Commentary

  • Rain Likely Washes Away Hopes for Higher Corn and Bean Prices

    June 14 2012 10:52 AM

    Rain in the forecast could wipe out dry conditions and the chance for higher corn and bean prices. With the crops now planted, weather and its impact on the crops development is 90% of the pricing influence for the futures.

  • The Energy Report Thursday June 14, 2012

    June 14 2012 9:15 AM

    As Saudi Arabia worries about losing market share to the shale gas revolution in the United States German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaling that Germany is going to pick up the check for the EU bailout is appealing to the rest of the globe to share the pain and do what they can do to stimulate growth. Such is the drama in the oil patch a day after refiners juiced up runs to the highest level since 2007. Is demand coming back and is the world on the verge of a coordinated intervention ah...

  • The Grain Report - HARD LANDING

    June 12 2012 5:28 PM

    First things first, the USDA monthly crop report came out at 7:30 AM central time during open-market hours. No shockers or surprises. Everything was in line or ranges of guesses. The USDA left corn ending stocks for old crop year delivery before August 31 and new crop your delivery after September 1 unchanged on the month. Old crop year came in at 851 million bushels and new crop year 1.881 billion bushels. The pre-report trade guess had come in looking for a 23 million bushel cut on old crop an...

  • The Energy Report - The One Hundred Billion Euro Bounce

    June 12 2012 9:27 AM

    Spain's banks get cash and oil gets one hundred billion reasons to rally or if you talk in dollars, 125 billion reasons to rally. So much for Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's proclamation that they would not need a bailout. Once again oil is following and the new the economic law of bailouts are bullish is inspiring the oil market. While no one believes that this is the end of the problems for the Spanish banks or the euro zone as a whole, it does give oil a reason to bounce....

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    June 04 2012 10:15 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 10 lower at 151'25 and the 10 Yr. Notes 8 lower at 134'15. Rates continue to make near record lows in the 2.5% area for the 30 Yr. Bond and 1.5% area for the 10 Yr. The market awaits Greek elections mid month and news out of Spain and Italy concerning bank recapitalization. I am still on the sidelines as far as a long term futures position is concerned not willing to fade the fed yet. That being said, I am interested in the short side of the market and am ...

  • Grain Market Comments

    June 01 2012 6:54 PM

    A new month but the same song. We entered with traders debating how much if at all will the USDA crop June 12 lower ending stocks. Demand for corn and beans were erratic with corn starting the month of May, week one, with 1.331 million metric tons old crop sold and 2.140 new crop before scaling back the next several weeks.

  • Weather to be Corn?s Major Forecaster

    May 31 2012 2:26 PM

    Next week's warm and dry weather should boost prices and encourage traders to get re-positioned long just before the June 12 USDA monthly crop report. For the last five months, prices have rallied just before these reports. There's a fear that each month the government will lower ending stocks. With all planting nearly complete, weather will be the primary factor for weekly prices.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's higher, Silver Lower

    May 31 2012 9:34 AM

    Sept. Bonds are currently 11 higher at 149'14 and the Sept. 10 Yr. Notes 4 higher at 133'26.5. The yield on the 10 Yr. Note is now at a nearly 60 year low of 1.612%. A number of reports this morning: GDP came in at up 1.9% vs. average expectations of 2.2%. ADP private sector jobs showed an increase of 133,000 vs expectations of 150,000. Weekly initial jobless claims were up 10,000 vs. expectations of unchanged. I still feel that the Bonds are near or at a bubble and recommend buying out of...

  • The Energy Report - The Pain in Spain

    May 30 2012 1:58 PM

    The pain is Spain drives down the grains. Not to mention oil, gold and silver. A Spanish downgrade and a vote of no confidence by the Belgium National Bank put the market into deflationary mode as the euro sank to a two-year low sending oil to perhaps its biggest monthly loss in almost three years. Eagan-Jones downgraded Spain's debt to bb- from b and left the country on a negative outlook. This comes right after the National Bank of Belgium reduced its exposure to sovereign debt from the eur...

  • Assets Slashed as North America Awaits Data

    May 30 2012 11:40 AM

    With Europe rattling markets and the rush to dollars, traders have dragged down Brent Crude to cap-off what looks to be its worst performance in two years.

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Higher, S&P's Lower, Silver Lower

    May 30 2012 10:28 AM

    June Bonds are currently 1'06 higher at 149'00 and the 10 Yr. Note 15 higher at 133'10. Yields continue to drop in an ongoing flight to quality as China denies reports of a stimulus program and Spain has problems attracting the capital from the international community to recapitalize their banks. As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, I am not able to participate in the market on the long side with yields so low feeling that the surprise will be on the downside. Cons...

  • CTA interview: Crescent Bay Capital Manatement, Inc

    May 29 2012 8:09 PM

    In this issue we talk to David Bedford of Crescent Bay Capital Management, a registered CTA with NFA.

  • S&P 500 Looking Better than Gold

    May 29 2012 6:25 PM

    After over 30-years of observing markets, if there is one thing I am certain of, it is that everything going on in the world naturally, socio-politically, and economically is reflected in the high, low and closing prices of a market's chart.

  • Markets Await Greek Elections

    May 29 2012 6:03 PM

    The tenuous situation in Greece has become a full-fledged national referendum on whether to stay in the euro zone and accept austerity for debt leniency.

  • The Energy Report - Rsks Are Rising

    May 29 2012 10:33 AM

    As oil in recent weeks gave into the weight of overwhelming supply, it now will find support from rising risk. A massacre in Syria and the perception that Iranian nuclear talks will fail has added a risk dynamic that has been absent in recent weeks. Add to that talk China may act to stimulate its slowing economy and the pro-austerity party in Greece is leading in the polls. It seems that recent dramatic drop in oil has come to an end.

  • CTA Interview: Global Ag, LLC

    May 27 2012 12:49 AM

    In this issue we talk to Greg Firtik of Global Ag, LLC, a registered CTA with NFA.

  • The Energy Report - $85 or Bottom!!!!

    May 25 2012 11:56 AM

    Ok, I know it was just two weeks ago when I wrote $100 or go bust and last Friday when I wrote $90 or go bust but now I am saying that crude could be ending its epic slide. That is as long as $85 holds. You see in was just three weeks ago when oil was solidly above $100 a barrel. Many felt that $100 a barrel would hold yet as I wrote on May 4th that The bullish oil price scenarios are giving way to what seems to be ever mounting supply..... so we have growing odds of a continuing price colla...

  • The Grain Report - THOUGHTS ON STOCKS

    May 24 2012 6:56 PM

    Thursday's exports sales report showed 754 t.m.t. of wheat was sold for new crop shipments after June 1 when wheats new marketing year begins. All the key_buyers were countries interested in milling wheat for human consumption and little to no low grade for the feed ration. Our wheat harvest is beginning and since our US wheat is currently the highest quality crop out there we should expect to be the primary port of origin in the world for readily available high quality milling wheat. Wer...

  • The Nemenoff Report Bonds Lower, S&P's higher, Silver Higher

    May 24 2012 10:41 AM

    June Bonds are currently 25 lower at 147'16 and the 10 Yr. Notes 10 lower at 133'15. Yesterday's and today's modest recovery in equities has taken some of the fear premium out of the interest rate markets. Consider going long out of the money puts and/or put spreads for Sept. expiration in either the Bonds or 10 Yr. Notes.

  • The Energy Report - Europe's Lehman Moment

    May 24 2012 10:38 AM

    The way the futures markets have been acting, one might wonder if a Greek exit from the Euro Zone will be Europe's version of the Lehman bankruptcy. When fears run high that Greece may take a hike, the markets go into deflationary mode. So when Germany, the main engine of European growth, disappoints on the business confidence front and fears that China could be dragged into a slowdown as their manufacturing data falls, it is no wonder why the markets are worried about the possibility of a Le...