- China's Next Act
September 10 2012 6:43 PM
After Mario Draghi announced the European Central Bank's new bond buying program, I was the first guest on CNBC Asia's Squawk Box to weigh in on this decision. I reiterated my stance that the endgame for Europe would be to print money, which will eventually lead to currency wars. These actions are positive for gold and also for increased economic activity.
- Brent Crude Continues to Consolidate with Bullish Stance
September 10 2012 5:32 PM
Brent Crude oil prices have been ranging since mid August after trading above the 111.00 handle. It has recently established a range roughly between the 111.00-111.50 support area, and the 116.35-116.60 resistance area as shown in the 4H chart. This consolidation can be said to be keeping a bullish stance in this time-frame because:
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
September 10 2012 9:51 AM
Dec. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 148'31 and the Dec. 10 Yr. Note about unchanged at 133'00. Wed. and Thurs. the FOMC will have a two meeting and the market is currently divided as to whether there will be an announcement of another round of Quantitative Easing. According to polls that I have recently read, 60% of economists surveyed thought that the Fed will do another round of "Easing". Personally, I think at current levels another round of easing will have little effect. That b...
- The Energy Report - The Lethargic Universe
September 10 2012 9:05 AM
The whole world is slowing down. Bad data out of Europe and China in the aftermath of a terrible jobs report in the United States has the market living and dying on simulative hopes. With rising gasoline prices and other issues the Fed is going to be the carrier of the world's economic burden this week the Federal Open Market Committee meets and the world once again will be watching.
- Alpari Grain Report
September 08 2012 6:41 AM
Next Wednesday is the USDA monthly crop report that looks to make adjustments on yields and production, up or down. Prior to its release, traders will place their own trades based on their personal perceptions. Here's a recent Bloomberg news poll of major brokerage houses and analysts as to their estimates. For corn, the average production estimate is 10.420 billion bushels, 350 million bushels under the last USDA report estimates and well under the 2011 production of 12.358.
- The Energy Report - A Slippery Slide
September 07 2012 7:42 AM
Oil Prices resisted resistance despite the fact that US crude oil inventories fell a whopping 7.4 million barrels plunging 22 million barrels in just the last seven weeks. It seems that despite the fact that stock markets around the globe were celebrating Mario Draghi's sterilized bond buying program oil succumbed to rumors and innuendo.
- The Energy Report - Sanitize this!
September 06 2012 7:39 AM
Silver is soaring once again helping to support oil as the market is giddy about the prospects of Mario Draghi' s sanitized bond buying! Or perhaps should we call it central bank money laundering. You see it isn't really money printing as long as you remove one Euro from the money supply for every bond that you buy. Seeing that the plan is to allow the ECB to by unlimited treasuries on the short end of the yield curve three years or less in unlimited quantities that should make Euro's s...
- The Energy Report - QE Blues
September 05 2012 12:10 PM
Quantitative easing hopes may be driving silver and gold higher but suddenly seems lost on the oil complex. While QE fever swept some parts of the commodity complex oil decompressed as it seems that the geo-political risk was unchanged. The fact that some refineries and off shore production is coming back on line and concerns about a weakening manufacturing sector helped reverse oil's fortunes yesterday.
- The Energy Report - No Real Relief in Sight
September 04 2012 9:44 AM
After Americans endured the highest gas price ever posted over a Labor Day holiday weekend and commodities outperformed stocks for the second month in a row, the sad part is, there seems to be too little gasoline relief in sight. Even with the winter blend switchover price bonus, already we are seeing that RBOB futures are continuing to move higher. From around the country reports of pain are coming in. Take Maine for example where according to reports from the AP, Maine residents are paying mor...
- Grain Report - Review August 31, 2012
August 31 2012 5:16 PM
First things first, markets are closed Monday for celebration of our Labor Day holiday. On the demand side our weekly export sales report came out Thursday at 7:30 AM central time, telling us how much of each grain was sold for future shipment. Wheat sales were 508,000 metric tons up 8% from the week prior and 1% over a neutral four week average. Buyers were drought stricken Mexico with Taiwan and South Korea probably in buying feed quality wheat. We need 700,000 metric tons or more weekly to be...
- The Energy Report
August 31 2012 9:40 AM
Ben Bernanke Jackson Hole speech may overshadow news coming from the aftermath Hurricane Isaac yet it is in Russia's it is America's new shale gas revolution that is shaking things up.
- The Energy Report - Not Much Shelter from the Storm
August 30 2012 9:06 AM
If short sided oil traders though that they would be basking in sunny big time profits after the storm I would have to say at this point they have to be a bit disappointed. Even after a sell off on bearish Energy Information Administration supply report oil could only hover about a dollar lower. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 364.5 million barrels, U.S. ...
- A Transparent Poker Face
August 29 2012 9:02 AM
The European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have both telegraphed that another round of currency depreciation is in the offing. The ECB's Mario Draghi has pledged to do "whatever it takes" to save the Euro currency by setting specific targets for Italian and Spanish bond yields. And the Bernanke Fed has stated that addition monetary stimulation is warranted soon unless there is a "substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery." Fed Presidents...
- The Energy Report - Flood Warning
August 29 2012 8:54 AM
Hurricane Isaac makes a second landfall at Port Fourchon, LA.; it is becoming clearer that the threat at from this slow moving storm may not come from the winds but the possible flooding. While oil prices have fallen on the expectation that demand for oil will be impacted by this storm in the aftermath of the storm the demand for higher quality crude could drive WTI higher when the damage becomes clearer. With flood defenses already being breeched in southeast Louisiana the impact of this storm ...
- Grain Report - Review August 28, 2012
August 28 2012 4:41 PM
Monday's crop condition report came out about as expected with a 1% change either way. Because the growing season is over were no longer seeing those 4 or 6% changes on the week in the good to excellent category driving prices. This leaves the USDA making only a small 1 or 2% adjustments, not enough to move the market or have traders making any mental adjustments to production prospects.
- The Energy Report - Slow Motion Train Wreck
August 28 2012 10:50 AM
Not quite a Hurricane Isaac move slowly towards US energy Infrastructure towards the Big Easy as traders remain surprisingly calm. Despite the fact that 78% of all Gulf Oil production was shut down oil closed lower. The marker sold off on word of refinery closures and rumors that there would be a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves. As the US is less dependent on Gulf oil and gas production I guess traders can afford to calm.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
August 28 2012 10:48 AM
Dec. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 150'02 carrying a 28 tick premium to the Sept. contract. The Dec. contract will be considered lead month as of Friday Aug. 31st. Over the last 10 days we have been trading the Sept. contract from the long side on sharp breaks and taking profits above the 147'28 level as the market rallied on hopes of another round of stimulus. We are currently on the sidelines. At current levels I am changing my bias to the sell side of the market on rallies above the ...
- Oil Prices Tumbled; a Technical Look at Brent Crude
August 27 2012 4:16 PM
The previous update on Brent crude noted a bullish market that was coming up against a pivot at 116.33. "The 116.33 level is also a previous support pivot from 2/10 and 4/18. To the left of the daily chart, this was also a resistance pivot on 11/8/2011, which was the high for a half-year consolidation period between August 2011, and February 2012."
- The Energy Report - Isaac has Oil Production Twisting in the Wind
August 27 2012 7:58 AM
Winds and rain and Isaac have taken a nasty turn right into the heart of Gulf Oil Production. States of emergency and evacuation orders are in place along the Gulf oil and refining areas. Prices started to soar shortly after Weather Analyst Dave Tolleris of WXRISK told me that Isaac may miss Florida completely and turn into a Category 2 Hurricane and head directly into refineries and production near Alabama and Louisiana. Dave said that we are rapidly approaching that point of landfall with Isa...
- Alpari Grain Report Update
August 24 2012 10:18 PM
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out with mixed reviews. Note, with weather and its impact on yields all but over demand side fundamentals take its place as a pricing forced to futures. Wheat export sales last week were 468,000 metric tons, up 19% from the week prior but under this 750,000 metric tons or more needed weekly to be bullish. Big players on the world market were absent, instead a long list of small buyers, who last year were buying low-quality wheat, not suitable for human c...