WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher on what appeared to be speculative buying before the weekend.  Traders were getting out of short positions caused by demand ideas as weather remains poor in many growing areas and as there was talk that a US Debt deal would be reached over the weekend.  There was no deal made.  Ideas continue that Russia is taking all the export business.  Russia has captured the vast majority of the world business at the expense of the US since it entered the world export market again.  However, Egypt now wants to insect all cargos leaving Russia, a sign that perhaps the Wheat is not all that good there right now.  USDA implied very strong demand in the coming year, with Wheat likely to find its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  Weather remains a concern.  USDA is showing less production potential for the Spring crops due to the wet weather that has hurt planting and development.  It is starting to turn drier there now and good development of whatever got planted can be expected.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue.  Charts show that the trends are not well defined.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see precipitation over the middle of the week.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of precipitation over the middle of the week.   Temperatures will average near to below normal in the south and near to above normal in the north.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Iraq expects to produce 2.2 million tons of Wheat this yearand hopes to produce 3.0 million tons next year.  The estímate is about unchanged from previous estimates although many had expected lower production.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 633, 606, and 603 September.  Support is at 676, 673, and 670 September, with resistance at 698, 714, and 721 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 764, 758, and 750 September, with resistance at 797, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 821, 806, and 785 September, and resistance is at 840, 860, and 872 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                  
CFTC Code #001602                                                    Open Interest is   535,772                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   44,646   183,139   187,668    12,074    32,126    61,979    66,294    58,817    15,874    26,838    89,782                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:   -6,189    -6,776    -6,156      -686     1,232     1,005    -4,387     8,069    -3,212    -5,114       565                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:      8.3      34.2      35.0       2.3       6.0      11.6      12.4      11.0       3.0       5.0      16.8                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   411                     
:       66        93        19         8        25        57        72        62        75        67       110 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001612                                                    Open Interest is   174,320                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   36,627    97,203    30,917       524     5,280    39,798     8,975    18,709    10,538     4,676    12,577                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:   -5,326     3,436     1,111         0      -765     4,941    -2,555     2,733      -147       181    -1,831                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     21.0      55.8      17.7       0.3       3.0      22.8       5.1      10.7       6.0       2.7       7.2                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   178                     
:       46        65        14         .         7        31        18        24        18        16        2 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    60,162                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   22,791    35,409     1,095         0       177     8,474       788     3,235     4,270       942     5,851                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:      555    -1,216      -181      -193       -92    -2,044        44       328      -367      -320       204                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     37.9      58.9       1.8       0.0       0.3      14.1       1.3       5.4       7.1       1.6       9.7                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    81                     
:       29        28         4         0         .        10         .         7        17         4        16 
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RICE

General CommentsPrices were lower Friday on what appeared to be some speculative selling.  However, overall fundamentals remain positive for prices.  It is a weather market as crop conditions continue to deteriorate in the Mid South and Gulf Coast.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The USDA reports implied that supplies will be very tight for the entire year due to the lost planted area earlier in the year.  USDA left yields high, which is common until they actually take farm surveys, so it is possible that production estimates could be cut more in future reports, especially given recent hot and dry weather in many growing areas.  World prices have been a little firmer in Asia, mostly for political reasons.  Chart trends are up, but bulls are starting to lose the force in the market. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Wire reports indicate that Thai prices are at least 6% lower to start the week, but that Vietnamese prices are holding firm on demand from Indonesia.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1669, 1646, and 1628 September, and resistance is at 1702, 1716, and 1720 September.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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ROUGH RICE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            
CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    18,923                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    3,813    13,149     3,717        64         5     2,762       565       218     1,812     1,432     2,001                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:      -39       934       -96        64         5       615      -191         0      -204       -54      -119                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     20.1      69.5      19.6       0.3       0.0      14.6       3.0       1.2       9.6       7.6      10.6                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    87                     
:       16        18         8         .         .        18         .         .        17        15        16 
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CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on general economic fears and on ideas of crop damage from all of the excessive heat seen last week.  It stayed hot over the weekend, but many areas saw tropical down pours and some areas got major rains.  Chicago got seven inches of rain in one hour and over eight inches in one day.  One station in northern Indiana reported more than 13 inches of rain on Saturday.  Weather forecasts for this week offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest.  Oats are entering harvest, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  Very hot weather moved through the Midwest last week, and the high night time temperatures probably caused some yield loss.  However, temperatures are forecast to cool down this week and there was a lot of rain over the weekend, and this might help keep losses to a minimum.  The losses might not be seen until the Corn is more developed as current reports indicate that the crops have good color and look fine in many areas.  Basis levels are mostly steady at the Gulf.  Supplies could be very tight by September.  Trends are mixed.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico and steady in the Midwest. Japan bought 105,156 tons of US New Crop Corn over the weekend.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 682, 673, and 671 September, and resistance is at 694, 711, and 713 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 350, 347, and 340 September, and resistance is at 355, 366, and 368 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #002602                                                    Open Interest is 1,825,618                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:  319,315   751,817   288,504    49,062   125,410   277,723    30,598   172,860    85,446    56,398   366,802                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:   10,100    28,983    -5,508     1,018     9,172    27,550    -3,508     3,229    -4,965      -499    34,469                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     17.5      41.2      15.8       2.7       6.9      15.2       1.7       9.5       4.7       3.1      20.1                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   864                     
:      259       376        16        13        28       118        30        80       138       132       202 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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OATS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is    14,326                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    4,839    10,284     2,079         0         0     2,252       659         0       496        98     1,982                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:      -69       223       -95         0         0       -89      -157         0       -32       -26       413                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     33.8      71.8      14.5       0.0       0.0      15.7       4.6       0.0       3.5       0.7      13.8                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    39                     
:        9        12         4         0         0         9         .         0         5         5         6 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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CBT ETHANOL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)                                      
CFTC Code #025601                                                    Open Interest is     8,855                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    6,716     6,598       224       108       202       460         0        30       356     1,235       343                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:     -390      -807       169      -105       -45       140         0       -30        11       762        38                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     75.8      74.5       2.5       1.2       2.3       5.2       0.0       0.3       4.0      13.9       3.9                                                                        &nbs