DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 4
For the week ended Jul 28, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1.
wk's net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 499.6 4.5 10561.3 9240.0 5800.4 63.6
corn 297.4 461.2 47361.5 51403.8 6235.5 7988.3
soybeans -405.6 1085.8 41661.0 40672.2 2761.1 9908.0
soymeal 251.3 17.0 7704.6 9375.0 1117.6 445.1
soyoil 18.4 3.5 1291.3 1430.0 107.9 10.3
upland cotton 8.5 3.1 14105.4 12882.4 804.6 5932.4
pima cotton 0.3 0.1 523.2 680.0 42.9 327.7
sorghum -18.9 20.0 3542.4 3465.8 521.5 116.4
barley 27.5 0.0 79.3 16.9 76.7 0.0
rice 38.5 3.8 4079.6 3948.7 380.4 57.2
General Comments: Futures closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Positive export demand news remains hard to find as ideas continue that Russia is taking all the export business. USDA implied very strong demand in the coming year, and Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way. The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue. Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops. Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest. Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas. Charts show that the trends are trying to turn up after the strong price action this week.
Overnight News: Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation. Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north. The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation. Temperatures will average near normal. Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat. Egypt bought 240,000 tons of Russian and Romanian Wheat overnight. Iraq asid it produced 1.73 million tons of Wheat in 2010-11.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 724 and 742 September. Support is at 705, 690, and 670 September, with resistance at 723, 729, and 732 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 840 September. Support is at 789, 762, and 760 September, with resistance at 810, 832, and 851 September. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 836, 819, and 808 September, and resistance is at 860, 872, and 894 September.
General Comments Prices were a little lower again yesterday in sympathy with the selling in Corn and other agricultural markets. The market held well, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf Coast is keeping the buyers cautious. Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume. It remains hot and dry in these growing areas, and producers in Arkansas are worried about both yields and quality. Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states. No milling yield reports have been heard yet. Cash markets are reported to be firming up in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies. New crop bids have also been firming. The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term.
Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas the second half of the week. Temperatures will average above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1622, 1608, and 1593 September, and resistance is at 1657, 1669, and 1689 September.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats were a little lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation. Corn reacted to stressful conditions in southern sections of the Midwest and held better than the other markets. Some rains were seen in northern and eastern areas yesterday, and forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas by the end of the week and over the weekend. There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good. Analysts appear less enthused about production potential, as FC Stone estimated production at just over 13.0 billion bushels on Monday and Linn Group estimated production at 12.775 billion bushels yesterday. We feel that production could be about 13 billion bushels. Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well. Corn has faded on past rally attempts to $7.00 or higher, and could fade once again as demand loss starts to become an issue. Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.
Overnight News: Basis was weaker at the Gulf of Mexico.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 728 September. Support is at 693, 684, and 671 September, and resistance is at 714, 721, and 729 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 340, 333, and 331 September, and resistance is at 350, 352, and 356 September.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on speculative profit taking and forecasts for more moderate growing conditions in the Midwest. Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest so far this week has aided in crop development, but it remains very hot in the south. Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal in the north, but still warm in the south, and some showers and storms in most areas by the end of the week and over the weekend. Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest. August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now. Gulf basis levels were unchanged. Upside price potential would still appear to be more limited than that for Corn or Wheat or Rice. Charts show that trends are mixed.
Overnight News: Basis levels are steady at the gulf. Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. China bought 174,000 tons of US new crop Soybeans overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1351, 1342, and 1333 September, and resistance is at 1367, 1375, and 1386 September. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 353.00, 349.00, and 348.00 September, and resistance is at 358.00, 365.00, and 368.00 September. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 5640, 5560, and 5530 September, with resistance at 5740, 5820, and 5910 September.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation. Commercials were scale down buyers. Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop. Most crops appear to be in good condition. It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast. European conditions are good. Palm Oil was higher today as it reacted to Chicago price action yesterday and the weather in the US. Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00 November. Support is at 560.00, 553.00, and 551.00 November, with resistance at 570.00, 574.00, and 580.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3120, 3090, and 3055 October, with resistance at 3160, 3180, and 3250 October.
Midwest Weather: Mostly dry conditions over the next couple of days. More showers again at the end of the week. Temperatures will average near normal.