Commentary

June 25 2012 8:46 AM

Tropical Storm Debby played havoc in the Gulf of Mexico shutting down 23% of oil and Gas production. Of course because of the Shale gas revolution 23% just is not what it used to be. Back in 2005 Gulf of Mexico offshore production accounted for about 30% of US oil production and 17% for us natural gas production. Now it only accounts for 20% of US oil production and the real shale bonus is in gas where gulf production only accounts for 6% of natural gas production. More production on lands means...

June 22 2012 9:31 AM

Commodities get crushed and commodity traders are feeling low. Like a nine month low on oil, a six month low on RBOB wholesale gasoline futures, an 18 month low on heating oil, a 6 month low on copper , a 21 day low on gold, a 6moth low on silver. Notably bucking the downtrend yesterday was coffee and orange juice. The market must have believed that after a day like yesterday that perhaps a lot of drinking would soon be going on.

June 21 2012 9:10 AM

Oil Prices tumble on fears that China is slowing and the Fed did not do enough. But look at the bright side the era of high gasoline prices has ended. In fact the high price that you paid for gasoline this year may be the highest price you pay for many years if not forever.

June 19 2012 6:09 PM

With weather and its impact on yields being 90% of our daily and weekly pricing influence, were seeing huge weekly ranges. Last week's wet forecast broke beans $.50 corn $.34. The week prior dry forecasts had corn up $.44 and beans up $.95. So far this dry week with corn up $.55 and $.80 on beans. Looking back six weeks with 2 wet weeks and 4 dry weeks, the dry week rallies are 35 to 50% greater than the wet week declines. This comes from the fear that current tight corn stocks and historical...

June 18 2012 10:24 AM

Sept. Bonds are currently 17 higher at 150'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 higher at 133'28. Initial euphoria over the conservative New Democratic Party winning the Greek election sent Bonds down more than 1'00 (32 ticks) to 148'12 before the reality of now what came into play. Will Greece be able to form a coalition government in the coming days? It seems to me that a new government will choose to stay in the EU, however, they may decide to renegotiate terms of austerity programs. ...

June 15 2012 1:16 PM

Thursday weekly export sales report showed old and new crop year bean sales at 1 million metric tons with China in for 740 t.m.t. of the total. No surprise here as China's business was reported daily confirming the sales prior of the report. But it does confirm a continued aggressive buying pace by China for old and new crop your delivery. China's old crop your purchase was 261 t.m.t. and new crop year 470 t.m.t.. Prior to this week China was more active in the old crop year business to b...

June 14 2012 10:52 AM

Rain in the forecast could wipe out dry conditions and the chance for higher corn and bean prices. With the crops now planted, weather and its impact on the crops development is 90% of the pricing influence for the futures.

June 12 2012 5:28 PM

First things first, the USDA monthly crop report came out at 7:30 AM central time during open-market hours. No shockers or surprises. Everything was in line or ranges of guesses. The USDA left corn ending stocks for old crop year delivery before August 31 and new crop your delivery after September 1 unchanged on the month. Old crop year came in at 851 million bushels and new crop year 1.881 billion bushels. The pre-report trade guess had come in looking for a 23 million bushel cut on old crop an...

June 04 2012 10:15 AM

Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 151'25 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 134'15. Rates continue to make near record lows in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. Bond and 1.5% area for the 10 Yr. The market awaits Greek elections mid month and news out of Spain and Italy concerning bank recapitalization. I am still on the sidelines as far as a long term futures position is concerned not willing to fade the fed yet. That being said, I am interested in the short side of the market and am ...