Commentary

July 31 2012 8:03 AM

The global markets are getting ready to get pumped up on hopes of massive stimulation across many continents. Reuters News reported that the official Chinese Newspaper Xinhua quoted Chinese President Hu Jintao as saying that China would increase fiscal and monetary policy in the second half of the year.

July 28 2012 2:01 AM

After the first few months of President Barack Obama's term in office, I wrote about the carnival rollercoaster the market was riding. Looking at the blue line below, that post may have foreshadowed his tenure! The average of four-year presidential cycles from 1953 through 2008 shows that the S&P 500 Index generally remains flat for almost the first two years, before heading higher in the second half.

July 26 2012 12:06 PM

Sept. Bonds are currently 20 lower at 152'06 and Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 134'29.5. Weekly Jobless Claims were down by 35,000 vs. expectations of down 12K. Durable Goods were up 1.6% vs. expectations of up only 0.6%. Also Mario Draghi of the ECB announced that the ECB will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro. All of this has pushed the Bonds slightly lower from recent highs just above the 153'00 level, not very impressive. The market now looks to next week's FOMC meeting ...

July 20 2012 11:41 AM

Over night Dec. Corn is 9'4 higher at 788'0, Nov. Beans 22'0 higher at 1674'2 and Dec. Wheat 1'0 lower at 933'0. Trying not to state the obvious, Corn and Beans are at record highs due to drought conditions in key growing areas East of the Mississippi. Technically Dec. Corn has a chart count objective of 820'0 to 840'0 if the market can settle above the 800'0 level. Admittedly I have missed this last leg to the upside from the 750'0 level to present prices and curre...

July 19 2012 9:18 AM

Rising demand and rising tensions in the world caused oil futures to soar above 90 for the first time since last May. The Energy Information Agency report increased the amount of total petroleum use and increased hopes of more stimuli from China and Europe and even eventually from the US supported prices. Yet it was a terrorist act in Bulgaria and a bombing in Syria that turned a market that had an upward bias into what could be a full scale upward breakout. Still with rising yields in Spain and...

July 17 2012 10:15 AM

Sept. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 151'05 and the 10 Yr. Note5 lower at 134'21. Yesterday the market approached long term resistance of the 152'16 area with a high of 152'10. The market receded from this level as the Dollar started to trade a bit lower against the Euro after making new recent highs. For the near term support is the 150'02 area and resistance the 152'10 area. Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a semi-annual speech today. As mentioned in the last few Reports, I prefe...

July 17 2012 8:44 AM

It is obvious that the simmering tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are starting to boil over. Yesterday a report that a US ship fired on a boat just outside of the strait send Brent and WTI up to a new high for the session. This comes as the market already had a bullish bias in anticipation of what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might say about another shot of stimuli against a backdrop of a slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered growth Forecasts and more European banks have b...

July 13 2012 10:03 AM

Sept. Bonds are currently 8 lower at 151'12 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 134'18. The Bonds continue to rally with yields in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. and just below the 1.5% level (1.47%) for the 10 Yr. as a result of Operation Twist and a slowing economy in China. That being said, we are now technically near enough long term resistance of the 152'00-153'00 levels that the 30 Yr. Bond is worth watching for a short sale on a sharp rally into the mid 152 level (152'16),...

July 12 2012 7:33 AM

One day after stunningly bullish crude oil draw oil seems to be suffering from the QE blues. In the aftermath of the Fed minutes traders were disappointed that the Fed seems more split on another round of QE easing. Many believed that the printing presses were being filled with ink getting ready to roll but the rising concerns over the wisdom of that policy in the here and now seemed to suggest that the odds of a quick printing fix is less likely as opposed to more likely.