Gold

March 04 2013 10:25 AM

Concerns about the global economy and the outlook for riskier assets have led to renewed physical buying interest in Asia, particularly in China. The increasingly popular gold forward contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange stood at 320 yuan a gram by 0741 GMT according to Reuters, or $1,600/oz. This is a healthy premium of about $23 to spot gold.

March 01 2013 10:54 AM

Since equities had reached bottom in June 2012, major indices have rallied 21% to today, compared to -1% for gold bullion and -20% for the Gold Bugs index – An index of the 16 most popular gold mining companies. The Gold Bugs index has fallen 31% from its September high, while the yellow metal dropped 13% from its October high. A similar 2.5-1 disparity in GoldBugs-Bullion Sell-off was seen during the 2008 crisis, when bullion fell 33% from its 2008 peak to its 2008 trough, while Gold Bugs fell 71% during the same period.

March 01 2013 8:16 AM

As the gold mining sector plunges to the end of a cyclical bear market, one wonders if this ongoing selling climax will precipitate a catalyst for more mergers and acquisitions in the industry. The last 12 years tells us that these transactions tend to follow the market itself but with a lag. Peaks in M&A activity (in global mining) in terms of number of transactions and value occurred in 2006-2007 and 2010-2011 while troughs occurred in 2002 and 2008-2009. According to Ernst & Young, 2012 had the lowest number of global mining deals since 2008 and the lowest in terms of value since 2009. On a smaller microeconomic level, the current depths of the junior mining industry and low share prices across the board should provide a catalyst for more deal flow. Going forward I believe we will see industry consolidation but in two separate different phases which will produce different winners.

February 28 2013 9:51 AM

Spot Gold has fallen back as predicted to hit the 1588/87 target. We stated that we are unlikely to fall any further for this correction & so far we are holding above this support. We now look for a move back up to 1595 and then 1603/04. A push through 1609 then target the week’s high at 1619/20 then Fibonacci resistance at 1625 is expected to trigger profit taking once again. If however we break below 1584 we could test the next support at 1580/79. If this does not hold look for 1570/69.

February 26 2013 8:38 AM

“Fair, balanced and unafraid.” That is the mantra of Brett Baier as he ends his daily broadcast of the Special Report (@SpecialReport) on the Fox News Channel. It got me thinking. It’s no secret that I believe every saver and investor should own some gold. Diversification is the key – don’t keep all your eggs in one basket – spread the risk – blah blah blah!

February 25 2013 5:31 PM

When investing in gold, I often say diverse opinions promote critical thinking and a healthy market. I believe elevated groups of buyers and sellers create a competitive tug-of-war in the bid and ask price of the precious metal. Last week, we saw the gold bears growling louder and gaining strength, as the world’s largest gold-backed ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust, experienced its largest one-day outflows since August 2011. The Fear Trade fled the sector following the Federal Reserve’s meeting that revealed a growing dissension among some of its members over the central bank’s bond-buying program.

February 25 2013 9:29 AM

Gold climbed in Asia, pulled back and then continued higher in Europe. Investors remain wary over the Italian election result and the risk of contagion to the monetary union. Exit polls will be published around 1400 GMT. What will it mean for the euro remains to be seen, but gold bullion stayed above the 7 month low hit last week.

February 22 2013 3:16 PM

Over the past 5 calendar years we have seen GOLD either complete an intermediate cyclical top or bottom in each February. My forecast was for February of 2013 to be no different and for Gold and Silver to make trough lows this month. With that said, I did not expect the drop in GOLD to go much below $1,620 per ounce at worst, but in fact it has. Where does that leave us now on the technical patterns and crowd behavioral views?

February 22 2013 8:39 AM

Spot Gold did make low for the correction as hoped & bounced back to 1585 as predicted. This is proving a struggle to overcome as we had expected but a push higher should happen today to target 1604/05, possibly as far as 1611/12 but this should be the top at this stage. Any sell off is unlikely to see us fall as far as 1555 now. If we do test this level it should be a very good buying opportunity but we will need to keep stops tight below here as a break could see 1548/46. If this support breaks there really is very little to stop a move towards 1533 with 1531/27 the next area of support. This area is the low for 2012 and as such should be a welcome buying opportunity.