Compiled 10/18/11 6:00 AM (CT) Statistics: London Gold Fix $1,658.00 -$31.00 LME Copper Stocks 451,925 tons +275 tons GOLD MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: (6:00 AM CST) The gold market has continued to track its physical commodity market fundamentals overnight with a weaker trade that in turn was seemingly the result of renewed dollar gains and concern of significant slowing evidence in the Euro zone. With Germany posting some very slow ZEW readings overnight, the gold trade seems to be concerned that German officials might be forced to scale back their support for Greece. The gold market actually saw mixed economic results from China overnight and that probably leaves the ebb and flow of macro economic sentiment heavily influenced by numbers out of the Euro zone and the US. The gold market might also have been undermined by news of softer than expected top line revenue numbers from IBM yesterday afternoon and that might suggest that the current US earnings cycle is shaking out as a slight negative to gold and other physical commodity markets. Supply side news overnight might also be applying some pressure to gold prices, as the Press talked up rising supplies in India again and there was evidence that gold production in a Zimbabwe mine was running well ahead of targeting. However, it would appear that gold remains focused on the ebb and flow of investment demand and it is currently less interested in physical supply and physical demand developments. It is also possible that a rise in the US dollar was providing some pressure to gold, which in turn seems to have prompted a risk off mentality again in many commodity markets. Comex Gold Stocks were 11.120 million ounces up 2,735 ounces. Gold stocks have declined in 14 of the last 20 sessions. OUTSIDE MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: (6:00 AM CST) While equity markets in Asia and Europe were generally weaker during overnight trading, early indications are that US equity markets will open close to unchanged levels later on today. The US Dollar is generally stronger against most of the major currencies, although posting a small loss versus the Yen. A senior advisor to the Chinese government stated that China could run a trade deficit next year, if there is a severe decline in exports due to a weak global economy. A major credit ratings agency warned that they may place France on a negative credit outlook. Chinese GDP during the third quarter was up 9.1% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected. Chinese Retail Sales during September were up 17.7% year-on-year, higher than market projections. Chinese Industrial Output during September was up 13.8% year-on-year, higher than forecasts. UK CPI during September was up 5.2% year-on-year, higher than expectations. A private survey of German economic sentiment during October was -48.3, weaker than forecasts. Major US economic numbers to be released this morning include the September Producer Price Index at 7:30 AM, a private survey of the US Housing market during October at 9:00 AM, and private surveys of store sales released during the session. Fed Chairman Bernanke will give a speech during the session, and Fed Regional President Lockhart will give a speech after the close.
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