- The Energy Report - Nightmare at the Gas Pump
August 06 2012 8:32 AM
It was weekend of horror for drivers in the Midwest if they dare pulled up to the gas pump. A series of events conspired to create a historic gas price spike and ultimately a gas shock pop. The Enbridge pipeline delay was the icing on the cake as the market was suffering from a string of refining issues. It seems the Federal Government is not allowing Enbridge to restart until Enbridge submits a detailed restart plan and undergo a third-party audit. That in the aftermath of an announcement from...
- The Energy Report - Draghi Drag
August 03 2012 8:27 AM
I guess we could have been more disappointed. Oh sure in the after math of the ECB rate decision and the lack of definitive action From Mario Draghi one might think that the market would get crushed. While the market did sell of it really wasn't as bad as one might think especially after Mr. Draghi raised expectations so high. It seems that despite the disappointment the markets wanted to believe that despite the fact that Draghi did not offer any instant gratification his rhetoric seemed ver...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
August 02 2012 10:29 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 1'08 higher at 151'18 and the 10 Yr. Notes up 19 at 134'24. Quite a story this morning as to market volatility. Jobless claims were up 8,000 vs. expectations of up 13,000. The initial reaction was to the downside as the Bonds broke from the 150'00 level to 149'16. Keep in mind that the Bonds were already trading a bit lower in response to the ECB and the Bank of England keeping rates unchanged. The market then awaited comments by the ECB's Mario Draghi...
- The Energy Report - Here we go again!
August 02 2012 8:03 AM
The Fed gave oil a little ride after deciding to send a sign to the market that while they are not quite ready to act just yet they are waiting in the wings. The Oil sold off as soon as traders read that the Fed said that economic activity has decelerated raising hopes that perhaps the Fed is getting ready to act even though they held their fire. Or maybe just maybe they believe that Mr. Magic Mario Draghi the man who said that he would do whatever it takes to provide the type of surprise that ...
- The Energy Report - Dampening Down Expectations
August 01 2012 8:56 AM
To print or not to print that is the question. The markets yesterday seemed to suggest that perhaps the world isn't getting ready to go on a massive money printing party after all. European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi who vowed that he would do whatever it takes to save the Euro might not mean that much without the support of Germany. Besides with better than expected data in the US and in the aftermath of the Fed's extension of Operation Twist the Odds that the Fed will wait before th...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 31 2012 11:07 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 14 higher at 151'14 and the 10 Yr. Note 7.5 higher at 134'24.5. Since my last "Report",Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. The market has taken this to mean the possibility of "Quantitative Easing". It was also rumored that their will be talks with the Germans about buying government Bonds in an effort to push rates lower. All of this was viewed as positive actions for European soveriegn debt a...
- The Energy Report - We Are Going to Pump You UP!
July 31 2012 8:03 AM
The global markets are getting ready to get pumped up on hopes of massive stimulation across many continents. Reuters News reported that the official Chinese Newspaper Xinhua quoted Chinese President Hu Jintao as saying that China would increase fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year.
- Challenging the Paradigms of Investing
July 30 2012 4:33 PM
It was an exciting and educational week. I was in Vancouver at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaking to hundreds of investors who are eager to learn how to grow and protect their wealth. This year's theme, "Innovate or Die," fit well with my presentation, as the conference challenged attendees to adapt their investment strategies just as empires and enterprises adjust to changing circumstances.
- Will the Market's Direction Determine the Presidency?
July 28 2012 2:01 AM
After the first few months of President Barack Obama's term in office, I wrote about the carnival rollercoaster the market was riding. Looking at the blue line below, that post may have foreshadowed his tenure! The average of four-year presidential cycles from 1953 through 2008 shows that the S&P 500 Index generally remains flat for almost the first two years, before heading higher in the second half.
- The Energy Report - The Draghi Drag
July 27 2012 3:01 PM
Mr. Mario Draghi head of the European Central Bank drug the oil market out of its renewed bearish malaise with a promise to do whatever it takes to save the Euro. Of Course saying that and doing it are two different things. Oil that was just shaking off its Iranian war fears now is rallying on dreams of a massive global economic sugar high. Yet with Spain's unemployment surging to decade's highs the market is becoming mort skeptical that Mario Draghi has what it takes to do 'whatever it...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 26 2012 12:06 PM
Sept. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 152'06 and Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 134'29.5. Weekly Jobless Claims were down by 35,000 vs. expectations of down 12K. Durable Goods were up 1.6% vs. expectations of up only 0.6%. Also Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. All of this has pushed the Bonds slightly lower from recent highs just above the 153'00 level, not very impressive. The market now looks to next week's FOMC meeting ...
- The Energy Report - Stimulating Talk
July 26 2012 11:37 AM
Forget about that so called bearish Energy Information Administration inventory report oil rebounded big time on stimulating talk. No I am not talking about the stimulating talk that you get each day on the Fox Business Network but talk that the Fed is getting ready to act on our floundering economy.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
July 20 2012 11:41 AM
Over night Dec. Corn is 9'4 higher at 788'0, Nov. Beans 22'0 higher at 1674'2 and Dec. Wheat 1'0 lower at 933'0. Trying not to state the obvious, Corn and Beans are at record highs due to drought conditions in key growing areas East of the Mississippi. Technically Dec. Corn has a chart count objective of 820'0 to 840'0 if the market can settle above the 800'0 level. Admittedly I have missed this last leg to the upside from the 750'0 level to present prices and curre...
- The Energy Report - Oil Going One Way but Supply is Going Another
July 20 2012 8:34 AM
While oil looks like it is breaking out driven by renewed war fears and an uptick in US demand signs that demand in China is slowing may give the bulls some pause. Still the big question is after the terror attack in Bulgaria and the turmoil in Syria will anyone have the courage to be short into the weekend? While it is unlikely that Israel will attack Iran over the weekend and the war premium is a little high so maybe the bears might try to make a bit of a stand.
- The Energy Report - Rising Demand and Rising Tensions
July 19 2012 9:18 AM
Rising demand and rising tensions in the world caused oil futures to soar above 90 for the first time since last May. The Energy Information Agency report increased the amount of total petroleum use and increased hopes of more stimuli from China and Europe and even eventually from the US supported prices. Yet it was a terrorist act in Bulgaria and a bombing in Syria that turned a market that had an upward bias into what could be a full scale upward breakout. Still with rising yields in Spain and...
- The Energy Report - Ben's Bust
July 18 2012 8:54 AM
Ben Bernanke may not be ready to do QE3D just yet but after some initial disappointment oil turned around and rallied anyway. The upward bias in oil seems to be getting more bullish as strength in the US housing market and a strong industrial production number seemed to add to demand expectations in the marketplace. Oh Sure Mr. Bernanke laid out some options that the Fed might take like QE or lending money out of the discount window and even jaw boning the market about upcoming Fed policy. Ther...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
July 17 2012 10:15 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 151'05 and the 10 Yr. Note5 lower at 134'21. Yesterday the market approached long term resistance of the 152'16 area with a high of 152'10. The market receded from this level as the Dollar started to trade a bit lower against the Euro after making new recent highs. For the near term support is the 150'02 area and resistance the 152'10 area. Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a semi-annual speech today. As mentioned in the last few Reports, I prefe...
- How to Look Past Negativity to See Opportunity
July 17 2012 8:52 AM
I recently spoke at FreedomFest in Vegas along with the world's best and brightest minds, such as Steve Forbes, Senator Rand Paul, and Whole Foods CEO John Mackey. I discussed the growing global demand of resources and gold to a crowd of 2,000. Half of the group was attending for the first time, which demonstrates to me a growing curiosity to learn about macro trends shaping the world and affecting our investments.
- The Energy Report - Strait Talk
July 17 2012 8:44 AM
It is obvious that the simmering tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are starting to boil over. Yesterday a report that a US ship fired on a boat just outside of the strait send Brent and WTI up to a new high for the session. This comes as the market already had a bullish bias in anticipation of what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might say about another shot of stimuli against a backdrop of a slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered growth Forecasts and more European banks have b...
- The Energy Report - Taking the Pipeline!
July 16 2012 8:21 AM
With the recent surge in Brent crude due to increased tension with Iran the announcement that oil is flowing through a pipeline to circumvent the Straits of Hormuz is somewhat comforting. While oil is trying to get a feeling for the depth of the slowdown in China there is no doubt that increased geo-political risk over Iran has added to that bullish rebound in price.