Fundamental Analysis

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    October 19 2012 1:54 PM

    The dollar is headed into the weekend higher against the majority of its counterparts as the risk on trade from earlier in the week quickly fades. US stock markets are lower as quarterly revenues at companies from Microsoft to McDonald’s fall short of expectations. Meanwhile, investors are again concerned with Europe as leaders failed to address the pressing issues in Spain. Consequently, the dollar is well supported in its role as the default “safe-haven” asset with the general outperformance of the US economy providing further impetus for holding dollars.

  • EUR/JPY Threatens a Falling Wedge that Started From 2010

    October 18 2012 8:53 AM

    Sharp rally: The EUR/JPY is making a new high since rallying from the July low of 94.10, as it pushes above the 103.86 resistance pivot. The rally has been holding above a rising trendline, and the RSI has tagged 70, now a 3rd time, without falling under 40, and even staying above 50. This strong rally has a recent 6-day streak that is now attacking a falling trendline that goes back to April, 2011 as it approaches the 104.00 psychological handle.

  • UFXMarkets *Daily Forex Currency Trading News*17-October-2012

    October 17 2012 11:04 AM

    The Dollar weakened versus most majors as investors turn towards riskier asset

  • London Session: The markets breathe a sigh of relief after Spain’s near miss with junk status

    October 17 2012 5:10 AM

    Despite elevated levels of event risk this week and some mixed economic data the euro continues its march higher as the markets focus squarely on Spain. A weak-ish German ZEW survey that points to German growth slowing from 1% in Q2 to approx. 0% in Q3 is like water off a duck’s back, the jump higher to 1.31 was fuelled by Moody’s, the credit rating agency, who affirmed Spain’s credit rating at Baa3 with a negative outlook. The markets had expected a downgrade to junk status so the 50 pip jump in EURUSD is a relief rally. 1.3175 – the high from last month – is now key resistance.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD, CAD and NZD

    October 16 2012 12:29 PM

    The dollar is mixed this morning as it loses some of its “safe-haven” appeal on positive developments in the Eurozone and stronger than expected domestic production data. Industrial production posted a 0.4% gain in September, better than the 0.2% that was expected. While the figure is an encouraging sign for manufacturing, mining and utilities, today’s gains only partially reversed the 1.4% decline that was recorded in August. Nevertheless, the improving numbers likely reflect a stabilizing economy, and are supportive of faster economic growth this quarter and next. Meanwhile, consumer prices gained by 0.6% for a second straight month, led higher by rising fuel costs.

  • Currency News EUR-USD, GBP-USD, USD-CHF, USD-JPY, AUD-USD, USD-CAD

    October 15 2012 6:54 PM

    US Dollar drifts, quiet trade. The Dollar Index holds drifts near 79.70 during yet another quiet session. Overnight buying ran the index to a high of 79.95, but buyers were unable to recapture the key 80.00 level as sellers emerged at resistance.

  • UFXMarkets *Daily Forex Currency Trading News*15-October-2012

    October 15 2012 2:16 PM

    The Dollar weakened slightly versus most majors on Friday as speculation about

  • Weekly Summary on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD and RMB

    October 15 2012 1:38 PM

  • London Session: Trepidation comes back to the markets

    September 18 2012 8:28 AM

    Risk is once again off today as the dollar continues to find buying interest. This is the third day in a row that the dollar has risen -so is this a trend and has the QE3/ Draghi OMT boost to the markets already lost steam? We are unsure at this stage, although we believe that dollar gains will be limited by the prospect of more QE from the Fed (especially if the labour market doesn't start to pick up). However, the success, or not, of the ECB's OMT programme all depends on Spain requestin...

  • US Jobless Rate is really 16%, not 8.1%

    September 17 2012 3:02 PM

    The US unemployment rate of 8.1% is probably double that number when you include a all of the other measures of the jobless rate that are not included in the official data. The state of the US labor market is in focus because the US Federal Reserve said last week that until there are significant improvements in the sector, the central bank would continue to buy mortgage and other assets in order to revive economic growth.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD and RMB

    September 17 2012 2:00 PM

    The dollar this morning, with the dollar index remaining below the key 80.0 level for a fifth?straight day. While stocks and commodities have begun the week in the red as investors remain skeptical about the health of the US economic recovery, the Fed's plan to buy mortgage?backed securities and far?dated Treasuries is sapping demand for the dollar's relative safety. However, the initial negative impact of QE3 on the dollar may be already be lessening as the ongoing debt crisis in Europe ...

  • London Session: Do rising Spanish bond yields threaten EURUSD?

    September 17 2012 10:25 AM

    The markets are trading with a risk off tone at the start of the week. There are a couple of reasons for this: 1, the extent of the moves last week may justify a pullback at this stage, 2, the focus turns back to growth as we await a plethora of economic data due in the coming days and 3, problems with Spain.

  • Operation Screw

    September 14 2012 3:40 PM

    With yesterday's Fed decision and press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke finally and decisively laid his cards on the table. And confirming what I have been saying for many years, all he was holding was more of the same snake oil and bluster. Going further than he has ever gone before, he made it clear that he will be permanently binding the American economy to a losing strategy. As a result, September 13, 2012 may one day be regarded as the day America finally threw in the economic towel.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and CAD

    September 14 2012 1:03 PM

    The dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts other than the JPY a day after the Fed announced the surprising start of QE3. Despite the relative outperformance of the US economy, Bernanke and the other Fed policymakers were clearly fed up with the painfully slow pace of recovery and persistently high unemployment. Unlike the first two bouts of quantitative easing, QE3 has no set end date. Rather, the plan is for the Fed to buy up to $40B in mortgage backed securities and Treasury bo...

  • The Week Ahead: Central Banks to the rescue

    September 14 2012 1:01 PM

    QE3 and its impact on the dollar - The ECB as the Svengali of the markets - The yen falls sharply post the Fed

  • Peter Schiff - Operation Screw: The Fed goes all-in on QE

    September 14 2012 8:38 AM

    The geniuses at the Federal Reserve have concocted a bold new plan to revive the U.S. economy -- print a bunch of money, loan it to Americans at super low interest rates so they can speculate on rising real estate prices, extract the appreciated equity and spend it on consumer goods. In other words, build an economy of real estate, by real estate, and for real estate. The only problem is we've been there and done that. The last time it almost destroyed the U.S.economy. I guess almost isn't...

  • World Drunk with Cash

    September 14 2012 5:16 AM

    Markets around the world over react to The Fed stimulus plans ignoring slowing growth, high unemployment and the possible inflationary effects of a new round of free money. The U.S. budget deficit rose $191-B in August to $1.164-T.

  • USD Slides as Fed Begin Money Printing

    September 14 2012 3:48 AM

    The Federal Reserve's announcement of a new money printing program and pledge of low rates until mid-2015 sent the dollar falling Thursday against major currencies. Economist Shayne Heffernan said today the Euro, USD and GBP are in a race to the bottom.

  • Daily Summary on USD, EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD, CAD and MXN

    September 13 2012 2:23 PM

    The USD consolidated in its new lower ranges this morning ahead of today's heavily anticipated Fed announcement. Policymakers are still squarely focused on the lagging jobs market and hope that further central bank asset purchases will provide a much-needed boost in lending at both the corporate and consumer level. However, the potency of a third round of so-called quantitative easing would likely be significantly muted with bond yields already near all-time lows. What QE3 will do is foster i...

  • Fundamental Update: Initial thoughts on the FOMC decision

    September 13 2012 2:20 PM

    Financial markets can't seem to decide if this evening's Fed announcement is good or bad news for financial markets. Here is what the Fed has decided to do: 1, QE3: this will entail purchases of $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities each month - these purchases are unlimited and will depend on future labour market data. 2, The pledge to keep interest rates at 0-0.25% has been extended to 2015. 3, There will be more Operation Twist, focusing on extending the banks' ownership of long-...