- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 31 2012 11:07 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 14 higher at 151'14 and the 10 Yr. Note 7.5 higher at 134'24.5. Since my last "Report",Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. The market has taken this to mean the possibility of "Quantitative Easing". It was also rumored that their will be talks with the Germans about buying government Bonds in an effort to push rates lower. All of this was viewed as positive actions for European soveriegn debt a...
- The Energy Report - We Are Going to Pump You UP!
July 31 2012 8:03 AM
The global markets are getting ready to get pumped up on hopes of massive stimulation across many continents. Reuters News reported that the official Chinese Newspaper Xinhua quoted Chinese President Hu Jintao as saying that China would increase fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year.
- Challenging the Paradigms of Investing
July 30 2012 4:33 PM
It was an exciting and educational week. I was in Vancouver at the Agora Financial Investment Symposium speaking to hundreds of investors who are eager to learn how to grow and protect their wealth. This year's theme, "Innovate or Die," fit well with my presentation, as the conference challenged attendees to adapt their investment strategies just as empires and enterprises adjust to changing circumstances.
- Will the Market's Direction Determine the Presidency?
July 28 2012 2:01 AM
After the first few months of President Barack Obama's term in office, I wrote about the carnival rollercoaster the market was riding. Looking at the blue line below, that post may have foreshadowed his tenure! The average of four-year presidential cycles from 1953 through 2008 shows that the S&P 500 Index generally remains flat for almost the first two years, before heading higher in the second half.
- The Energy Report - The Draghi Drag
July 27 2012 3:01 PM
Mr. Mario Draghi head of the European Central Bank drug the oil market out of its renewed bearish malaise with a promise to do whatever it takes to save the Euro. Of Course saying that and doing it are two different things. Oil that was just shaking off its Iranian war fears now is rallying on dreams of a massive global economic sugar high. Yet with Spain's unemployment surging to decade's highs the market is becoming mort skeptical that Mario Draghi has what it takes to do 'whatever it...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 26 2012 12:06 PM
Sept. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 152'06 and Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 134'29.5. Weekly Jobless Claims were down by 35,000 vs. expectations of down 12K. Durable Goods were up 1.6% vs. expectations of up only 0.6%. Also Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. All of this has pushed the Bonds slightly lower from recent highs just above the 153'00 level, not very impressive. The market now looks to next week's FOMC meeting ...
- The Energy Report - Stimulating Talk
July 26 2012 11:37 AM
Forget about that so called bearish Energy Information Administration inventory report oil rebounded big time on stimulating talk. No I am not talking about the stimulating talk that you get each day on the Fox Business Network but talk that the Fed is getting ready to act on our floundering economy.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
July 20 2012 11:41 AM
Over night Dec. Corn is 9'4 higher at 788'0, Nov. Beans 22'0 higher at 1674'2 and Dec. Wheat 1'0 lower at 933'0. Trying not to state the obvious, Corn and Beans are at record highs due to drought conditions in key growing areas East of the Mississippi. Technically Dec. Corn has a chart count objective of 820'0 to 840'0 if the market can settle above the 800'0 level. Admittedly I have missed this last leg to the upside from the 750'0 level to present prices and curre...
- The Energy Report - Oil Going One Way but Supply is Going Another
July 20 2012 8:34 AM
While oil looks like it is breaking out driven by renewed war fears and an uptick in US demand signs that demand in China is slowing may give the bulls some pause. Still the big question is after the terror attack in Bulgaria and the turmoil in Syria will anyone have the courage to be short into the weekend? While it is unlikely that Israel will attack Iran over the weekend and the war premium is a little high so maybe the bears might try to make a bit of a stand.
- The Energy Report - Rising Demand and Rising Tensions
July 19 2012 9:18 AM
Rising demand and rising tensions in the world caused oil futures to soar above 90 for the first time since last May. The Energy Information Agency report increased the amount of total petroleum use and increased hopes of more stimuli from China and Europe and even eventually from the US supported prices. Yet it was a terrorist act in Bulgaria and a bombing in Syria that turned a market that had an upward bias into what could be a full scale upward breakout. Still with rising yields in Spain and...
- The Energy Report - Ben's Bust
July 18 2012 8:54 AM
Ben Bernanke may not be ready to do QE3D just yet but after some initial disappointment oil turned around and rallied anyway. The upward bias in oil seems to be getting more bullish as strength in the US housing market and a strong industrial production number seemed to add to demand expectations in the marketplace. Oh Sure Mr. Bernanke laid out some options that the Fed might take like QE or lending money out of the discount window and even jaw boning the market about upcoming Fed policy. Ther...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
July 17 2012 10:15 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 151'05 and the 10 Yr. Note5 lower at 134'21. Yesterday the market approached long term resistance of the 152'16 area with a high of 152'10. The market receded from this level as the Dollar started to trade a bit lower against the Euro after making new recent highs. For the near term support is the 150'02 area and resistance the 152'10 area. Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a semi-annual speech today. As mentioned in the last few Reports, I prefe...
- How to Look Past Negativity to See Opportunity
July 17 2012 8:52 AM
I recently spoke at FreedomFest in Vegas along with the world's best and brightest minds, such as Steve Forbes, Senator Rand Paul, and Whole Foods CEO John Mackey. I discussed the growing global demand of resources and gold to a crowd of 2,000. Half of the group was attending for the first time, which demonstrates to me a growing curiosity to learn about macro trends shaping the world and affecting our investments.
- The Energy Report - Strait Talk
July 17 2012 8:44 AM
It is obvious that the simmering tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are starting to boil over. Yesterday a report that a US ship fired on a boat just outside of the strait send Brent and WTI up to a new high for the session. This comes as the market already had a bullish bias in anticipation of what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might say about another shot of stimuli against a backdrop of a slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered growth Forecasts and more European banks have b...
- The Energy Report - Taking the Pipeline!
July 16 2012 8:21 AM
With the recent surge in Brent crude due to increased tension with Iran the announcement that oil is flowing through a pipeline to circumvent the Straits of Hormuz is somewhat comforting. While oil is trying to get a feeling for the depth of the slowdown in China there is no doubt that increased geo-political risk over Iran has added to that bullish rebound in price.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 13 2012 10:03 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 8 lower at 151'12 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 134'18. The Bonds continue to rally with yields in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. and just below the 1.5% level (1.47%) for the 10 Yr. as a result of Operation Twist and a slowing economy in China. That being said, we are now technically near enough long term resistance of the 152'00-153'00 levels that the 30 Yr. Bond is worth watching for a short sale on a sharp rally into the mid 152 level (152'16),...
- The Energy Report - China Slows and Euro Woes
July 13 2012 7:30 AM
China's growth fell to 7.6 per cent in the second quarter which was its slowest since early 2009 giving oil a boost off of renewed Chinese stimulus hopes. China's real estate market is softening and is causing some to speculate that China will act again to try to pump up growth despite the fact that a 7.6 percent growth rate would be nice if China could keep growth at that Goldilocks level. Yet the fear is that without stimulus that number will continue to fall.
- The Energy Report - QE BLUES
July 12 2012 7:33 AM
One day after stunningly bullish crude oil draw oil seems to be suffering from the QE blues. In the aftermath of the Fed minutes traders were disappointed that the Fed seems more split on another round of QE easing. Many believed that the printing presses were being filled with ink getting ready to roll but the rising concerns over the wisdom of that policy in the here and now seemed to suggest that the odds of a quick printing fix is less likely as opposed to more likely.
- The Grain Report
July 11 2012 3:32 PM
Our first report came out Monday at 10 AM central time with the weekly export inspection report. For corn 22.8 million bushels were inspected to be shipped near-term about unchanged from last week's 22.3 it's consistent with the four-week average and shows that there's at least some demand even at lofty prices. Soybeans showed 18.9 million bushels will inspected to be shipped near-term up sharply from 14.6 last week and well over the four-week average.
- The Energy Report - Falling OPEC Production
July 11 2012 12:25 PM
Oil production from the OPEC cartel is falling led by a drop from the nuclear ambitious Iranian regime. As reported by Dow Jones oil production from Iran fell below 3 million barrels in the month of June. At the same time our friendly cartel is predicting that global oil demand growth will fall to only 800,000 barrels a day a prediction that may put more pressure on producers to cut back on production. OPEC is now saying that 2013 oil demand will average only 89.5 million barrels a day and that ...