- The Energy Report - Healthcare Care and the Euro Surprise
June 29 2012 9:18 AM
Yesterday it appeared that oil and health care have a lot more in common than you'd think. No, I am not talking about oil being used for medical purposes like it was in the old days but the impact on the price of oil after the surprise Supreme Court provision to uphold the Obama-care individual mandate. Chief Justice Roberts, in the majority opinion, held that the law was a valid exercise of Congress's power to tax. Roberts changed the debate over health care by basically saying that forci...
- Friday Acreage Report Key to Grain Trading
June 28 2012 10:53 AM
Friday morning's planted acreage report by the USDA could be a game changer during a critical growing time for grains. The report is due at 7:30 a.m. Central Friday. The next 40 days are critical for the 2012-13 corn and beans season. This has been the warmest year and among the top 10 driest on record.
- The Energy Report - Refiners Are Rocking!
June 28 2012 8:55 AM
In another sign that we are seeing a major shift in the fundamentals of the US oil market yesterday's Energy Information Administration weekly Petroleum Status report provided more evidence for my prediction that US gasoline prices may have peaked forever. Refiners just rocked an abundance of relatively cheap crude supply drove refinery runs to 92.6% the highest level since July of 2007. For those of you keeping score that is before that financial crisis really began to break and gas demand i...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
June 27 2012 9:19 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 4 lower at 148'25 and the 10 Yr. Note 1 lower at 133'13. Over the next few days we have Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, European Union Summit and the Supreme Court decision on Health Care (Obamacare). Bottom line: I prefer being on the sidelines and trading the market reaction.
- The Energy Report - In Good Company
June 27 2012 8:05 AM
In recent days and weeks I have made some predictions about gasoline prices and how the high price that you paid this summer may end up being the highest price you will ever pay. I also said that you heard it here first in the Energy Report and soon others will be jumping on this bandwagon. Well one part of my multi faceted argument for that prediction was backed up nicely by none other than Harvard University.
- The Grain Report - ADDED HEAT
June 26 2012 5:20 PM
Markets had no problem pricing in this week's weather with corn up$. 40, beans and wheat $.50 Monday. We closed last week higher on the week on lack of rain cutting probable quality conditions. But Saturday's weather models took the cooler weather for this week, added a heat dome for Wednesday into Saturday and dried-up any measurable rain expected. This led to sharply higher trade as Sunday electronic trading opened and continuing into Monday.
- The Energy Report - Structural Change
June 26 2012 8:26 AM
As gas price continue to plummet the question become will gas prices ever go up again. While tropical Debby churns away in the Gulf and could cause a price spike in the big picture as I have said before the era of high gas prices has ended. As the global economy goes through major retracting we are entering what should be a lost decade for gasoline demand growth. The frantic global demand growth that we saw in China and the emerging market will level out as Europe and the rest of the globe conti...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
June 25 2012 10:37 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 1'04 higher at 149'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 17 higher at 133'17. Once again the markets are fearing the repercussions of European Soveriegn Debt seeking safety in U.S. Treasuries. An E.U. summit meeting later this week may either help or harm these perceptions putting me on the sidelines for the moment. Technically the market now has a wider than normal spread between suppport and resistance. Support is currently 147'26 and resistance 150'04.
- The Energy Report - 23% just isn't what it used to be
June 25 2012 8:46 AM
Tropical Storm Debby played havoc in the Gulf of Mexico shutting down 23% of oil and Gas production. Of course because of the Shale gas revolution 23% just is not what it used to be. Back in 2005 Gulf of Mexico offshore production accounted for about 30% of US oil production and 17% for us natural gas production. Now it only accounts for 20% of US oil production and the real shale bonus is in gas where gulf production only accounts for 6% of natural gas production. More production on lands means...
- The Grain Report - EXPORTS SLOWING
June 22 2012 3:45 PM
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed old crop year corn exports at 171t.m.t.. and new crop year 210 t.m.t. China was in for 19 t.m.t of the total. The past three weeks have confirmed that our government has importers backing away from old crop year export deliveries and largely going new crop year.
- The Energy Report - Feeling Low!
June 22 2012 9:31 AM
Commodities get crushed and commodity traders are feeling low. Like a nine month low on oil, a six month low on RBOB wholesale gasoline futures, an 18 month low on heating oil, a 6 month low on copper , a 21 day low on gold, a 6moth low on silver. Notably bucking the downtrend yesterday was coffee and orange juice. The market must have believed that after a day like yesterday that perhaps a lot of drinking would soon be going on.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's Higher, Silver Lower
June 21 2012 9:47 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 2 lower at 148'17 and the 10 Yr. Notes 2 lower at 133'04. This mornings Initial Jobless Claims Report showed -2,000 vs. expectations of dow 1000. Yesterday's FOMC meeting left rates unchanged. However, the talk of continuation of Operation Twist (the buying of treasuries with maturities of 6-30 years and the selling of maturities of 3 years or less in an effort to keep rates low) kept the Bonds in a high volatility trade rallying from 147'25 to 149...
- The Energy Report - The Era Of High Gas Prices Has Ended!
June 21 2012 9:10 AM
Oil Prices tumble on fears that China is slowing and the Fed did not do enough. But look at the bright side the era of high gasoline prices has ended. In fact the high price that you paid for gasoline this year may be the highest price you pay for many years if not forever.
- The Energy Report - Twisting in the Wind, What Commodity Markets Expect From the FED
June 20 2012 10:55 AM
While markets twist in the wind ahead of the FED announcement we see the markets are at the very least pricing in another extension of Operation Twist. While the Yield curve is showing a little trepidation ahead of the big announcement the futures markets seem to be getting a bit of extra confidence from the cover they expect our friends at the Federal Reserve to provide. We see it really across the board among many commodities and really we have been pricing in some type of stimulus acr...
- The Grain Report - WEEK TO WEEK
June 19 2012 6:09 PM
With weather and its impact on yields being 90% of our daily and weekly pricing influence, were seeing huge weekly ranges. Last week's wet forecast broke beans $.50 corn $.34. The week prior dry forecasts had corn up $.44 and beans up $.95. So far this dry week with corn up $.55 and $.80 on beans. Looking back six weeks with 2 wet weeks and 4 dry weeks, the dry week rallies are 35 to 50% greater than the wet week declines. This comes from the fear that current tight corn stocks and historical...
- The Energy Report - Glory Days!
June 19 2012 8:47 AM
Remember the old days when the Fed held a little Mystique? When the markets had to decipher the Fed quatrains and try to determine exactly just what they were thinking? Glory days they will pass you by but today perhaps we can relive those glory days. The days before Fed Transparency and a meeting where not everything is a given and every action has been telegraphed. Today the markets may get a glimpse of those old glory days.
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
June 18 2012 10:24 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 17 higher at 150'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 higher at 133'28. Initial euphoria over the conservative New Democratic Party winning the Greek election sent Bonds down more than 1'00 (32 ticks) to 148'12 before the reality of now what came into play. Will Greece be able to form a coalition government in the coming days? It seems to me that a new government will choose to stay in the EU, however, they may decide to renegotiate terms of austerity programs. ...
- The Energy Report - Ok Now What?
June 18 2012 9:46 AM
The markets rejoiced over the results of the Greek election at least initially. Of course shortly thereafter the markets are now asking now what. While the election results favoring the pro-Bailout parties seem to suggest that Greece will stay in the euro the greater issues that drove the markets to the brink of disaster really have not gone away. In fact some markets may be a bit disappointed as they were hoping for massive stimulus. Now that Greece has dodged the anti austerity bullet ...
- The Grain Report -FUTURE THOUGHTS
June 15 2012 1:16 PM
Thursday weekly export sales report showed old and new crop year bean sales at 1 million metric tons with China in for 740 t.m.t. of the total. No surprise here as China's business was reported daily confirming the sales prior of the report. But it does confirm a continued aggressive buying pace by China for old and new crop your delivery. China's old crop your purchase was 261 t.m.t. and new crop year 470 t.m.t.. Prior to this week China was more active in the old crop year business to b...
- The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
June 15 2012 9:05 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 7 higher at 149'13 and the 10 Yr. Note 6 higher at 133'22. Once again we are seeing a measure of flight to safety ahead of this weekend's Greek elections. Because of the possibility of high volatility as a result of the elections Sunday night I am reluctant to initiate any new positions.