‘Risk is the only thing you can determine.” — Luis Lorenzo

Hello:

This is an update of the major movements on the markets and what I’m doing about them on weekly basis; plus my losses and profits. I trade 10 pairs. These analyses are based on hourly charts. The only thing you have control over is the amount you want to risk in case the market goes against you. You can never force the market to move in your direction. If your entry rules are met, enter your order. Once you enter a trade, stick to your plans no matter what happens. Remain unemotional, while the market plays itself out.

If you combine too many indicators on a chart, for example, Fibonacci levels, pivot points, parabolic SAR, MACD, ADX, Bollinger bands and envelopes, plus some other customized indicators, and chart patterns. What you’ll get is ‘analysis paralysis.’ You’ll always miss great moves, and your army of indicators won’t even prevent you from losses. Each indicator is programmed to generate signals based on variable parameters. Really, every indicator has only around 50% winning probability in the long run; and the combination of several of them doesn’t improve this probabilistic phenomenon. There’s no perfect indicator. You might want to clean up your chart and make life easier for yourself. According to Sam Seiden, the markets basically are pretty simple. In the end, they are determined by bid and ask.

USDJPY

Trend: bearish

The overall trend is bearish. However, this pair is now engaged in some bullish correction. If it’s sustained, it could be a bullish ride – otherwise I’d sell short as soon as the price attempts to go downwards from an overbought region.

EURUSD

Trend: Bearish

After a serious bearish dive on Tuesday, this pair is attempting to go up. I currently have a sell order

Order: Sell

Entry price: 1.22846

Stop loss: 1.23615

Take profit: 1.20515

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, 10 pips

GBPUSD

Trend: Bearish

There’s also a slight bullish correction in the context of a downtrend. I’m selling right now. Trading this is as hard as the battle of Iwo Jima – the only difference being that what we put at risk are shirts and socks, not lives.

Order: Sell

Entry price: 1.43703

Stop loss: 1.44468

Take profit: 1.41368

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, 8 pips

USDCAD

Trend: Bullish

I’ve gone long on this pair. Trading is all about matching weak currencies against strong currencies.

Order: Buy

Entry price: 1.07215

Stop loss: 1.06448

Take profit: 1.09548

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, 9 pips

AUDUSD

Trend: Bearish

This pair looks very sexy on my chart (though it may sometimes look like an ugly heifer). Its pullback may bring about a nice selling order.

EURGBP

Trend: Possible bullish momentum

I’m on a buy order. The order is still a winner presumptive, only time will tell if it could turn into a winner apparent.

Order: Buy

Entry price: 0.85720

Stop loss: 0.84953

Take profit: 0.88053

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, -30 pips

EURAUD

Trend: Slightly bullish

My stop was hit as soon as I entered a sell order. One superstitious beginner told me he suspected a sorcerer in his father’s household, otherwise all new orders wouldn’t be turning against him. It seemed someone was turning all his trades against him. He was misguided. You see, we want everything to go positive as soon as we place a trade. Some would; some wouldn’t, and it’ll always be like that.

Order: Buy

Entry price: 1.50806

Stop loss: 1.50023

Take profit: 1.53123

Trailing stop: N/A

Exit at: 1.50023

Status: Closed, -75 pips

EURNZD

Trend: Bullish

The same thing that happened to me on EURAUD happened to me on this pair. The superstitious beginner mentioned above once believed his prayers could turn the markets in his favor, or at least make him enter the right directions. I’ve seen people blowing accounts despite these hidden thoughts. Illusions are very pleasant, aren’t they? If I pray for EURUSD to go up, what would happen if others were praying for its bearish trend to continue? It took me a long time to remove this irrelevant myth from my beloved trainee’s head. These are global markets, and the man has accepted realities through experience.

Order: Buy

Entry price: 1.85154

Stop loss: 1.84307

Take profit: 1.87407

Trailing stop: N/A

Exit at: 1.85154

Status: Closed, -75 pips

NZDUSD

Trend: Bearish

This pair’s movement looks nice to me as well. I enter a sell signal after a nice journey upwards, followed by a downward move in the context of a downtrend.

Order: Sell

Entry price: 0.66585

Stop loss: 0.67318

Take profit: 0.64233

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, 2 pips

EURJPY

Trend: Bearish

I missed the strong downward move on Tuesday, but I’m now on a sell trade. I wonder what would happen to my socks if I decided to bet against my fellow traders on the outcome of this trade as soon as I enter. But I don’t bet! For now, I’ll just listen to, and enjoy that old Madonna’s track, La Isla Bonita.

Order: Sell

Entry price: 110.772

Stop loss: 111.552

Take profit: 108.452

Trailing stop: Not yet

Status: Open, -1 pips

Conclusion: I try to make trading as much fun as possible. I’m still in the game, and as you can see my comments above, there are still opportunities ahead of me. It’s when I send the weekly report that you can conclude on what this week would have brought. I’m very happy that I find it easier to follow my rules. I’m totally in control when it comes to how much I’m willing to lose on a trade. You must have confidence in your trading system(s), you need to trust your trade, if you know you’ll always win in the long run. The problem with us is that most analysts show us only winning trades in their examples. Thus majority of the traders I know hide their trading results, and speak only about what they can do. The reality is totally different from this – and traders know that.

I wish you the best in everything you do. Let me conclude with this anonymous quote:

“The human brain is the most marvelous object in the universe”

Your questions and opinions are highly welcome.

Thank you.

With best regards,

Azeez Mustapha

Forex Signals Strategist, Funds Manager &Coach

Email: amustapha@fxinstructor.com

NB: There is risk of loss in trading, but it is possible to be a successful trader.

Related Posts:

  • Mid-week Markets Update (May 12, 2010)
  • Mid-week Markets Update (May 5, 2010)
  • Mid-week Markets Update (May 19, 2010)
  • Weekly Trade Report ((May 17 – 21, 2010)
  • How I Apply Risk Management
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