The Energy Report - Twisting in the Wind, What Commodity Markets Expect From the FED
June 20 2012 10:55 AM
While markets twist in the wind ahead of the FED announcement we see the markets are at the very least pricing in another extension of Operation Twist. While the Yield curve is showing a little trepidation ahead of the big announcement the futures markets seem to be getting a bit of extra confidence from the cover they expect our friends at the Federal Reserve to provide. We see it really across the board among many commodities and really we have been pricing in some type of stimulus acr...
The Grain Report - WEEK TO WEEK
June 19 2012 6:09 PM
With weather and its impact on yields being 90% of our daily and weekly pricing influence, were seeing huge weekly ranges. Last week's wet forecast broke beans $.50 corn $.34. The week prior dry forecasts had corn up $.44 and beans up $.95. So far this dry week with corn up $.55 and $.80 on beans. Looking back six weeks with 2 wet weeks and 4 dry weeks, the dry week rallies are 35 to 50% greater than the wet week declines. This comes from the fear that current tight corn stocks and historical...
The Energy Report - Glory Days!
June 19 2012 8:47 AM
Remember the old days when the Fed held a little Mystique? When the markets had to decipher the Fed quatrains and try to determine exactly just what they were thinking? Glory days they will pass you by but today perhaps we can relive those glory days. The days before Fed Transparency and a meeting where not everything is a given and every action has been telegraphed. Today the markets may get a glimpse of those old glory days.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Higher
June 18 2012 10:24 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 17 higher at 150'07 and the 10 Yr. Note 3 higher at 133'28. Initial euphoria over the conservative New Democratic Party winning the Greek election sent Bonds down more than 1'00 (32 ticks) to 148'12 before the reality of now what came into play. Will Greece be able to form a coalition government in the coming days? It seems to me that a new government will choose to stay in the EU, however, they may decide to renegotiate terms of austerity programs. ...
The Energy Report - Ok Now What?
June 18 2012 9:46 AM
The markets rejoiced over the results of the Greek election at least initially. Of course shortly thereafter the markets are now asking now what. While the election results favoring the pro-Bailout parties seem to suggest that Greece will stay in the euro the greater issues that drove the markets to the brink of disaster really have not gone away. In fact some markets may be a bit disappointed as they were hoping for massive stimulus. Now that Greece has dodged the anti austerity bullet ...
The Grain Report -FUTURE THOUGHTS
June 15 2012 1:16 PM
Thursday weekly export sales report showed old and new crop year bean sales at 1 million metric tons with China in for 740 t.m.t. of the total. No surprise here as China's business was reported daily confirming the sales prior of the report. But it does confirm a continued aggressive buying pace by China for old and new crop your delivery. China's old crop your purchase was 261 t.m.t. and new crop year 470 t.m.t.. Prior to this week China was more active in the old crop year business to b...
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Higher
June 15 2012 9:05 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 7 higher at 149'13 and the 10 Yr. Note 6 higher at 133'22. Once again we are seeing a measure of flight to safety ahead of this weekend's Greek elections. Because of the possibility of high volatility as a result of the elections Sunday night I am reluctant to initiate any new positions.
Rain Likely Washes Away Hopes for Higher Corn and Bean Prices
June 14 2012 10:52 AM
Rain in the forecast could wipe out dry conditions and the chance for higher corn and bean prices. With the crops now planted, weather and its impact on the crops development is 90% of the pricing influence for the futures.
The Energy Report Thursday June 14, 2012
June 14 2012 9:15 AM
As Saudi Arabia worries about losing market share to the shale gas revolution in the United States German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaling that Germany is going to pick up the check for the EU bailout is appealing to the rest of the globe to share the pain and do what they can do to stimulate growth. Such is the drama in the oil patch a day after refiners juiced up runs to the highest level since 2007. Is demand coming back and is the world on the verge of a coordinated intervention ah...
The Grain Report - HARD LANDING
June 12 2012 5:28 PM
First things first, the USDA monthly crop report came out at 7:30 AM central time during open-market hours. No shockers or surprises. Everything was in line or ranges of guesses. The USDA left corn ending stocks for old crop year delivery before August 31 and new crop your delivery after September 1 unchanged on the month. Old crop year came in at 851 million bushels and new crop year 1.881 billion bushels. The pre-report trade guess had come in looking for a 23 million bushel cut on old crop an...
The Energy Report - The One Hundred Billion Euro Bounce
June 12 2012 9:27 AM
Spain's banks get cash and oil gets one hundred billion reasons to rally or if you talk in dollars, 125 billion reasons to rally. So much for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proclamation that they would not need a bailout. Once again oil is following and the new the economic law of bailouts are bullish is inspiring the oil market. While no one believes that this is the end of the problems for the Spanish banks or the euro zone as a whole, it does give oil a reason to bounce....
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
June 04 2012 10:15 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 151'25 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 134'15. Rates continue to make near record lows in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. Bond and 1.5% area for the 10 Yr. The market awaits Greek elections mid month and news out of Spain and Italy concerning bank recapitalization. I am still on the sidelines as far as a long term futures position is concerned not willing to fade the fed yet. That being said, I am interested in the short side of the market and am ...
Grain Market Comments
June 01 2012 6:54 PM
A new month but the same song. We entered with traders debating how much if at all will the USDA crop June 12 lower ending stocks. Demand for corn and beans were erratic with corn starting the month of May, week one, with 1.331 million metric tons old crop sold and 2.140 new crop before scaling back the next several weeks.
Weather to be Corn?s Major Forecaster
May 31 2012 2:26 PM
Next week's warm and dry weather should boost prices and encourage traders to get re-positioned long just before the June 12 USDA monthly crop report. For the last five months, prices have rallied just before these reports. There's a fear that each month the government will lower ending stocks. With all planting nearly complete, weather will be the primary factor for weekly prices.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Lower
May 31 2012 9:34 AM
Sept. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 149'14 and the Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 4 higher at 133'26.5. The yield on the 10 Yr. Note is now at a nearly 60 year low of 1.612%. A number of reports this morning: GDP came in at up 1.9% vs. average expectations of 2.2%. ADP private sector jobs showed an increase of 133,000 vs expectations of 150,000. Weekly initial jobless claims were up 10,000 vs. expectations of unchanged. I still feel that the Bonds are near or at a bubble and recommend buying out of...
The Energy Report - The Pain in Spain
May 30 2012 1:58 PM
The pain is Spain drives down the grains. Not to mention oil, gold and silver. A Spanish downgrade and a vote of no confidence by the Belgium National Bank put the market into deflationary mode as the euro sank to a two-year low sending oil to perhaps its biggest monthly loss in almost three years. Eagan-Jones downgraded Spain's debt to bb- from b and left the country on a negative outlook. This comes right after the National Bank of Belgium reduced its exposure to sovereign debt from the eur...
Assets Slashed as North America Awaits Data
May 30 2012 11:40 AM
With Europe rattling markets and the rush to dollars, traders have dragged down Brent Crude to cap-off what looks to be its worst performance in two years.
The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower
May 30 2012 10:28 AM
June Bonds are currently 1'06 higher at 149'00 and the 10 Yr. Note 15 higher at 133'10. Yields continue to drop in an ongoing flight to quality as China denies reports of a stimulus program and Spain has problems attracting the capital from the international community to recapitalize their banks. As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, I am not able to participate in the market on the long side with yields so low feeling that the surprise will be on the downside. Cons...
CTA interview: Crescent Bay Capital Manatement, Inc
May 29 2012 8:09 PM
In this issue we talk to David Bedford of Crescent Bay Capital Management, a registered CTA with NFA.
S&P 500 Looking Better than Gold
May 29 2012 6:25 PM
After over 30-years of observing markets, if there is one thing I am certain of, it is that everything going on in the world naturally, socio-politically, and economically is reflected in the high, low and closing prices of a market's chart.