- Nat Gas starting the trading week on the defensive
April 22 2013 8:39 AM
The spot Nat Gas futures contract started Sunday's trading session around the $4.40/mmbtu technical resistance level only to fail to solidly breach it (so far) for the third trading session in a row. Much as the market did when it was hovering around the then resistance area (now support) at the $4.16/mmbtu level. It took about five attempts spread out over the course of a two week period before the market breached and remained above the $4.16/mmbtu level. Today's failure to get through the $4.40/mmbtu level and move into a declining pattern for the session is somewhat bearish but trading is normally light overnight with a more representative picture coming when the US market open for trading later today.
- Week starting with uncertainty over global economic growth
April 22 2013 8:34 AM
Oil and most risk asset markets struggled last week as the markets were mostly driven by a risk off trading pattern. As discussed in more detail below most of the risk asset markets monitored in the newsletter were lower for the week. Oil has been under pressure from all three major fronts… fundamentals, technicals and global economic outlook. On the fundamental front the markets have been hit with mostly bearish snapshots for the last two weeks.
- Brent Hovers at $100 Ahead of Fresh Economic Data
April 22 2013 8:27 AM
Brent crude oil began the week with little momentum after falling below $100 last week on weak demand growth prospects and poor economic data from some of the commodity's largest consumers. On Monday morning, Brent traded at $100.44 at 10:13 GMT. When Brent prices dipped below the $100 mark, some members of OPEC began to worry because for many nations the budget break even point is $100. Leaders from Iran and Venezuela made comments indicating that the group was considering calling an emergency meeting ahead of its regularly scheduled May 31 summit, but no concrete plans have been made.
- Brent Makes Modest Recovery as OPEC Considers Emergency Meeting
April 19 2013 8:55 AM
After falling from $106 per barrel in just under a week, Brent crude oil made a modest comeback on Friday morning. The commodity traded at 99.58 as it made its way toward the $100 mark at 9:40 GMT on Friday. According to CNBC, the recovery is shaky as many analysts believe the market is simply stabilizing after the massive sell off. Though bargain hunters have been buying the commodity on hopes of improvement in the weeks to come, data from around the globe supports concern about the commodity's demand growth in the future.
- Nat Gas back in higher trading range
April 18 2013 8:40 AM
Nat Gas prices remained firm heading into Thursday,s weekly inventory snapshot. For the second day in a row the spot Nat Gas futures contract has traded and settled above the $4.16/mmbtu support level. At the moment the technicals are suggesting that the market is building momentum for another test of working toward the upper resistance level of around $4.40/mmbtu.
- Selling continues in the oil complex
April 18 2013 8:36 AM
As I warned in yesterday's newsletter the recovery in most risk asset markets has turned out to be a short covering rally in what is looking more and more like a broader based downturn. The oil complex continued to get pummeled with Brent now solidly below the $100/bbl level and the lowest price since the middle of last year. In fact Brent declined more than WTI on Wednesday resulting in the further narrowing of the Brent/WTI spread and now hovering near another key technical support level. The bearishness coming from the European sector and weighing on the Brent market is stronger than the fact that WTI crude oil has now built for the fourth week in a row. The Brent side of the spread is currently the dominant price driver.
- Brent Continues a Week of Losses
April 18 2013 8:29 AM
Brent crude oil continued its downward slide, falling below $98 per barrel for the first time since July. The commodity traded at $97.55 at 5:32 GMT on Thursday morning as worries about global oil demand continued to plague prices. Stunted growth in China kicked off a week of losses for the commodity when data on Monday showed that the world's second largest oil consumer's economic growth undershot original estimates and slowed in the first quarter of 2013.
- What to Expect from Google's Earnings
April 18 2013 8:25 AM
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG [FREE Stock Trend Analysis]) will report earnings on Thursday after the bell with a conference call scheduled for 4:30 pm EST. It’s all about online ad revenue just as it was with Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO). Of particular importance will be ad revenue generated from mobile sites as an increasing number of users ditch their computers and use tablets and smartphones.
- Bargain Hunters Give Brent a Brief Boost
April 17 2013 9:00 AM
Brent crude oil made a modest recovery on Wednesday morning as investors looking for a bargain price bought the commodity at a low. The commodity crept briefly above $100 per barrel, but traded at $99.73 at 8:26 GMT on Wednesday. Brent fell to its lowest price since July on Tuesday and traded at $98, sparking interest for bargain hunters who are expecting to see the commodity rise on hopes that the US Federal Reserve will continue with its monetary stimulus program following recent poor American data.
- Oil remains on the defensive
April 16 2013 5:50 PM
Is the worst of the risk asset selling over or was Tuesday's trading activity just a bit of short covering rally in a broader downtrend that is just getting underway? Tuesday's trading session saw a partial recovery in equity values in selective market like the US with Europe closing lower and Asia getting ready to start a new session. As is normally the case the market sentiment tends to quickly react to changes in the status of the global economy as has been the case for the last several days.
- Nat Gasin new lower trading range
April 16 2013 8:07 AM
The horrific bombing at the finish line of the Boston Marathon sent a wakeup call that the US is far from terrorism free. The threat to the American public is just as prevalent as it was back on 9/11. As of this writing there is no indication of who may have performed this horrible and cowardly act nor has any group taken responsibility. My prayers are with the victims and their families.
- Brent Below $100 On Weak Growth Expectations
April 16 2013 7:56 AM
Brent crude oil fell nearly $3 on Monday to slipped below $100 a barrel after investors pulled out of the commodities market. Brent traded at $99.55 on Tuesday morning at 6:00 GMT after weak data supported concern about diminishing global demand. Data from China showing stunted economic growth in the number two oil consumer was unexpected and rattled markets. Economic growth in the first quarter of 2013 was just 7.7 percent, much lower than the forecast 8 percent and down from 7.9 percent in the final quarter of 2012. The news gave many reason to doubt China's recovery and sparked a sell off within the commodity market.
- China Approves Glencore-Xstrata Acquisition: Report
April 16 2013 7:21 AM
The $33 billion deal would make Glencore the world’s fourth-largest mining company. China had raised concerns over that.
- How a Landslide Shifts Copper Supply
April 15 2013 5:07 PM
The U.S. mining industry was dealt a devastating blow as Kennecott Utah Copper’s Bingham Canyon Mine experienced a pit wall failure causing a massive landslide with rocks and dirt covering the bottom of the mine pit. It’s a miracle no one was hurt due to the vigilance of its owner, Rio Tinto.
- What's Behind All of The Sell-Offs in Commodities?
April 15 2013 5:01 PM
It's always hard to decipher a root cause behind a particular price move in commodities because generally there are multiple contributing factors. However, in the commodities markets over the last two trading days, the price action can mostly be attributed to one key factor. Analysts are pointing to rumors that Cyprus will need to sell its gold as a cause of the sell-off. However, if this were true, why would it affect other commodities like oil? And if it were due to weaker growth projections in the U.S., why have equities held up so well and why didn't gold rally on hopes of more central bank easing?
- Nat Gas prices gaining ground
April 15 2013 9:39 AM
Most risk asset market are starting the week in negative territory after China's latest GDP number for the first quarter came in at 7.7 percent or 0.2 percent below the fourth quarter level. The market was expecting an 8 percent growth rate. China is the main global economic and commodity growth engine of the world. With China looking like it is also entering a slowing pattern demand for energy and most other major commodity markets is likely to falter and thus act as a downside catalyst for prices. With the rest of the world in a mediocre economic pattern falling oil and commodity prices could be a strong positive for the global economy.
- Brent Hits Nine Month Low on Chinese Data
April 15 2013 9:35 AM
Commodities started out the week on a low note after tumbling on Friday in response to weak data from some of the world's largest economies. Brent crude oil hit a new nine month low on Monday morning and traded at $101.46 at 7:12 GMT.
- Oil remains on the defensive
April 12 2013 8:55 AM
With all three forecasting agencies (IEA, EIA and OPEC) painting a weakening picture for global oil demand growth for 2013 coupled with a disappointing weekly oil inventory snapshot this week the oil complex has been moving lower for the last several days. This month all three agencies reduced their growth forecast for oil. This is the third month in a row that the IEA lowered its projection. This has resulted in a bearish view starting to permeate around the market and a realization that slow economic growth in some countries like the US is not enough to result in a strong growth spurt in oil consumption.
- IEA Follows Suit and Lowers Oil Consumption Growth
April 12 2013 8:47 AM
Brent crude oil neared an eight month low on Friday morning as investors worried about global demand growth. The commodity traded at $104.19 at 7:09 GMT and according to CNBC, some analysts are expecting the commodity to continue sliding as low as $103.51.
- Brent Falls After OPEC Cuts Demand Expectations
April 11 2013 8:44 AM
Brent crude oil slid to $105.51 at 6:36 GMT on Thursday morning amid growing concern about global demand caused by higher inventories and reduced global demand forecasts. Following the US Energy Information Administration's revised, lower 2013 oil demand projection earlier in the week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries followed suit and trimmed its forecast for oil demand growth as well.