec. contract will be considered lead month as of Friday Aug. 31st. Over the last 10 days we have been trading the Sept. contract from the long side on sharp breaks and taking profits above the 147'28 level as the market rallied on hopes of another round of stimulus. We are currently on the sidelines. At current levels I am changing my bias to the sell side of the market on rallies above the ...
Oil Prices Tumbled; a Technical Look at Brent Crude
August 27 2012 4:16 PM

The previous update on Brent crude noted a bullish market that was coming up against a pivot at 116.33. "The 116.33 level is also a previous support pivot from 2/10 and 4/18. To the left of the daily chart, this was also a resistance pivot on 11/8/2011, which was the high for a half-year consolidation period between August 2011, and February 2012."
The Energy Report - Isaac has Oil Production Twisting in the Wind
August 27 2012 7:58 AM

Winds and rain and Isaac have taken a nasty turn right into the heart of Gulf Oil Production. States of emergency and evacuation orders are in place along the Gulf oil and refining areas. Prices started to soar shortly after Weather Analyst Dave Tolleris of WXRISK told me that Isaac may miss Florida completely and turn into a Category 2 Hurricane and head directly into refineries and production near Alabama and Louisiana. Dave said that we are rapidly approaching that point of landfall with Isa...
Alpari Grain Report Update
August 24 2012 10:18 PM

Thursdays weekly export sales report came out with mixed reviews. Note, with weather and its impact on yields all but over demand side fundamentals take its place as a pricing forced to futures. Wheat export sales last week were 468,000 metric tons, up 19% from the week prior but under this 750,000 metric tons or more needed weekly to be bullish. Big players on the world market were absent, instead a long list of small buyers, who last year were buying low-quality wheat, not suitable for human c...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
August 23 2012 10:12 AM

Sept. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 147'30 and the 10 Yr. Notes 7 highr at 133'17. This morning's Weekly Jobless Claims report showed an increase in claims of 4,000 vs. expectations of a drop of 3,000. Yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes showed continued concern over the unemployment rate, expectations of continued low inflation and economic growth and continued extention of low interest rates beyond 2014. "Many" of the participants voiced a willingness for another round...
The Energy Report - Let The Printing Begin!
August 23 2012 10:10 AM

As I wrote yesterday Commodities are going crazy and so is the Federal Reserve adding that final bullish element to an already bullish market place. The Fed Minutes gave credence to what that charts were already signaling and that was that QE 3d may be right around the corner.
The Energy Report - Commodity Crazy!
August 22 2012 8:24 AM

The commodity markets are bullish again. Let me count the ways. Many of the old time commodity markets are breaking out and for a host of different reasons. Platinum continues to soar in the aftermath of mine violence in South Africa. Now add to that concerns that production cut backs at other mines are creating breakout in the metals. BHP Billiton after seeing profits cut by over 35% it putting off or canceling 50 billion worth of expansion projects. Other big producers may follow
GRAIN UP DATE FOR TUESDAY 8-21-12
August 21 2012 5:08 PM

Mondays crop condition report showed 23% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged for the third consecutive week. Well under a year ago of 57% and the lowest rating of the year. The story here is the crop is done growing. Also, if we don't have a weekly up or down trend for the month to use when calculating what the September USDA monthly crop report on poduction may say, we will have to go by early harvest results. The worst of the crop will be harvested first as the growers ...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
August 21 2012 10:15 AM

Dec. Corn is currently 5 cents higher at 829'0, Nov. Beans 29 cents higher at 1713'0 and Dec. Wheat 5 cents higher at 908'0. Beans are on new high ground due to good export demand. Yesterday afternoon's crop progress report shower 23% of the Corn crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last year. 51% of the crop is poor to very poor, unchanged from a week ago. 17% of the crop is mature vs. a 5 year average of 4% indicating an early harvest as this reflects the early plant...

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