Markets are quietly staying in tight range today. Asian stocks were mixed with little reaction to Friday's job data from US. Crude oil is staying in tight range above 72 level which gold is hovering around 1210. Dollar index also consolidates between 84 and 85. SNB President Hildebrand said that the bank is closely monitoring Swiss Franc's development as currency fluctuations of the Swiss franc have indeed picked up in the last weeks. Hildebrand also noted again that at the moment, I see extremely low inflation risks in Switzerland. Trading activities will possibly continue to remain subdued with US markets on holiday today.
European data are the main focus today. Swiss Retail sales is expected to rise 2.7% yoy in May. Eurozone PMI services is expected to be finalized at 55.4 in June. Sentix investor confidence is expected to be unchanged at -4.1 in July. Eurozone retail sales are expected to rise 0.5% mom, drop -0.2% yoy in May. UK PMI services is expected to drop to 55 in July.
As noted before, GBP/CHF's current fall from 1.7073 is viewed as resumption of whole decline from 1.8111 and should extend beyond 1.5825 support. Looking at the bigger picture. Last recovery failed to take out 55 week EMA and 55 weeks MACD is kept negative. Both suggests that down trend in the cross is not over. The choppy structure of the fall from 1.8111 is not supporting another sharp fall yet. But a retest of 1.5111 low in medium term is highly likely.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0562; (P) 1.0615; (R1) 1.0674; More.
Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidations from 1.0673 continues. Deeper treat cannot be ruled out but downside should be contained by 1.0319/0468 support zone and bring rally resumption. Break of 1.0678 resistance will confirm our view that corrective fall from 1.0851 has completed at 1.0138 already and should target another high above 1.0851.
In the bigger picture, the three wave structure of the fall from 1.0851 to 1.0138 suggests that it's corrective in nature and revives the case that whole rebound from 0.9929 is not completed. Break of 1.0678 will affirm this bullish case and target 1.0851 and then 38.2% retracement of 1.3063 to 0.9929 at 1.1126 first, with prospect of extending further to 61.8% retracement at 1.1866 and above. However, note again that break of 1.0138 support will shift favor back to the case that 0.9929 is not the bottom yet. Though, considering bullish convergence conditions in daily and weekly MACD, we believe that medium term decline from 1.3063 is going to reverse soon, probably after a brief break of 0.9929 low. Hence, focus will be on reversal signal even in case of another fall.