Not surprisingly August Crude oil has managed a slight recovery bounce in the early US Friday trade. However, overall macro economic views have not improved. In fact, macro economic sentiment probably continued to decay overnight in the face of a softer than expected German Ifo reading and from residual anxiety over the bank downgrade yesterday. While crude oil has certainly seen an aggressive liquidation from the March highs ($34.50 a barrel) the last COT positioning report in crude oil still had the non-commercial and non-reportable net long position at a lofty 213,914 contracts! However, the markets yesterday were seemingly into a full blown washout which suggests the pricing in of even slower activity and even softer demand ahead. While increased tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico might be providing support to prices this morning, that story might simply be an excuse for needed technical short covering. In other words, the overall global economic view has remained sour and energy demand views will probably continue to weigh on prices. However, the IEA overnight suggested that oil prices might not remain weak, as demand might be sufficient to stem the slide. Some players might be inclined to bank profits on short side plays, as there is a strong potential for a tropical depression to become a hurricane over the weekend.
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