Commentary

  • The Energy Report - Flood Warning

    August 29 2012 8:54 AM

    Hurricane Isaac makes a second landfall at Port Fourchon, LA.; it is becoming clearer that the threat at from this slow moving storm may not come from the winds but the possible flooding. While oil prices have fallen on the expectation that demand for oil will be impacted by this storm in the aftermath of the storm the demand for higher quality crude could drive WTI higher when the damage becomes clearer. With flood defenses already being breeched in southeast Louisiana the impact of this storm ...

  • Grain Report - Review August 28, 2012

    August 28 2012 4:41 PM

    Monday's crop condition report came out about as expected with a 1% change either way. Because the growing season is over were no longer seeing those 4 or 6% changes on the week in the good to excellent category driving prices. This leaves the USDA making only a small 1 or 2% adjustments, not enough to move the market or have traders making any mental adjustments to production prospects.

  • The Energy Report - Slow Motion Train Wreck

    August 28 2012 10:50 AM

    Not quite a Hurricane Isaac move slowly towards US energy Infrastructure towards the Big Easy as traders remain surprisingly calm. Despite the fact that 78% of all Gulf Oil production was shut down oil closed lower. The marker sold off on word of refinery closures and rumors that there would be a release from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves. As the US is less dependent on Gulf oil and gas production I guess traders can afford to calm.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    August 28 2012 10:48 AM

    Dec. Bonds are currently 10 higher at 150'02 carrying a 28 tick premium to the Sept. contract. The Dec. contract will be considered lead month as of Friday Aug. 31st. Over the last 10 days we have been trading the Sept. contract from the long side on sharp breaks and taking profits above the 147'28 level as the market rallied on hopes of another round of stimulus. We are currently on the sidelines. At current levels I am changing my bias to the sell side of the market on rallies above the ...

  • Oil Prices Tumbled; a Technical Look at Brent Crude

    August 27 2012 4:16 PM

    The previous update on Brent crude noted a bullish market that was coming up against a pivot at 116.33. "The 116.33 level is also a previous support pivot from 2/10 and 4/18. To the left of the daily chart, this was also a resistance pivot on 11/8/2011, which was the high for a half-year consolidation period between August 2011, and February 2012."

  • The Energy Report - Isaac has Oil Production Twisting in the Wind

    August 27 2012 7:58 AM

    Winds and rain and Isaac have taken a nasty turn right into the heart of Gulf Oil Production. States of emergency and evacuation orders are in place along the Gulf oil and refining areas. Prices started to soar shortly after Weather Analyst Dave Tolleris of WXRISK told me that Isaac may miss Florida completely and turn into a Category 2 Hurricane and head directly into refineries and production near Alabama and Louisiana. Dave said that we are rapidly approaching that point of landfall with Isa...

  • Alpari Grain Report Update

    August 24 2012 10:18 PM

    Thursdays weekly export sales report came out with mixed reviews. Note, with weather and its impact on yields all but over demand side fundamentals take its place as a pricing forced to futures. Wheat export sales last week were 468,000 metric tons, up 19% from the week prior but under this 750,000 metric tons or more needed weekly to be bullish. Big players on the world market were absent, instead a long list of small buyers, who last year were buying low-quality wheat, not suitable for human c...

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher

    August 23 2012 10:12 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 147'30 and the 10 Yr. Notes 7 highr at 133'17. This morning's Weekly Jobless Claims report showed an increase in claims of 4,000 vs. expectations of a drop of 3,000. Yesterday's release of the FOMC minutes showed continued concern over the unemployment rate, expectations of continued low inflation and economic growth and continued extention of low interest rates beyond 2014. "Many" of the participants voiced a willingness for another round...

  • The Energy Report - Let The Printing Begin!

    August 23 2012 10:10 AM

    As I wrote yesterday Commodities are going crazy and so is the Federal Reserve adding that final bullish element to an already bullish market place. The Fed Minutes gave credence to what that charts were already signaling and that was that QE 3d may be right around the corner.

  • The Energy Report - Commodity Crazy!

    August 22 2012 8:24 AM

    The commodity markets are bullish again. Let me count the ways. Many of the old time commodity markets are breaking out and for a host of different reasons. Platinum continues to soar in the aftermath of mine violence in South Africa. Now add to that concerns that production cut backs at other mines are creating breakout in the metals. BHP Billiton after seeing profits cut by over 35% it putting off or canceling 50 billion worth of expansion projects. Other big producers may follow

  • GRAIN UP DATE FOR TUESDAY 8-21-12

    August 21 2012 5:08 PM

    Mondays crop condition report showed 23% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, unchanged for the third consecutive week. Well under a year ago of 57% and the lowest rating of the year. The story here is the crop is done growing. Also, if we don't have a weekly up or down trend for the month to use when calculating what the September USDA monthly crop report on poduction may say, we will have to go by early harvest results. The worst of the crop will be harvested first as the growers ...

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    August 21 2012 10:15 AM

    Dec. Corn is currently 5 cents higher at 829'0, Nov. Beans 29 cents higher at 1713'0 and Dec. Wheat 5 cents higher at 908'0. Beans are on new high ground due to good export demand. Yesterday afternoon's crop progress report shower 23% of the Corn crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged from last year. 51% of the crop is poor to very poor, unchanged from a week ago. 17% of the crop is mature vs. a 5 year average of 4% indicating an early harvest as this reflects the early plant...

  • The Energy Report - Number Nine Number Nine

    August 21 2012 9:07 AM

    Oil also is getting support from more talk of war. The Times of Israel reports that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu "is determined to attack Iran before the US elections," Israel's Channel 10 News claimed on Monday night, and Israel is now "closer than ever" to a strike designed to thwart Iran's nuclear drive. In Syria President Obama drew a line in the sand and warned that if there is any evidence that Syria's chemicals or biological weapons are being moved or...

  • The Energy Report - High Five

    August 20 2012 7:41 AM

    Oil prices are going to try to make it five days in a row of higer prices as the market seems to be getting support from the rising US stock market and hopes that the ECB will begin a bond buying program to help out beleaguered Euro zone rate challenged countries. As the world gets geared up for more stimulus and word that Saudi oil production is rising seems to suggest either that demand is getting better or the Saudi's are trying to make sure the market is well supplied ahead of any impend...

  • Demand

    August 17 2012 2:19 PM

    Thursdays weekly export sales report shed some light on pre harvest demand. Wheat export sales last week for future shipment were 396 T.M.T. down 40% from the week prior and 26% under our four week average. Though ending stocks are shrinking they are still more than ample. These were disappointing export sales but eyes are shifting towards the new crop year and weather. The U.S. starts planting of its winter wheat crop in September.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    August 16 2012 10:12 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 2 higher at 146'06 and the 10 Yr. Notes unchanged at 132'18.5. Yields have risen to 2.86% on the 30 Yr. Bond and 1.80% on the 10 yr. Note from 2.5% and 1.4% respectively. Over night Bonds made a new recent low of 145'12 slightly more than 2'00 below Tuesday's stated support of 147'20. Being long the Bonds in my opinion had become an over crowded trade with many participants on the long side of the market, there because of safety and quality issues. Lik...

  • The Energy Report - Ok, that is more like it

    August 16 2012 9:00 AM

    I have to admit I was a little stunned by the American Petroleum Institute weekly supply report which showed increases in both oil and gasoline supply. Yet after the Energy Information Administration it seemed that the energy world somehow made sense. With all of the issues challenging energy production, imports and production not to mention seasonal patterns the weekly net changes make a lot more sense. Still there were some surprises.

  • The Energy Report - Inventory Bingo!

    August 15 2012 9:39 AM

    Of all the weeks that one might expect to see a draw in crude oil you saw a build. I mean come on after shocking drawdown in supply the previous two week's without much rhyme or reason one might thought that this week would be the week that you would have seen a drawdown. I mean you had bad storms in the Atlantic and Hurricane Ernesto. You had pipeline leaks and refinery fires.

  • Alpari Grain Report

    August 14 2012 1:48 PM

    Fridays USDA monthly crop report came out in line with pre-report trade estimates. There was no shocking surprise to push prices up the daily trading limits. This left grains either up or down marginally on the day after opening price high volatility was over. December corn settled down 13 while November beans were up 11 cents.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    August 14 2012 9:56 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 31 lower at 147'27 and the 10 Yr. Notes 9 lower at 133'11. This morning: Retail sales were up a better than expected 0.8% and PPI was up 0.3%. Euro-zone GDP was slightly better than expected at -0.2% showing improvement in Germany, France and the Netherlands and negative growth in other countries. Near term support remains in the 147'20 level but resistance has been lowered to 149'28. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance.