Yen is bid up in European session today as risk aversion seems to be back in the driving seat. Moody's Investor Services said that sovereign rating of US and UK may test the boundaries of the Aaa status because of deteriorating public finances. Both US and UK fall in the resilient category, comparing to resistant top ratings of Canada, Germany and France. In the report, Moody's said that vulnerable countries' finances face big challenges and seem stretched beyond the point of 'no return' to the Aaa category. Yen is also lifted by concern in the Japanese economy after the Japanese government announced a 7.2T JPY economic stimulus package just a week after BoJ released a 10T JPY credit program. The government emphasized the need to make economy recovery solid in face of severe economic and employment situation, the yen's rise and deflation.
Sterling continues to be the worst performer today, weighed down by worst than expectation production data. Industrial production and manufacturing production were both flat mom in October versus expectations of 0.5% and 0.4% rise respectively. Investors remain in deep concern over UK's fiscal health right ahead of tomorrow's pre-budget release. UK Chancellor Darling said the country can manage the current level of borrowing and there is no need for a determined effort to get the debts down. He said he'd rather be found guilty of removing the support slightly too late than slightly too early. If remains doubtful on how Darling could reduce the GBP 175b budget deficit, given that UK is the only G10 country that's still in technical recession would probably requires more stimulus from the government. Other data from UK saw CBI industrial trends orders improved slightly to -42 in December. BRC retail sales rose 1.9% in November.
Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 0.25% as widely expected and reiterated the conditional commitment to hold rates unchanged till Q2 of 2010. In the accompanying statement, BoC said that economic developments has be slightly more positive relative to the October MPR. Growth in Canada is expected to become more solidly entrenched over the projection period and inflation will return to 2% target in H2 of 2011. Also, the bank restated that the persistent strength in Canadian dollar could act as a significant further drag on growth and put additional downward pressure on inflation. USD/CAD is a touch higher on broad based strength of dollar.
Other data released today saw Canadian housing starts rose slightly to 159k in November. German industrial production unexpectedly dropped -1.8% mom in October. Japan leading indicator rose slightly to 89.7 in October. Eco watcher surveys deteriorated to 33.9 in November. Current account surplus came in at 1.38T JPY in October. Australia current account deficit widened to AUD -16.2B in Q3. NAB business confidence rose from 16 to 19 in November.
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0139; (P) 1.0192; (R1) 1.0247; More
USD/CHF's rally extends further to as high as 1.0265 so far today and intraday bias remains on the upside for 1.0337 resistance. As noted before, break there will confirm that USD/CHF has bottomed out in medium term. In such case, next short term target will be 161.8% projection of 0.9916 to 1.0175 from 0.9959 at 1.0378 as the impulsive rally from 0.9916 unfolds. on the downside, below 1.0164 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But after all, downside should be contained well above 0.9959 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, we continue to prefer the case that whole medium term fall from 1.1963 has completed at 0.9916 already. Focus now turns to 1.0337 resistance and break there will confirm this case and bring stronger rise towards 1.0590 support turned resistance next. Also, note that this will also argue that whole three wave consolidation from 1.2296 has completed too and a break above 1.0590 will target trend line resistance at 1.1147 for confirmation. On the downside, however, a break below 0.9959 support will dampen this bullish view and suggests that another low below 0.9916 would be seen before USD/CHF bottoms.