WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world stock markets and the sharp rally in the US Dollar.  Positive export demand news remains hard to find as ideas continue that Russia and other eastern European countries is taking all the export business.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are mixed.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Iraq bought 50,000 tons of Russian Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 670, 664, and 658 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 762, 760, and 758 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 817, 808, and 806 September, and resistance is at 836, 840, and 860 September.

RICE

General Comments Prices were a little lower again yesterday in sympathy with the selling in Corn and other agricultural markets and in sympathy with the massive selling seen in world equities markets.  The market held well, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf Coast is keeping the buyers cautious.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The weather could moderate in the Mid South by early next week.  It remains hot and dry in these growing areas, and producers in Arkansas are worried about both yields and quality.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Cash markets are reported to be firming up in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been firming.  The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term.

Overnight News: Mostly dry in the Mid South, dry along the Gulf Coast. Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas the second half of the week.  Temperatures will average above normal. India has planted 26.03 million hectares of Rice so far this year, from 24.47 million tons last year.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1616, 1608, and 1593 September, and resistance is at 1628, 1646, and 1657 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world stock markets and the sharp rally in the US Dollar.  Corn reacted to stressful conditions in southern sections of the Midwest and held better than the other markets.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas into next week.  There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good.  Analysts appear less enthused about production potential.  We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels.  Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well.  Corn has faded on past rally attempts to $7.00 or higher, and has been fading once again as demand loss starts to become an issue.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico.  Argentina will permit another 600,000 tons of Corn exports for this year.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 684, 682, and 671 September, and resistance is at 714, 721, and 729 September.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 September.  Support is at 331, 321, and 313 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were lower on speculative profit taking tied to the massive liquidation in world stock markets and the big rally in the US Dollar, and on forecasts for more moderate growing conditions in the Midwest.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest so far this week has aided in crop development, but it remains very hot in the south.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal in the north, but still warm in the south, and some showers and storms in most areas into next week.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.  Gulf basis levels were unchanged.  Charts show that trends are turning down with the better US weather. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1313 and 1275 September.  Support is at 1332, 1322, and 1304 September, and resistance is at 1342, 1351, and 1367 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 340.00 September.  Support is at 349.00, 348.00, and 343.00 September, and resistance is at 353.00, 358.00, and 365.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 5470 and 5340 September.  Support is at 5500, 5480, and 5390 September, with resistance at 5560, 5640, and 5740 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation tied to the US Dollar strength and massive selling in world stock markets.  This caused big speculative selling in Chicago and Canola went down in sympathy  Commercials were scale down buyers.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Palm Oil was lower today as it reacted to Chicago price action yesterday and the world economic fears.  Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 590.00 November.  Support is at 560.00, 553.00, and 551.00 November, with resistance at 565.00, 570.00, and 574.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3090, 3055, and 3030 October, with resistance at 3120, 3130, and 3140 October.

Midwest Weather:   More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.