- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
June 25 2012 10:37 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 1'04 higher at 149'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 17 higher at 133'17. Once again the markets are fearing the repercussions of European Soveriegn Debt seeking safety in U.S. Treasuries. An E.U. summit meeting later this week may either help or harm these perceptions putting me on the sidelines for the moment. Technically the market now has a wider than normal spread between suppport and resistance. Support is currently 147'26 and resistance 150'04.
- The Energy Report - 23% just isn't what it used to be
June 25 2012 8:46 AM
Tropical Storm Debby played havoc in the Gulf of Mexico shutting down 23% of oil and Gas production. Of course because of the Shale gas revolution 23% just is not what it used to be. Back in 2005 Gulf of Mexico offshore production accounted for about 30% of US oil production and 17% for us natural gas production. Now it only accounts for 20% of US oil production and the real shale bonus is in gas where gulf production only accounts for 6% of natural gas production. More production on lands means...
- The Grain Report - EXPORTS SLOWING
June 22 2012 3:45 PM
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed old crop year corn exports at 171t.m.t.. and new crop year 210 t.m.t. China was in for 19 t.m.t of the total. The past three weeks have confirmed that our government has importers backing away from old crop year export deliveries and largely going new crop year.
- The Energy Report - Feeling Low!
June 22 2012 9:31 AM
Commodities get crushed and commodity traders are feeling low. Like a nine month low on oil, a six month low on RBOB wholesale gasoline futures, an 18 month low on heating oil, a 6 month low on copper , a 21 day low on gold, a 6moth low on silver. Notably bucking the downtrend yesterday was coffee and orange juice. The market must have believed that after a day like yesterday that perhaps a lot of drinking would soon be going on.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
June 21 2012 9:47 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 148'17 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2 lower at 133'04. This mornings Initial Jobless Claims Report showed -2,000 vs. expectations of dow 1000. Yesterday's FOMC meeting left rates unchanged. However, the talk of continuation of Operation Twist (the buying of treasuries with maturities of 6-30 years and the selling of maturities of 3 years or less in an effort to keep rates low) kept the Bonds in a high volatility trade rallying from 147'25 to 149...
- The Energy Report - The Era Of High Gas Prices Has Ended!
June 21 2012 9:10 AM
Oil Prices tumble on fears that China is slowing and the Fed did not do enough. But look at the bright side the era of high gasoline prices has ended. In fact the high price that you paid for gasoline this year may be the highest price you pay for many years if not forever.
- The Energy Report - Twisting in the Wind, What Commodity Markets Expect From the FED
June 20 2012 10:55 AM
While markets twist in the wind ahead of the FED announcement we see the markets are at the very least pricing in another extension of Operation Twist. While the Yield curve is showing a little trepidation ahead of the big announcement the futures markets seem to be getting a bit of extra confidence from the cover they expect our friends at the Federal Reserve to provide. We see it really across the board among many commodities and really we have been pricing in some type of stimulus acr...
- The Grain Report - WEEK TO WEEK
June 19 2012 6:09 PM
With weather and its impact on yields being 90% of our daily and weekly pricing influence, were seeing huge weekly ranges. Last week's wet forecast broke beans $.50 corn $.34. The week prior dry forecasts had corn up $.44 and beans up $.95. So far this dry week with corn up $.55 and $.80 on beans. Looking back six weeks with 2 wet weeks and 4 dry weeks, the dry week rallies are 35 to 50% greater than the wet week declines. This comes from the fear that current tight corn stocks and historical...
- The Energy Report - Glory Days!
June 19 2012 8:47 AM
Remember the old days when the Fed held a little Mystique? When the markets had to decipher the Fed quatrains and try to determine exactly just what they were thinking? Glory days they will pass you by but today perhaps we can relive those glory days. The days before Fed Transparency and a meeting where not everything is a given and every action has been telegraphed. Today the markets may get a glimpse of those old glory days.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
June 18 2012 10:24 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 17 higher at 150'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 higher at 133'28. Initial euphoria over the conservative New Democratic Party winning the Greek election sent Bonds down more than 1'00 (32 ticks) to 148'12 before the reality of now what came into play. Will Greece be able to form a coalition government in the coming days? It seems to me that a new government will choose to stay in the EU, however, they may decide to renegotiate terms of austerity programs. ...
- The Energy Report - Ok Now What?
June 18 2012 9:46 AM
The markets rejoiced over the results of the Greek election at least initially. Of course shortly thereafter the markets are now asking now what. While the election results favoring the pro-Bailout parties seem to suggest that Greece will stay in the euro the greater issues that drove the markets to the brink of disaster really have not gone away. In fact some markets may be a bit disappointed as they were hoping for massive stimulus. Now that Greece has dodged the anti austerity bullet ...
- The Grain Report -FUTURE THOUGHTS
June 15 2012 1:16 PM
Thursday weekly export sales report showed old and new crop year bean sales at 1 million metric tons with China in for 740 t.m.t. of the total. No surprise here as China's business was reported daily confirming the sales prior of the report. But it does confirm a continued aggressive buying pace by China for old and new crop your delivery. China's old crop your purchase was 261 t.m.t. and new crop year 470 t.m.t.. Prior to this week China was more active in the old crop year business to b...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
June 15 2012 9:05 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 7 higher at 149'13 and the 10 Yr. Note 6 higher at 133'22. Once again we are seeing a measure of flight to safety ahead of this weekend's Greek elections. Because of the possibility of high volatility as a result of the elections Sunday night I am reluctant to initiate any new positions.
- Rain Likely Washes Away Hopes for Higher Corn and Bean Prices
June 14 2012 10:52 AM
Rain in the forecast could wipe out dry conditions and the chance for higher corn and bean prices. With the crops now planted, weather and its impact on the crops development is 90% of the pricing influence for the futures.
- The Energy Report Thursday June 14, 2012
June 14 2012 9:15 AM
As Saudi Arabia worries about losing market share to the shale gas revolution in the United States German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaling that Germany is going to pick up the check for the EU bailout is appealing to the rest of the globe to share the pain and do what they can do to stimulate growth. Such is the drama in the oil patch a day after refiners juiced up runs to the highest level since 2007. Is demand coming back and is the world on the verge of a coordinated intervention ah...
- The Grain Report - HARD LANDING
June 12 2012 5:28 PM
First things first, the USDA monthly crop report came out at 7:30 AM central time during open-market hours. No shockers or surprises. Everything was in line or ranges of guesses. The USDA left corn ending stocks for old crop year delivery before August 31 and new crop your delivery after September 1 unchanged on the month. Old crop year came in at 851 million bushels and new crop year 1.881 billion bushels. The pre-report trade guess had come in looking for a 23 million bushel cut on old crop an...
- The Energy Report - The One Hundred Billion Euro Bounce
June 12 2012 9:27 AM
Spain's banks get cash and oil gets one hundred billion reasons to rally or if you talk in dollars, 125 billion reasons to rally. So much for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proclamation that they would not need a bailout. Once again oil is following and the new the economic law of bailouts are bullish is inspiring the oil market. While no one believes that this is the end of the problems for the Spanish banks or the euro zone as a whole, it does give oil a reason to bounce....
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
June 04 2012 10:15 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 151'25 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 134'15. Rates continue to make near record lows in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. Bond and 1.5% area for the 10 Yr. The market awaits Greek elections mid month and news out of Spain and Italy concerning bank recapitalization. I am still on the sidelines as far as a long term futures position is concerned not willing to fade the fed yet. That being said, I am interested in the short side of the market and am ...
- Grain Market Comments
June 01 2012 6:54 PM
A new month but the same song. We entered with traders debating how much if at all will the USDA crop June 12 lower ending stocks. Demand for corn and beans were erratic with corn starting the month of May, week one, with 1.331 million metric tons old crop sold and 2.140 new crop before scaling back the next several weeks.
- Weather to be Corn?s Major Forecaster
May 31 2012 2:26 PM
Next week's warm and dry weather should boost prices and encourage traders to get re-positioned long just before the June 12 USDA monthly crop report. For the last five months, prices have rallied just before these reports. There's a fear that each month the government will lower ending stocks. With all planting nearly complete, weather will be the primary factor for weekly prices.