Commodities

March 05 2013 3:00 PM

The spot futures contract settled above the $3.50/mmbtu resistance level on Monday for the first time since the second half of January. Last time the market settled above the upper range level it remained above resistance (now support) for three trading sessions before falling strongly and moving back inside the range. Thus with a lot less winter left now than the last time it broke out to the upside I would like to see prices remain above the $3.50/mmbtu level for several more days before declaring that the break out is for real this time.

March 05 2013 9:13 AM

Brent crude oil ticked up toward $111 after Chinese officials announced an ambitious growth goal for 2013. The commodity traded at $110.52 at 7:09 GMT on Tuesday morning. According to Reuters, Chinese premier Wen Jiabao said the country would increase fiscal spending in order to match 2012's economic growth of 7.5 percent. Jiabao's statements on Tuesday helped ease worries that followed a disappointing purchasing managers' survey which suggested China's service and manufacturing sectors could be slowing down.

March 04 2013 7:56 AM

Over the past year my long term trends and outlooks have not changed for gold, oil or the SP500. Though there has been a lot of sideways price action to keep everyone one their toes and focused on the short term charts. As we all know if the market does not shake you out, it will wait you out, and sometimes it will do both. So stepping back to review the bigger picture each weeks is crucial in keeping a level trading/investing strategy in motion.

March 01 2013 9:12 AM

Brent crude oil slid lower to $110.36 at 10:49 GMT on Friday morning as markets waited tentatively for $85 billion dollars worth of spending cuts within the US government to kick in. The world's largest economy and number one oil consumer was heading toward large scale spending cuts after Democrats and Republicans in Washington failed to compromise on an alternative plan to reduce the deficit.

February 28 2013 10:31 AM

Brent was poised to post its first monthly loss in four months as it traded at $111.75 on Thursday morning. The commodity slowly climbed toward $112 after a successful Italian bond auction overshadowed political uncertainty in the country. Although deadlocked Italian elections caused most to worry that an unstable government would bring down Italy's attempt to restructure its debt, Wednesday's auction of 5 and 10 year bonds was well received by the markets and calmed fears.

February 27 2013 9:18 AM

Brent crude oil edged up on Wednesday morning and traded at $113.20 at 10:34 GMT. The price increase was attributed largely to US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's reassurance that the Fed was on track with its asset buying stimulus plan. After prices plummeted following the release of minutes from a Fed meeting which indicated that several members were uneasy about continuing with the central bank's economic stimulus plan, Bernanke went on record saying the Fed had no plans to end the program ahead of schedule. His statements eased the markets and provided support for crude oil.

February 26 2013 8:15 AM

Italian elections drove Brent crude oil prices down after the results of the election confirmed fears that political instability in the third largest eurozone economy could be a stumbling block for the region's recovery. Brent traded at $113.73 at 7:00 GMT on Tuesday morning and showed further losses after Monday's news. Pier Luigi Bersani and his center-left coalition narrowly won a majority in the lower house of parliament after the bulk of the votes were counted on Monday afternoon. However, his victory in the upper house was only by one percentage point, which does not give him the majority needed to secure a win. The stalemate shows how divided the nation is over the current austerity measures. Former Prime Minister and candidate Silvio Berlusconi came second to Bersani by promising to undo much of the belt tightening implemented by Mario Monti. Support for Berlusconi's party shows many Italians are fed up with the state of their country, and are looking for a shift away from the eurozone's austerity minded policies.

February 25 2013 9:01 AM

Brent continued to lose ground on Monday morning after Chinese data rattled markets and brought prices down. The commodity traded at $114.18 at 7:52 GMT on Monday. CNBC reported that China's HSBC flash purchasing managers' index fell from last month's reading to 50.4. The lower figure suggested that China's demand growth would slow and future demand worries resurfaced and put pressure on Brent prices.

February 22 2013 9:35 AM

Oil and most risk asset markets were hit with another round of selling on Thursday with oil (except RBOB) remaining near the lower end of its intraday trading range throughout the session. The spot WTI contract is now trading very close to its lowest level of the year while Brent is now within about $3/bbl of its year to date low. The oil complex has been trading ahead of its current fundamentals and the downward correction this week has certainly helped to bring the price of oil more in line with its current fundamentals. Total oil stocks in the US remain well above both last year and the five year average for the same week (see a more detailed discussion in inventories below). Yesterday's EIA oil inventory report was mixed... bearish for crude oil but supportive for refined products...and thus the crack spreads.