08/16 15:19 CDT US corn, soy, spring wheat prevented planting 7 mln acres
    * Corn prevented planting 2.947 mln acres - USDA data
    * Prevent planting soy 1.421 mln acres, sp wheat 2.623 mln
    WASHINGTON, Aug 16 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers reported 7
million acres (2.8 million hectares) of prevented plantings of
corn, soy and spring wheat this year, Agriculture Department
data showed on Tuesday.
    A cold, rainy spring delayed plantings in the Corn Belt and
the northern U.S. Plains. USDA requires annual reports of
plantings from growers who participate in the farm program.
    Analyst Shawn McCambridge of Jefferies Bache said the data
indicated substantial abandonment of durum and spring wheat
area.
    The data will be incorporated into USDA crop forecasts,
among other uses. A USDA spokesman said that while enrollment
in the farm program is high, it is not universal so the acreage
data does not cover all growers of the crops or all plantings.
    U.S. acreage data for selected 2011 crops
              (millions of acres)
      Crop        Prevent  Planted   Total
      Corn          2.947   86.779  90.017
      Soybeans      1.421   73.078  74.597
      Spring wheat  2.623   11.737  14.329

 

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday in reaction to the USDA certified acres announcement made overnight and on some reports of lower than expected yields for Spring Wheat.  Minneapolis was sharply higher all day, and Chicago was able to follow.  Kansas City was higher, but felt the rally less as there are some forecasts for light showers in parts of the central and southern Great Plains.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia and other origins, although that could change if US Wheat futures continue to rally.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Some showers are in the forecast for the Texas Panhandle for the weekend.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning up after the price action yesterday.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation this weekend.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light showers.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  MGE asid it will accept non US origin Wheat for delivery against its contracts.  The change would come no later tan May, 2013.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 734, 742, and 805 September.  Support is at 721, 705, and 690 September, with resistance at 733, 767, and 772 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 840 and 852 September.  Support is at 796, 789, and 762 September, with resistance at 823, 832, and 851 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with no objectives.  Support is at 872, 860, and 840 September, and resistance is at 921, 932, and 938 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were little changed yesterday in consolidation trading.  Traders were more worried about European economics than anything to do about Rice.  The market remains concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  The temperatures have moderated in the Mid South, but the region is still not getting a lot of rain.  It is seeing some showers and the situation there is showing some improvement.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas.  New crop bids have also been steady.  Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm.  However, futures remain well above cash prices.  Trends are generally up on the charts.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  Thai traders told wire services that Vietnamese exporters have begun to default on contracts due to rising prices.  The Thai government said it would buy Rice from farmers at sharply higher prices.  The prices paid will be almost double the market price.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1680, 1675, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1719, 1729, and 1736 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher yesterday as Wheat rallied, but the economic issues in Europe kept overall buying interest thin.  The USDA crop progress and condition reports showed faster than normal progress continued but that overall conditions were stable.  There is increasing talk of yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two to help keep yields from falling further.  Some beneficial showers were seen in the Midwest over the weekend, but about a third of the Corn Belt stayed dry.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  The question now is just how big those losses are.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 730 and 771 September.  Support is at 698, 693, and 688 September, and resistance is at 715, 721, and 729 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 344, 340, and 335 September, and resistance is at 350, 356, and 360 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on weaker financial markets that were reacting to the European problems, but Soybean Oil managed a small gain on the day.  Futures felt no effect from the certified acres announcements from USDA as Soybeans in general were planted, and also felt little from the USDA crop progress and condition reports that showed good progress and stable conditions.  Overall Midwest weather is improving for Soybeans development and production potential.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last weekend has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south.  However, about a third of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas today and this weekend, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  Charts show that trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1322, 1315, and 1311 September, and resistance is at 1351, 1369, and 1375 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 349.00, 348.00, and 345.00 September, and resistance is at 353.00, 356.00, and 358.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5400, 5370, and 5320 September, with resistance at 5530, 5560, and 5640 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was lower after trading higher much of the day.  It is a slow, but volatile trading session, with speculators the best traders on both sides.  Reports of cold weather in Alberta provided the main support.  Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow.  Crusher demand is said to be more active.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active again this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  Palm Oil was lower today on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  A higher US Dollar was a little negative.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 553.00, 551.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 557.00, 560.00, and 565.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2895 November, with resistance at 3050, 3065, and 3085 November.

Midwest Weather:   Showers over the weekend.  Temperatures will average near normal.