DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 18
    For the week ended Aug 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. 
               wk's net chg             total
               in commitments        commitments      undlvd sales
              this yr  next yr   this yr   last yr  this yr  next yr
wheat           548.8      0.0   11486.2   11982.1   5446.7     63.6
corn            243.5    280.3   48046.4   52438.4   5069.2   8580.0
soybeans        224.4    197.1   42123.6   41119.9   2888.3  10455.3
soymeal          41.8     16.9    7769.8    9531.4    942.9    535.6
soyoil           68.0      7.0    1366.1    1436.3    157.2     17.3
upland cotton  -337.0    387.2    6375.6    6036.3   6212.3    525.3
pima cotton       0.2      0.9     370.8     146.4    367.2      0.9
sorghum           4.3      0.0    3527.3    3625.1    309.8    175.3
barley            1.2      0.0      80.6      60.6     51.6      0.0
rice             54.5      0.0     502.2     558.9    379.3      0.3

 

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on follow through buying tied to some reports of lower than expected yields for Spring Wheat.  Minneapolis was sharply higher all day, and Chicago was able to follow.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue for the week, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Some showers are in the forecast for the Texas Panhandle for the weekend.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  However, yioeld reports do not appear strong for Spring Wheat so far.  Charts show that the trends are turning up after the price action this week.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation this weekend.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light showers.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Egypt bought 240,000 tons of Russian and Romanian Soft Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 742, 805, and 890 September.  Support is at 721, 705, and 690 September, with resistance at 733, 739, and 767 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 840 and 852 September.  Support is at 812, 796, and 789 September, with resistance at 832, 851, and 868 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 938 and 1036 September.  Support is at 895, 875, and 872 September, and resistance is at 923, 932, and 938 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were higher yesterday on news of strong prices in Vietnam and Thailand and ideas of poor production here.  The Thai government has basically doubled prices paid to farmers there to keep a political promise, and it will be hard for Thai exporters to operate in the world market unless world prices rise as well.  Vietnamese prices have rallied due to light farm selling there coupled with strong export demand from previous sales.  The market remains concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  The temperatures have moderated in the Mid South, but the region is still not getting a lot of rain, although there has been some.  Texas and Louisiana are in harvest, with good yields being reported in both states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas.  New crop bids have also been steady.  Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm.  Futures remain well above cash prices.  Trends are generally up on the charts. 

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed to up with objectives of 1787 September.  Support is at 1700, 1680, and 1675 September, and resistance is at 1719, 1729, and 1736 September.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Aug 17
   USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices 
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields 
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG) 
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. 
                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate 
                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough 
                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt) 
Long Grain            21.48        14.06       0.00 
Medium/Short Grain    21.19        14.38       0.00 
Brokens               15.20         ----       ----
 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were a little lower yesterday as Wheat rallied, but the outside markets provided only a little support.  Funds were good sellers, but it as a light volume session overall.  The USDA crop progress and condition reports showed faster than normal progress continued but that overall conditions were stable.  There is increasing talk of yield loss due to the rapid progress of the crop.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two to help keep yields from falling further.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  The question now is just how big those losses are.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 730 and 771 September.  Support is at 708, 698, and 693 September, and resistance is at 721, 729, and 732 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 347, 343, and 340 September, and resistance is at 352, 356, and 360 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were higher along with rallies seen in most other commodities markets.  Futures felt little from the USDA crop progress and condition reports that showed good progress and stable conditions.  Overall Midwest weather is improving for Soybeans development and production potential.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last weekend has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south.  However, about a third of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas today and this weekend, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  Charts show that trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 1337, 1320, and 1315 September, and resistance is at 1369, 1375, and 1386 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 360.00 September.  Support is at 349.00, 348.00, and 345.00 September, and resistance is at 356.00, 358.00, and 365.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 5740 and 6000 September.  Support is at 5490, 5400, and 5370 September, with resistance at 5640, 5740, and 5810 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was higher on the back of the rally in Chicago and on reports of good domestic processor demand.  It is a slow, but volatile trading session, with speculators the best traders on both sides.  Reports of cold weather in Alberta provided the main support.  Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow.  Crusher demand is said to be more active.  Cash movement by farmers is reported slow this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop harvest.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  Palm Oil was a little lower today on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  A higher US Dollar was a little negative.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 553.00, 551.00, and 546.00 November, with resistance at 560.00, 565.00, and 570.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2990, 2960, and 2895 November, with resistance at 3050, 3065, and 3085 November.

Midwest Weather:   Showers over the weekend.  Temperatures will average near normal.