Major Pairs: This is about as mixed a picture as we have seen on the major pairs since May 21 09. They are going through a technical swing point phase of trade, and now looking for a fundamental driver to confirm where they now go. The worst case scenario right now is that the oil and equity markets move sideways for a while, because that will create avoid that these pairs will be caught in, bouncing around the daily chart Simple Moving Average areas.
Global Dollar Drivers: Long trends, neutral momentum, equals possible swing point on the Usd drivers. Looking now for the economic calendar to kick in and lead things fundamentally. If oil and equities move lower from here, the Usd goes higher.
Timing The Trade: The opening and closing of the three global commercial markets will be critical in trading forex through August, and probably will be far more important to gauge order flows than at any other time of year. The European markets are on their extended summer holiday breaks, and as such order flows are going to be sporadic, although possibly not thin. Automated trade has its place right now, and we will be looking to bank near-term targets as our August goal.
Cable Review: There is one report that is issued by the Bank of England that tends to get in under the radar of traders, until that is the impact starts to be felt of what the BoE see as the economic outlook for the U.K.. The Wednesday read is something that is backed by the Governor's speech explaining the detail, and has as much potential valuation impact as any release that comes from the U.K. in the form of a quarterly report. The fact that the BoE have increased their asset purchase program, in an attempt to increase available commercial liquidity and to address a reduction the economic outlook that became apparent last week, questions the value of $1.6700 per pound.
Robust Aussie: The Australian economy is looking robust when compared to the other global market outlooks. However, the pair is still struggling to justify $0.84 without official growth numbers that confirm the RBA's jawboning. It is time to show the hand that the RBA is holding, or fold it; either will do. Australia reports business and consumer sentiment this week, as well as consumer price inflation, housing finance, and the quarterly labor cost index.
Higher Cad: A strong C$ is not what most Bank of Canada members would want to see right now. The BoC may now be looking at a Canadian dollar valuation that will impede the ability to show economic growth going into 2010. The region relies on global exports, and with Usd/Cad at 1.0650 levels, those exports have become a lot more expensive than they were just one month ago. A technical and fundamental reversal higher is overdue; however, it has remained overdue for quite a while.