The Energy Report - Oil Going One Way but Supply is Going Another
July 20 2012 8:34 AM
While oil looks like it is breaking out driven by renewed war fears and an uptick in US demand signs that demand in China is slowing may give the bulls some pause. Still the big question is after the terror attack in Bulgaria and the turmoil in Syria will anyone have the courage to be short into the weekend? While it is unlikely that Israel will attack Iran over the weekend and the war premium is a little high so maybe the bears might try to make a bit of a stand.
The Energy Report - Rising Demand and Rising Tensions
July 19 2012 9:18 AM
Rising demand and rising tensions in the world caused oil futures to soar above 90 for the first time since last May. The Energy Information Agency report increased the amount of total petroleum use and increased hopes of more stimuli from China and Europe and even eventually from the US supported prices. Yet it was a terrorist act in Bulgaria and a bombing in Syria that turned a market that had an upward bias into what could be a full scale upward breakout. Still with rising yields in Spain and...
The Energy Report - Ben's Bust
July 18 2012 8:54 AM
Ben Bernanke may not be ready to do QE3D just yet but after some initial disappointment oil turned around and rallied anyway. The upward bias in oil seems to be getting more bullish as strength in the US housing market and a strong industrial production number seemed to add to demand expectations in the marketplace. Oh Sure Mr. Bernanke laid out some options that the Fed might take like QE or lending money out of the discount window and even jaw boning the market about upcoming Fed policy. Ther...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
July 17 2012 10:15 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 18 lower at 151'05 and the 10 Yr. Note5 lower at 134'21. Yesterday the market approached long term resistance of the 152'16 area with a high of 152'10. The market receded from this level as the Dollar started to trade a bit lower against the Euro after making new recent highs. For the near term support is the 150'02 area and resistance the 152'10 area. Fed Chairman Bernanke gives a semi-annual speech today. As mentioned in the last few Reports, I prefe...
How to Look Past Negativity to See Opportunity
July 17 2012 8:52 AM
I recently spoke at FreedomFest in Vegas along with the world's best and brightest minds, such as Steve Forbes, Senator Rand Paul, and Whole Foods CEO John Mackey. I discussed the growing global demand of resources and gold to a crowd of 2,000. Half of the group was attending for the first time, which demonstrates to me a growing curiosity to learn about macro trends shaping the world and affecting our investments.
The Energy Report - Strait Talk
July 17 2012 8:44 AM
It is obvious that the simmering tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are starting to boil over. Yesterday a report that a US ship fired on a boat just outside of the strait send Brent and WTI up to a new high for the session. This comes as the market already had a bullish bias in anticipation of what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke might say about another shot of stimuli against a backdrop of a slowing global economy. The International Monetary Fund lowered growth Forecasts and more European banks have b...
The Energy Report - Taking the Pipeline!
July 16 2012 8:21 AM
With the recent surge in Brent crude due to increased tension with Iran the announcement that oil is flowing through a pipeline to circumvent the Straits of Hormuz is somewhat comforting. While oil is trying to get a feeling for the depth of the slowdown in China there is no doubt that increased geo-political risk over Iran has added to that bullish rebound in price.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 13 2012 10:03 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 8 lower at 151'12 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 134'18. The Bonds continue to rally with yields in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. and just below the 1.5% level (1.47%) for the 10 Yr. as a result of Operation Twist and a slowing economy in China. That being said, we are now technically near enough long term resistance of the 152'00-153'00 levels that the 30 Yr. Bond is worth watching for a short sale on a sharp rally into the mid 152 level (152'16),...
The Energy Report - China Slows and Euro Woes
July 13 2012 7:30 AM
China's growth fell to 7.6 per cent in the second quarter which was its slowest since early 2009 giving oil a boost off of renewed Chinese stimulus hopes. China's real estate market is softening and is causing some to speculate that China will act again to try to pump up growth despite the fact that a 7.6 percent growth rate would be nice if China could keep growth at that Goldilocks level. Yet the fear is that without stimulus that number will continue to fall.
The Energy Report - QE BLUES
July 12 2012 7:33 AM
One day after stunningly bullish crude oil draw oil seems to be suffering from the QE blues. In the aftermath of the Fed minutes traders were disappointed that the Fed seems more split on another round of QE easing. Many believed that the printing presses were being filled with ink getting ready to roll but the rising concerns over the wisdom of that policy in the here and now seemed to suggest that the odds of a quick printing fix is less likely as opposed to more likely.
The Grain Report
July 11 2012 3:32 PM
Our first report came out Monday at 10 AM central time with the weekly export inspection report. For corn 22.8 million bushels were inspected to be shipped near-term about unchanged from last week's 22.3 it's consistent with the four-week average and shows that there's at least some demand even at lofty prices. Soybeans showed 18.9 million bushels will inspected to be shipped near-term up sharply from 14.6 last week and well over the four-week average.
The Energy Report - Falling OPEC Production
July 11 2012 12:25 PM
Oil production from the OPEC cartel is falling led by a drop from the nuclear ambitious Iranian regime. As reported by Dow Jones oil production from Iran fell below 3 million barrels in the month of June. At the same time our friendly cartel is predicting that global oil demand growth will fall to only 800,000 barrels a day a prediction that may put more pressure on producers to cut back on production. OPEC is now saying that 2013 oil demand will average only 89.5 million barrels a day and that ...
DJ U.S. CORN: Futures Rally as USDA Sharply Cuts Crop Outlook
July 11 2012 11:27 AM
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply-and-demand report estimated the average U.S. yield at 146 bushels per acre, down sharply from its projection of 166 bushels per acre a month ago.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
July 10 2012 10:23 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 150'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 2 lower at 134'15.5. Continued flight to quality (safety)have pushed yields down on longer term instruments. Denmark, Finland and Germany now have negative interest rates on short term instruments. I continue to have a neutral bias on Bonds at the moment but will change my bias to negative as we approach long term resistance in the 152'00 to 153'00 areas.
The Energy Report - Norway and China Strike Out!
July 10 2012 8:11 AM
Oil prices fell as Norway's government moves to halt a strike that could have shut down all of their oil output but a drop in commodity demand by China could signal more stimuli. In China imports of key industrial commodities were lower almost across the board last month when compared to a month earlier. Iron ore imports were down 9% from May. Crude oil imports fell 15% to a seven-month low. Copper shipments declined nearly 18% according to Dow Jones.
July 09 2012 5:35 PM
For old-crop July futures, we felt the ongoing drought in the major [soybean] growing countries of Brazil and Argentina during January and February would create a grain rally into late February followed by a break in prices in March, leading to another good buying opportunity. The basis of this thought was, no matter how bullish the weather was, large trading funds always clean out their books before the planting season begins. What actually occurred?
The Energy Report - Stimulus a go-go
July 09 2012 7:24 AM
Round and round she goes who will act next no one knows QE or no QE that is the question. The EU meets in Brussels in the aftermath of Friday's pathetic US jobs report. Oil traders seem to believe that as bad as the data was somehow the rest of the world is still worse off and the odds of QE from the US while higher it will not give this market strong support. Even as threats from Iran and a labor strike in Norway is failing to provide support to a market that is facing up to the reality of ...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
July 06 2012 10:16 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 19 higher at 149'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 9 higher at 134'08. This morning's Unemployment Report showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 80,000 vs. expectations of 100,000. This was disappointing in light of yesterday's ADP private sector jobs estimate which showed an increase of 176k vs. expectations of 108k, and the Jobless Claims Report which showed a decline of 14k vs. an expectation of a decline of 4k. Also the ECB lowered it's key lending rate by 2...
The Energy Report - What's the Difference?
July 06 2012 9:59 AM
Oil supply may rise or fall like they did in yesterday's Energy Information Administration report. But what matters to oil more than anything else right now is the differing rate expectations as the EU and China cuts rates, the UK prints and the United States intentions are still a big question mark. No critics will point to the supply and demand numbers and claim that somehow the market has divorced itself from the fundamentals but by doing so, they really are ignoring the most important fun...
Crude Oil May Have Bottomed on Central Bank Actions
July 05 2012 12:51 PM
WTI crude oil price continued the reversal that started last week after the EU summit paved the the way for a risk rally from 77.30. So far this week, the rally has extended to almost 89.00. This rally is in-line with expectations of central bank action. The BoE for example added £50 billion to its Asset Purchase Program (QE), making the total £375 Billion. The ECB cut the benchmark rate from 1.0% to a historical low of 0.75%, also reducing the deposit rate to 0%. Even the People's Bank of Ch...