Commentary

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    July 13 2012 10:03 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 8 lower at 151'12 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 lower at 134'18. The Bonds continue to rally with yields in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. and just below the 1.5% level (1.47%) for the 10 Yr. as a result of Operation Twist and a slowing economy in China. That being said, we are now technically near enough long term resistance of the 152'00-153'00 levels that the 30 Yr. Bond is worth watching for a short sale on a sharp rally into the mid 152 level (152'16),...

  • The Energy Report - China Slows and Euro Woes

    July 13 2012 7:30 AM

    China's growth fell to 7.6 per cent in the second quarter which was its slowest since early 2009 giving oil a boost off of renewed Chinese stimulus hopes. China's real estate market is softening and is causing some to speculate that China will act again to try to pump up growth despite the fact that a 7.6 percent growth rate would be nice if China could keep growth at that Goldilocks level. Yet the fear is that without stimulus that number will continue to fall.

  • The Energy Report - QE BLUES

    July 12 2012 7:33 AM

    One day after stunningly bullish crude oil draw oil seems to be suffering from the QE blues. In the aftermath of the Fed minutes traders were disappointed that the Fed seems more split on another round of QE easing. Many believed that the printing presses were being filled with ink getting ready to roll but the rising concerns over the wisdom of that policy in the here and now seemed to suggest that the odds of a quick printing fix is less likely as opposed to more likely.

  • The Grain Report

    July 11 2012 3:32 PM

    Our first report came out Monday at 10 AM central time with the weekly export inspection report. For corn 22.8 million bushels were inspected to be shipped near-term about unchanged from last week's 22.3 it's consistent with the four-week average and shows that there's at least some demand even at lofty prices. Soybeans showed 18.9 million bushels will inspected to be shipped near-term up sharply from 14.6 last week and well over the four-week average.

  • The Energy Report - Falling OPEC Production

    July 11 2012 12:25 PM

    Oil production from the OPEC cartel is falling led by a drop from the nuclear ambitious Iranian regime. As reported by Dow Jones oil production from Iran fell below 3 million barrels in the month of June. At the same time our friendly cartel is predicting that global oil demand growth will fall to only 800,000 barrels a day a prediction that may put more pressure on producers to cut back on production. OPEC is now saying that 2013 oil demand will average only 89.5 million barrels a day and that ...

  • DJ U.S. CORN: Futures Rally as USDA Sharply Cuts Crop Outlook

    July 11 2012 11:27 AM

    The U.S. Department of Agriculture's monthly supply-and-demand report estimated the average U.S. yield at 146 bushels per acre, down sharply from its projection of 166 bushels per acre a month ago.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    July 10 2012 10:23 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 3 lower at 150'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 2 lower at 134'15.5. Continued flight to quality (safety)have pushed yields down on longer term instruments. Denmark, Finland and Germany now have negative interest rates on short term instruments. I continue to have a neutral bias on Bonds at the moment but will change my bias to negative as we approach long term resistance in the 152'00 to 153'00 areas.

  • The Energy Report - Norway and China Strike Out!

    July 10 2012 8:11 AM

    Oil prices fell as Norway's government moves to halt a strike that could have shut down all of their oil output but a drop in commodity demand by China could signal more stimuli. In China imports of key industrial commodities were lower almost across the board last month when compared to a month earlier. Iron ore imports were down 9% from May. Crude oil imports fell 15% to a seven-month low. Copper shipments declined nearly 18% according to Dow Jones.

  • GRAINS OUTLOOK

    July 09 2012 5:35 PM

    For old-crop July futures, we felt the ongoing drought in the major [soybean] growing countries of Brazil and Argentina during January and February would create a grain rally into late February followed by a break in prices in March, leading to another good buying opportunity. The basis of this thought was, no matter how bullish the weather was, large trading funds always clean out their books before the planting season begins. What actually occurred?

  • The Energy Report - Stimulus a go-go

    July 09 2012 7:24 AM

    Round and round she goes who will act next no one knows QE or no QE that is the question. The EU meets in Brussels in the aftermath of Friday's pathetic US jobs report. Oil traders seem to believe that as bad as the data was somehow the rest of the world is still worse off and the odds of QE from the US while higher it will not give this market strong support. Even as threats from Iran and a labor strike in Norway is failing to provide support to a market that is facing up to the reality of ...

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    July 06 2012 10:16 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 19 higher at 149'16 and the 10 Yr. Note 9 higher at 134'08. This morning's Unemployment Report showed an increase in non-farm payrolls of 80,000 vs. expectations of 100,000. This was disappointing in light of yesterday's ADP private sector jobs estimate which showed an increase of 176k vs. expectations of 108k, and the Jobless Claims Report which showed a decline of 14k vs. an expectation of a decline of 4k. Also the ECB lowered it's key lending rate by 2...

  • The Energy Report - What's the Difference?

    July 06 2012 9:59 AM

    Oil supply may rise or fall like they did in yesterday's Energy Information Administration report. But what matters to oil more than anything else right now is the differing rate expectations as the EU and China cuts rates, the UK prints and the United States intentions are still a big question mark. No critics will point to the supply and demand numbers and claim that somehow the market has divorced itself from the fundamentals but by doing so, they really are ignoring the most important fun...

  • Crude Oil May Have Bottomed on Central Bank Actions

    July 05 2012 12:51 PM

    WTI crude oil price continued the reversal that started last week after the EU summit paved the the way for a risk rally from 77.30. So far this week, the rally has extended to almost 89.00. This rally is in-line with expectations of central bank action. The BoE for example added £50 billion to its Asset Purchase Program (QE), making the total £375 Billion. The ECB cut the benchmark rate from 1.0% to a historical low of 0.75%, also reducing the deposit rate to 0%. Even the People's Bank of Ch...

  • The Energy Report - Showdown in the North Sea

    July 05 2012 9:31 AM

    While tensions seem to be easing over Iran after their temper tantrum in the Straits of Hormuz, the oil market now is focused on growing tensions in the North Sea. These tensions do not involve a conflict between countries but a conflict between Norway's Statoil and Norway's oil labor union the oil industry association. While the strike has been going on for only 12 days, already it seems Statoil has had enough and said it would lockout all workers at midnight on Monday. That would essenti...

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    July 03 2012 9:17 AM

    Dec. Corn is currently 8'0 higher at 664'0, Nov. Beans 10'0 higher at 1448'0 and Dec. Wheat 4'0 higher at 795'0. Hot dry weather has been the dominant force for the last few trading sessions pushing markets to new recent highs. On Friday we tried the short side of Dec. Corn in the 652'0 area with a 15 cent protective stop only to be stopped out over night in the 667'0 area. Until there is precipitation in the forecast these markets appear destined to trade higher. As for ...

  • The Energy Report - Unalienable Rights

    July 03 2012 9:05 AM

    As the European embargo on Iranian oil takes effect, an Iranian lawmaker borrowing from none other than Thomas Jefferson said they have unalienable right to nuclear technology. Of course the quote was spelled inalienable which brings up a debate that has been going on since 1776 as to which is correct. But it brings up the question as to whether a rouge state has a right either unalienable or inalienable to pursue a weapon of mass destruction or does the world have are responsibility to ...

  • Unmasking the Asian Giant

    July 02 2012 2:59 PM

    Chinese operas have been keeping audiences enthralled for hundreds of years with mythical characters, enchanting stories and elaborate masks that add drama and mystery. While this fantastical treatment is appreciated in the theatre, it isn't in global markets. Investors don't like mystery-think of how uncertainty has spooked markets in recent years.

  • The Energy Report - Pre Market Fireworks

    July 02 2012 9:19 AM

    Once again the commodities can't wait for the Fourth of July to provide us with fireworks! Oil had its biggest up move in years as hope for a Euro zone solution and short covering as we get ready to start the second half of the year. Who wanted to be short into a weekend where it was apparent the Spanish and Italian banks were not going to fail. Add to that the beginning of the European sanctions and the Iranian oil embargo driving provocative comments from Iranian Admiral Al Fadavi as saying...

  • The Grain Report - ACRES

    June 29 2012 1:22 PM

    The weekly export sales report Thursday for corn showed 291,000 metric tons was sold the week prior. It's clear that our government is slowing exports near-term until the crop yields are some what determined at the end of July as the current drought shows no sign of stopping. Last year spring floods and hot dry July coupled with the overly aggressive export pace left us with ending stocks this year of 851,000 metric tons or about a 50 day supply. So expect slow exports to show up until Augu...

  • The Energy Report - Healthcare Care and the Euro Surprise

    June 29 2012 9:18 AM

    Yesterday it appeared that oil and health care have a lot more in common than you'd think. No, I am not talking about oil being used for medical purposes like it was in the old days but the impact on the price of oil after the surprise Supreme Court provision to uphold the Obama-care individual mandate. Chief Justice Roberts, in the majority opinion, held that the law was a valid exercise of Congress's power to tax. Roberts changed the debate over health care by basically saying that forci...