WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly higher Friday as markets mirrored action in the US stock market and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains.  Positive export demand news remains hard to find as ideas continue that Russia and other eastern European countries is taking all the export business.  However, the Iraq purchase here late last week shows that the US is finally getting competitive with Russia.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are mixed.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady to easier for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  USDA asid that 100,000 tons of HRW were sold to unknown destinations.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 670, 666, and 664 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 762, 760, and 758 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 817, 811, and 808 September, and resistance is at 836, 840, and 860 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                  
CFTC Code #001602                                                    Open Interest is   538,933                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   50,051   178,150   191,742     9,176    35,923    61,211    73,100    56,919    12,580    31,101    86,025                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:    4,984      -747     2,706       817     2,181     1,539     3,269     1,066    -2,077     2,522     1,081                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:      9.3      33.1      35.6       1.7       6.7      11.4      13.6      10.6       2.3       5.8      16.0                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   409                     
:       75        92        19         7        24        58        68        64        63        79       112 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001612                                                    Open Interest is   178,656                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   30,549   100,524    31,337       522     4,591    44,681     8,305    20,369    12,311     5,055    12,768                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:   -4,153     1,207     1,233         0      -966     2,712       571       206     1,066       189      -653                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     17.1      56.3      17.5       0.3       2.6      25.0       4.6      11.4       6.9       2.8       7.1                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   184                     
:       51        69        14         .         8        34        17        29        19        18        29 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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WHEAT - MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    57,415                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   21,942    33,777     1,692         0       328     8,692     1,230     3,698     4,039       745     4,332                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:     -941    -1,557       557         0       151       160       439       274      -251      -310      -966                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     38.2      58.8       2.9       0.0       0.6      15.1       2.1       6.4       7.0       1.3       7.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    78                     
:       32        27         6         0         .         9         5         8        14         5        13 
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RICE

General Comments:  Prices were a little higher Friday in sympathy with the selling in Corn and other agricultural markets and in sympathy with the massive selling seen in world equities markets against certain crop losses here in the US.  The market held well once again, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf Coast is keeping the buyers cautious.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The weather could moderate in the Mid South later this week.  It remains hot and dry in these growing areas, and producers in Arkansas are worried about both yields and quality.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be firming up in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been firming.  Mixed reports about cash markets have been heard in Texas.  The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term, and price action late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Vietnam has exported 4.62 million tons of Rice so far this calendar year.  Prices there have rallied about 5% since late July.  Japan started to trade Rice futures in two exchanges today.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to down with objectives of 1588 and 1505 September.  Support is at 1616, 1608, and 1593 September, and resistance is at 1646, 1657, and 1669 September.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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ROUGH RICE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                           
CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    19,589                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    3,987    13,066     3,560       141         8     3,046       565       498     1,437     1,545     2,127                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:      198      -580      -208        19         3      -182         0       230      -192        34       305                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     20.4      66.7      18.2       0.7       0.0      15.6       2.9       2.5       7.3       7.9      10.9                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    87                     
:       16        17         8         .         .        19         .         .        16        14        16 
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CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were mostly higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world stock markets and the sharp rally in the US Dollar against buying tied to crop losses here in the US.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas this week.  There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good.  Analysts appear less enthused about production potential.  We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels.  Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well.  Corn has faded on past rally attempts to $7.00 or higher, and has been fading once again as demand loss starts to become an issue.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.  Egypt bought 120,000 tons of US Corn over the weekend. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 684, 682, and 679 September, and resistance is at 714, 721, and 729 September.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 September.  Support is at 331, 327, and 321 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #002602                                                    Open Interest is 1,891,929                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:  308,630   753,636   290,833    47,789   152,665   296,980    26,853   199,142    86,417    57,836   368,009                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:    3,213    15,176    -4,568      -540    26,143    19,172    -2,383    21,428     3,201     4,091    26,215                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     16.3      39.8      15.4       2.5       8.1      15.7       1.4      10.5       4.6       3.1      19.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   882                     
:      259       387        16        13        28       132        29        90       122       139       195 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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OATS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is    14,067                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    4,640    10,132     2,048         0         1     2,420       688         0       512       184     1,600                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:      333       292       -33         0         1        71        -5         0       -12        91      -572                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     33.0      72.0      14.6       0.0       0.0      17.2       4.9       0.0       3.6       1.3      11.4                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    41                     
:        9        12         4         0         .        10         .         0         9         .         6 
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Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 2, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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CBT ETHANOL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)                                      
CFTC Code #025601                                                    Open Interest is     9,528                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    7,528     6,682        33       928       260       589         0         5       394     1,101       181                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 26, 2011                                                                              
:     -114       190       -63       -82        71       109         0       -12        23      -134      -165                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     79.0      70.1       0.3       9.7       2.7       6.2       0.0       0.1       4.1      11.6       1.9                                                        &n