Alpari Grain Report
August 14 2012 1:48 PM
Fridays USDA monthly crop report came out in line with pre-report trade estimates. There was no shocking surprise to push prices up the daily trading limits. This left grains either up or down marginally on the day after opening price high volatility was over. December corn settled down 13 while November beans were up 11 cents.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
August 14 2012 9:56 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 31 lower at 147'27 and the 10 Yr. Notes 9 lower at 133'11. This morning: Retail sales were up a better than expected 0.8% and PPI was up 0.3%. Euro-zone GDP was slightly better than expected at -0.2% showing improvement in Germany, France and the Netherlands and negative growth in other countries. Near term support remains in the 147'20 level but resistance has been lowered to 149'28. Treat as a trading market between support and resistance.
The Energy Report - All's Quiet on the Oil Rally
August 14 2012 9:20 AM
Another choppy light volume day and if you were not paying close attention you might not realize that oil is going higher. In fact, led by the Brent Crude on concerns surrounding North Sea production and of course those pesky geo-political worries oil is rising step by step an inch. North Sea blend production is near record lows due to maintenance. Weak Eurozone growth but in line with expectations and Chinese data are also keeping hopes and oil high in the belief that China or some other nati...
The Energy Report - Early Warning
August 13 2012 10:03 AM
Oil Prices are rising early on fears of increasing geopolitical risk and the hope of more stimuli. According to Dow Jones crude-oil futures rallied after an Israeli newspaper reported that the country is testing a nationwide text messaging system for warning people of an imminent missile attack, potentially heightening tensions with Iran. At the same time a larger than expected drop in Japan's GDP is increasing the odds that global economic stimulus is right around the corner. Japan's G...
The Energy Report - China Delusion
August 10 2012 5:16 PM
The steep slowdown in Chins has investors wondering ... Now What? China's slowdown now looks more and more like a crash landing raising fears that the worlds growth engine is getting bogged down by Europe and its own internal economic problems. Soaring domestic wages and real estate makes China's trade data even more disturbing.
The Energy Report - A World of Woes and Oil Goes!
August 07 2012 8:17 AM
If it isn't one thing driving oil higher than it is another. Oil Prices are getting support from weather woes, refinery fires, pipeline sabotage and weak global economic situation that are raising hopes of more global economic stimulus. We start with bad news is good news. German manufacturing orders fell in June and reports that Mario Monti gave an ultimatum to Angela Markel is getting the market geared up on the belief that the European Union is getting ready to embark in a massive bond buy...
The Race for Resources
August 07 2012 12:29 AM
The world watched in awe as American swimmer Michael Phelps became the most decorated Olympian of all time. I've read he's been training in the pool for an average of 6 hours a day, 6 days per week, which equates to about 30,000 hours since age 13 and about 10,000 calories burned during a training day. It's inspiring to see the incredible results of his tremendous sacrifice and commitment.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds higher, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
August 06 2012 10:29 AM
Dec. Corn is currently 9'4 lower at 798'0, Nov. Beans 41'0 lower at 1588'0 and Dec. Wheat 6'6 lower at 897'0. Cooling temperatures and some spotty percipitation is pressuring Corn this morning. The prevailing trend remains up, however, the market has developed resistance in the 815'0 area. Support remains in the 784'0 area and I will once again try the long side on a break to support with an initial protective sell stop at 772'0. Possible top in Nov. Beans.
The Energy Report - Nightmare at the Gas Pump
August 06 2012 8:32 AM
It was weekend of horror for drivers in the Midwest if they dare pulled up to the gas pump. A series of events conspired to create a historic gas price spike and ultimately a gas shock pop. The Enbridge pipeline delay was the icing on the cake as the market was suffering from a string of refining issues. It seems the Federal Government is not allowing Enbridge to restart until Enbridge submits a detailed restart plan and undergo a third-party audit. That in the aftermath of an announcement from...
The Energy Report - Draghi Drag
August 03 2012 8:27 AM
I guess we could have been more disappointed. Oh sure in the after math of the ECB rate decision and the lack of definitive action From Mario Draghi one might think that the market would get crushed. While the market did sell of it really wasn't as bad as one might think especially after Mr. Draghi raised expectations so high. It seems that despite the disappointment the markets wanted to believe that despite the fact that Draghi did not offer any instant gratification his rhetoric seemed ver...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
August 02 2012 10:29 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 1'08 higher at 151'18 and the 10 Yr. Notes up 19 at 134'24. Quite a story this morning as to market volatility. Jobless claims were up 8,000 vs. expectations of up 13,000. The initial reaction was to the downside as the Bonds broke from the 150'00 level to 149'16. Keep in mind that the Bonds were already trading a bit lower in response to the ECB and the Bank of England keeping rates unchanged. The market then awaited comments by the ECB's Mario Draghi...
The Energy Report - Here we go again!
August 02 2012 8:03 AM
The Fed gave oil a little ride after deciding to send a sign to the market that while they are not quite ready to act just yet they are waiting in the wings. The Oil sold off as soon as traders read that the Fed said that economic activity has decelerated raising hopes that perhaps the Fed is getting ready to act even though they held their fire. Or maybe just maybe they believe that Mr. Magic Mario Draghi the man who said that he would do whatever it takes to provide the type of surprise that ...
The Energy Report - Dampening Down Expectations
August 01 2012 8:56 AM
To print or not to print that is the question. The markets yesterday seemed to suggest that perhaps the world isn't getting ready to go on a massive money printing party after all. European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi who vowed that he would do whatever it takes to save the Euro might not mean that much without the support of Germany. Besides with better than expected data in the US and in the aftermath of the Fed's extension of Operation Twist the Odds that the Fed will wait before th...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 31 2012 11:07 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 14 higher at 151'14 and the 10 Yr. Note 7.5 higher at 134'24.5. Since my last "Report",Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. The market has taken this to mean the possibility of "Quantitative Easing". It was also rumored that their will be talks with the Germans about buying government Bonds in an effort to push rates lower. All of this was viewed as positive actions for European soveriegn debt a...
The Energy Report - We Are Going to Pump You UP!
July 31 2012 8:03 AM
The global markets are getting ready to get pumped up on hopes of massive stimulation across many continents. Reuters News reported that the official Chinese Newspaper Xinhua quoted Chinese President Hu Jintao as saying that China would increase fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year.
Challenging the Paradigms of Investing
July 30 2012 4:33 PM
It was an exciting and educational week. I was in Vancouver at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaking to hundreds of investors who are eager to learn how to grow and protect their wealth. This year's theme, "Innovate or Die," fit well with my presentation, as the conference challenged attendees to adapt their investment strategies just as empires and enterprises adjust to changing circumstances.
Will the Market's Direction Determine the Presidency?
July 28 2012 2:01 AM
After the first few months of President Barack Obama's term in office, I wrote about the carnival rollercoaster the market was riding. Looking at the blue line below, that post may have foreshadowed his tenure! The average of four-year presidential cycles from 1953 through 2008 shows that the S&P 500 Index generally remains flat for almost the first two years, before heading higher in the second half.
The Energy Report - The Draghi Drag
July 27 2012 3:01 PM
Mr. Mario Draghi head of the European Central Bank drug the oil market out of its renewed bearish malaise with a promise to do whatever it takes to save the Euro. Of Course saying that and doing it are two different things. Oil that was just shaking off its Iranian war fears now is rallying on dreams of a massive global economic sugar high. Yet with Spain's unemployment surging to decade's highs the market is becoming mort skeptical that Mario Draghi has what it takes to do 'whatever it...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 26 2012 12:06 PM
Sept. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 152'06 and Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 134'29.5. Weekly Jobless Claims were down by 35,000 vs. expectations of down 12K. Durable Goods were up 1.6% vs. expectations of up only 0.6%. Also Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. All of this has pushed the Bonds slightly lower from recent highs just above the 153'00 level, not very impressive. The market now looks to next week's FOMC meeting ...
The Energy Report - Stimulating Talk
July 26 2012 11:37 AM
Forget about that so called bearish Energy Information Administration inventory report oil rebounded big time on stimulating talk. No I am not talking about the stimulating talk that you get each day on the Fox Business Network but talk that the Fed is getting ready to act on our floundering economy.