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Compiled 10/09/12 6:00 AM (CT)
Statistics: London Gold Fix $1,770.75 +$1.75 LME Copper Stocks 221,050 tons -1,625 tons
GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) At least to start today, the bear camp might feel like they have a slight edge today as the IMF has floated some negative views toward the global economy that in turn has tamped by potentially positive PBOC news flow. Adding into the bear's early edge is negative currency market action, weaker US equities and little in the way of fresh supply side threats from South African mining companies. Fortunately for the bull camp, Alcoa won't report its earnings until after the close today, as expectations call for flat to weaker earnings from that key bellwether issue.
One might have expected gold to have benefited somewhat more overnight from hints of more PBOC liquidity, but the markets simply weren't playing up that news overnight. While gold hasn't paid that much attention to minor supply side developments lately, news of a minor gold find and some evidence of minor production gains by smaller mining entities probably won't have much of an impact on gold prices this morning.
The bear camp might view the slide back below the $1,775 level, as a negative development, but the prior session's low might be seen as a more important pivot point down at $1,768.20. Given the lack of top tier economic releases from the US today and the fact that dialogue from the ECB is already flooding the headlines, (without much of a reaction in gold prices) that could leave action in the US equity market, as the primary driving force in gold prices.
Comex Gold Stocks were 11.018 million ounces up 5,036 ounces. Gold stocks have increased in 11 of the last 20 days.
OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: (6:00 AM CT) Chinese stocks were higher overnight as investors in that region were temporarily emboldened off renewed signs of stimulus from the PBOC. European markets were somewhat supported off dialogue from the ECB overnight with some officials relieved by the efforts of Greece to get control of their economy. However, the IMF discouraged some commodity buyers overnight with a downward revision in global growth forecasts.
Indian equities were higher today especially because of a visit from a visit by the US Treasury Secretary and by US Fed officials. US equities were weaker this morning, as the trade has started to look ahead to a less than stellar kick off to the next US corporate earnings cycle.
The US economic report slate remains relatively thin today, with a series of 3rd and 4th tier private surveys and chain store sales reports due out. After the surprise decline in the US unemployment rate last Friday, the Employment Trends Index release today might garner some added attention.
*Disclaimer: The information in the Market Commentaries was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed therein constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any futures or options contracts.