08/01 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 01 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    07/31/11  07/24/11  07/31/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      5         4        18       N/A
  - Good                          25        25        48       N/A
  - Fair                          30        30        25       N/A
  - Poor                          18        18         7       N/A
  - Very Poor                     22        23         2       N/A
    CORN CONDITION
  - Excellent                     16        16        24       N/A
  - Good                          46        46        47       N/A
  - Fair                          24        24        19       N/A
  - Poor                           9         9         7       N/A
  - Very Poor                      5         5         3       N/A
    SOYBEANS CONDITION
  - Excellent                     14        13        18       N/A
  - Good                          46        49        48       N/A
  - Fair                          28        27        23       N/A
  - Poor                           9         8         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      3         3         3       N/A
    RICE CONDITION
  - Excellent                     23        20        21       N/A
  - Good                          41        43        51       N/A
  - Fair                          27        28        22       N/A
  - Poor                           6         6         5       N/A
  - Very Poor                      3         3         1       N/A
    SPRING WHEAT CONDITION
  - Excellent                     14        14        18       N/A
  - Good                          56        60        64       N/A
  - Fair                          23        21        15       N/A
  - Poor                           5         4         2       N/A
  - Very Poor                      2         1         1       N/A
    PEANUTS CONDITION
  - Excellent                      7         6        12       N/A
  - Good                          36        34        45       N/A
  - Fair                          36        41        33       N/A
  - Poor                          16        13         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      5         6         2       N/A
    SORGHUM CONDITION
  - Excellent                      2         3        10       N/A
  - Good                          22        24        59       N/A
  - Fair                          32        34        26       N/A
  - Poor                          24        22         4       N/A
  - Very Poor                     20        17         1       N/A
    BARLEY CONDITION
  - Excellent                     13        14        18       N/A
  - Good                          59        63        68       N/A
  - Fair                          23        19        10       N/A
  - Poor                           4         3         3       N/A
  - Very Poor                      1         1         1       N/A
    OATS CONDITION
  - Excellent                     10        11        18       N/A
  - Good                          45        45        58       N/A
  - Fair                          21        20        18       N/A
  - Poor                           9         9         5       N/A
  - Very Poor                     15        15         1       N/A
    PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
  - Excellent                      8         9        12       N/A
  - Good                          33        35        48       N/A
  - Fair                          23        23        26       N/A
  - Poor                          16        15        10       N/A
  - Very Poor                     20        18         4       N/A
    COTTON SQUARING               90        79        96        92
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          62        46        68        62
    CORN SILKING                  83        65        92        84
    CORN DOUGHING                 18         9        30        23
    CORN DENTED                    4        NA         6         5
    SOYBEANS BLOOMING             77        60        84        81
    SOYBEANS SETTING PODS         34        16        50        45
    RICE HEADED                   47        33        65        49
    WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED        81        75        83        86
    SPRING WHEAT HEADED           90        83        97        98
    PEANUTS PEGGING               80        64        85        83
    SORGHUM HEADED                42        34        51        49
    SORGHUM COLORING              28        25        25        27
    SORGHUM MATURE                23        NA        18        20
    BARLEY HEADED                 92        86        96        97
    OATS HARVESTED                30        20        48        44

 

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday as traders reacted to the debt deal in Washington and the weather.  Positive demand news remains hard to find.  Ideas continue that Russia is taking all the export business.  USDA implied very strong demand in the coming year, with Wheat likely to find its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  Weather remains a concern.  The crop tour last week showed less production potential for the Spring crops due to the wet weather that has hurt planting and development.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Charts show that the trends are trying to turn down.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. 

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 633, 606, and 603 September.  Support is at 670, 645, and 630 September, with resistance at 692, 714, and 721 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 760, 758, and 750 September, with resistance at 778, 800, and 810 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 819, 806, and 785 September, and resistance is at 840, 860, and 872 September.

RICE

General Comments Prices were higher yesterday as the debt deal was made, but made its highs early and sold off for the rest of the day.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  Texas is starting to harvest now, with good initial yields being reported.  The USDA reports implied that supplies will be very tight for the entire year due to the lost planted area earlier in the year, and the supplies could get even more tight if the yields come in below USDA forecasts.  World prices have been a little firmer in Asia, mostly for political reasons in Thailand, but for demand reasons in Vietnam. 

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Vietnamese Rice exports are now estimated at 6.0 million tons through September, up 13.2% from last year.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1588 and 1506 September.  Support is at 1609, 1593, and 1574 September, and resistance is at 1646, 1657, and 1669 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn was and Oats were higher yesterday as Corn reacted to stressful conditions in southern sections of the Midwest and the debt deal in Washington.  Some rains were seen in central and southern areas last week as well.  There have been some reports of yield loss surfacing in recent days but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather.  Traders are now starting to wonder just how good yields can be, but some yield loss overall seems likely.  Weather forecasts this week continue to offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest, with near to above normal temperatures in at least the northern half of the Corn Belt and some rains.  Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well.  The southern growing areas could continue to see conditions deteriorate.  Oats are entering harvest, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  Basis levels are steady at the Gulf.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 658, 646, and 636 September.  Support is at 645, 630, and 597 September, and resistance is at 684, 691, and 698 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 368 and 320 September.  Support is at 346, 340, and 333 September, and resistance is at 352, 355, and 366 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were higher in response to the debt deal in Washington.  Wetter weather in the northern Midwest aided in crop development but not in strong prices.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal in the north, but still hot in the south, and some showers and storms in northern areas.  Southern areas should stay stressed for the next week or so.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.  Gulf basis levels were unchanged.  Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice.  Ideas of strong production in South America and the potential for production and planted area here in the US to increase are negative.  South America has plenty of production and has been offering, but activity there seems slow.  Charts show that trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1313 and 1275 September.  Support is at 1333, 1322, and 1304 September, and resistance is at 1366, 1379, and 1386 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 351.00 and 340.00 September.  Support is at 349.00, 348.00, and 343.00 September, and resistance is at 358.00, 365.00, and 368.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5470 and 5340 September.  Support is at 5530, 5480, and 5390 September, with resistance at 5700, 5740, and 5820 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was closed.  Cash movement by farmers was reported active last week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition in Canada for now, but crops got off to a very slow start and losses are possible despite better weather now.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Traders will watch weather in the US and in the Prairies this week  Palm Oil was a little lower today in consolidation trading and on ideas that inventories remain too high.  Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks.  SGS estimated exports for July at 1.628 million tons, from 1.434 million in June.  ITK estimated exports at 1.633 million tons, from 1.440 million in June.  Trends are mostly sideways for now. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 553.00, 551.00, and 545.00 November, with resistance at 560.00, 564.00, and 570.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3055, 3030, and 3005 October, with resistance at 3130, 3140, and 3160 October.

Midwest Weather:   Showers are possible in northern areas over the next couple of days.  More showers again at the end of the week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.