Fundamental Analysis

  • AUD/USD Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 24 2012 3:39 AM

    The AUD/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for AUD/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. AUD/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • USD/CHF Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 24 2012 3:30 AM

    The USD/CHF fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for USD/CHF. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The USD/CHF economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • EUR/JPY Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 24 2012 3:26 AM

    The EUR/JPY fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for EUR/JPY. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • GBP/JPY Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 24 2012 3:21 AM

    The GBP/JPY fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for GBP/JPY. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The GBP/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • AUD/JPY Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 24 2012 3:17 AM

    The AUD/JPY fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for AUD/JPY. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The AUD/JPY economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    December 21 2012 1:44 PM

    USD traded higher against the majors as concerns US budget negotiations will not land an agreement by the New Year. EUR weakened against the USD as fiscal cliff concerns had risk averse investors fleeing to safer assets. Commodity currencies dropped significantly as gold prices edged higher and riskier assets took dipped lower.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    December 20 2012 3:09 PM

    USD traded lower against the majors as US GDP data reported better-than-expected results for third quarter. EUR gained against the USD as Eurozone consumer confidence edged higher. JPY traded flat but within ranges of 20-month lows against the USD after the BoJ set a 1% inflation target on monetary stimulus.

  • Weekly Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and RMBWeekly Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and RMB

    December 10 2012 4:29 PM

    The dollar begins the week mixed against its major counterparts with no major economic US data to provide direction. Investors are still encouraged by last Friday’s surprisingly upbeat nonfarm payrolls and unemployment reports and are hopeful that Democrats and Republicans are close to finding common ground in the ongoing fiscal debate. Despite the lack of bipartisan consensus thus far, market participants are generally attracted to the relative stability and outperformance of the US economy.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    December 07 2012 1:39 PM

    The dollar extended its recent gains against many of its peers this morning as investors focus on the continued general outperformance of the US economy. Despite several weak successive readings of jobless claims following Hurricane Sandy, nonfarm payrolls came in nearly twice as high as expected at 146K versus 85K that was anticipated. The surprising reading was led by a sharp jump in private payrolls as companies appear to be less concerned with the possible prohibitive effects of the so-called fiscal cliff than previously thought. However, experts generally estimate that the economy needs to add 150K jobs each month just to keep pace with population growth and demographic changes. The November report gets a bit of a pass considering all the disruptive effects during the month, but future reports will have to show larger gains to markedly improve the overall outlook for the labor market.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    December 04 2012 1:18 PM

    The dollar is generally weaker this morning, but its ranges against its major counterparts are becoming increasingly narrow. With no major economic data released today, investors are again focused on Washington’s ongoing fiscal debate. The Obama Administration lobbied for $1.6T in new taxes, amongst other things, late last week, which was promptly dismissed by Republican leadership. The GOP have since issued a counter-proposal that includes tax reforms, further cuts to Medicare and other spending reductions worth $2.2T over the next ten years. The plan was quickly shot down by the White House. However, there are certain cuts that both parties can agree on, such as direct payment subsidies to farmers covering a select few crops – a holdover measure from the days of the Great Depression. The cut would save the government an estimated $46B over the next decade. A hike in the gas tax is also garnering bipartisan consideration with the government currently plugging a $50B/year shortfall with direct subsidies to states to build and repair infrastructure. Investors will be paying close attention when President Obama addresses the media later this morning. In the meantime, the dollar has extended its slow decline against most of its peers.

  • Weekly Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and RMB

    December 03 2012 1:46 PM

    The dollar begins the week mixed against its major counterparts after a disappointing reading of ISM manufacturing sets the tone for the week ahead. The measure fell short of expectations, coming in at 49.5 versus the 51.4 that was anticipated. The reading marks the first contraction in more than three years as orders extended a recent slide and exports slowed. After leading the economic recovery for much of the past three years, manufacturing has fallen off significantly as disturbances from bad weather this fall are only compounding the drop off in overseas demand for American made goods.

  • EUR/USD Fundamental Outlook @ ForexAbode Analysis

    December 02 2012 4:31 PM

    The EUR/USD fundamental outlook is updated weekly and is one of the base of the weekly analysis/forecast for EUR/USD. This is mainly derived from the recent major economic releases and news. The EUR/USD economic strength meter at the bottom shows the relative strengths or weakness of the currencies depending on the recent economic releases/news.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 30 2012 3:34 PM

    The dollar looks set to end an otherwise listless week back towards the lower end of its ever-narrowing ranges. Similarly, stock and commodity markets lack direction as politicians remain in a heated deadlock on Capitol Hill over the so-called “fiscal cliff.” In the most recent flare up after two weeks of closed-door negotiations, Republican leaders are fuming this morning after Treasury Secretary Geithner and White House Director of Legislative Affairs Rob Nabors presented details on the Obama Administrations latest proposal to move discussion forward. They proposed $1.6T in new taxes including a raise on households making more than $250K/year, closing loopholes, limiting deductions and raising the estate, capital gains and dividend taxes.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 29 2012 1:41 PM

    The dollar is again mixed this morning as signs of progress on Capitol Hill and a modest improvement in US economic data has provided support for the risk-on trade. President Obama told reporters yesterday that the two parties can agree on a framework for a budget deal that will prevent $607B in automatic tax increases and spending cuts, but the details of tax code reform remains a point of contention for House Republicans. Speaker of the House Boehner is willing to capitulate on tax increases, but not without drastic changes to the current tax code, with a cap on deductions the most likely compromise.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 28 2012 12:31 PM

    The dollar has given back overnight gains against many of its major counterparts, as stocks and commodity markets reverse early losses. Investors remain concerned with the political gridlock on Capitol Hill, but still remain generally upbeat that a deal will ultimately be reached. The economic schedule was rather light today in the US with new home sales registering in line with last month at 368K, but short of the expected gain to 390K.

  • London Session: A downbeat session as fiscal fears start to bite

    November 28 2012 8:46 AM

    We mentioned yesterday that now that Greece has its bailout money and Spain is fully funded for this year the focus could shift to the US and the fiscal cliff. Indeed it did. After some positive comments in recent weeks that Republicans and Democrats may compromise and reach a deal in good time, we received some negative headlines from Capitol Hill yesterday. US Senate Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, said that little progress has been made on reaching a deal. This triggered a sell off in NYC hours, which, in the absence of other market drivers, continues to sour sentiment during the London session.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 27 2012 1:14 PM

    The dollar is higher this morning against many of its major counterparts as investor risk appetite wanes. Encouraging gains seen in several key economic releases are having a limited impact this morning as investors remain focused on the impending “fiscal cliff.” Little is known about the progress lawmakers may be making with negotiation sessions being held behind closed doors. Lobbyist and special interest groups are clamoring for the extension of key tax deductions including those related to home mortgages as both Democrats and Republicans search for new government revenue opportunities.

  • Weekly Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and RMB

    November 26 2012 1:54 PM

    The dollar opens the week towards the lower end of its recent ranges as investors’ collective attention turns to the looming “fiscal cliff” as lawmakers get back to work after the Thanksgiving holiday. In the most recent White House‐sanctioned report aimed at bringing Congressional Republicans to the table, a failure to avert an automatic hike in taxes on the middle class will likely weigh heavily on consumer spending and shave 1.4% off of GDP in 2013. With the December 31st deadline fast approaching, negotiations will likely intensify, garnering increased international attention. The effects are mixed on the dollar with the tension providing support for the greenback in its role as a “safe haven” asset, but undermining the relative attraction of the US economy’s general outperformance.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 21 2012 1:45 PM

    The dollar is mixed this morning with liquidity quickly thinning out ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday in the US. Notable gains have been posted against many of its higher-yielding commodity linked counterparts as global economic growth remains a cause for concern. Investors were met with mixed economic data this morning with a measure of consumer confidence falling while jobless claims and leading indicators both improved. The improved labor picture is most notable, but not unexpected, as the jobs market recovers in the wake of Hurricane Sandy’s disruption along the East coast. Claims came in at 410K down from 451K last week. Leading indicators also improved, gaining by 0.2% vs. the 0.1% rise in the previous reading as investors feel a bit better about lawmakers taking the necessary steps to avoid the so-called “fiscal cliff.” While the dollar traded through a particularly choppy overnight session, expect calmer trading ahead as participants get an early start on the holiday.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZDDaily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    November 20 2012 1:17 PM

    The dollar consolidated within its recent ranges overnight as markets turn choppy ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday this Thursday. Investors remain encouraged by yesterday’s comments from the Obama administration and congressional leaders that they are confident a deal on the so-called “fiscal cliff” will be reached before the December 31st deadline. However, actions speak louder than words in this case with little concrete progress leaving investors largely in a wait-and-see mode today. Data has been supportive with both housing starts and building permits coming in better than expected at 894K and 866K respectively, but the uptick may prove temporary with the possible elimination of several key tax deductions being floated on Capitol Hill. Nevertheless, housing starts reached a four-year best in October, suggesting that the housing recovery is gaining steam. Investors will be paying close attention to Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech before the Economic Club of NY due later this afternoon, with particular interest in possible guidance on future monetary policy and the Fed’s view on the fiscal cliff.