DJ SURVEY: 2011 U.S. Wheat Production
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of August 1, as compiled by
Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                       Average      Range     July    2010
                                              USDA    Output
   All Wheat(17)       2.085     2.015-2.134  2.106   2.208
   All Winter (15)     1.483     1.400-1.505  1.492   1.485
   Hard Red Winter(13) 0.795     0.779-0.809  0.791   1.018
   Soft Red Winter(13) 0.457     0.446-0.465  0.458   0.238
   White Winter (13)   0.241     0.231-0.245  0.243   0.229
   Other spring (15)   0.550     0.515-0.577  0.551   0.616
   Durum (15)          0.062     0.058-0.065  0.064   0.107
                              All   All    HRW   SRW   White  Other  Durum
                              Wheat Winter             Winter Spring
   ABN Amro                   2.067 1.505  0.800 0.465 0.240  0.560  0.064
   ADM Investor Services      2.123 1.500  0.799 0.458 0.243  0.560  0.063
   AgriVisor                  2.109 1.495  0.798 0.455 0.242  0.556  0.058
   Allendale                  2.026 1.429   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.533  0.063
   Citigroup                  2.076 1.460  0.779 0.446 0.235  0.554  0.063
   Doane Advisory             2.026  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   Farm Futures               2.134 1.491   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.577  0.062
   Global Cmd Analytics       2.052  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   *Informa                   2.117 1.504  0.809 0.453 0.242 0.555   0.058
   Jefferies Bache            2.104 1.486  0.792 0.451 0.243 0.555   0.063
   Kropf/Love                 2.086 1.500  0.797 0.460 0.243 0.526   0.060
   Macquarie                  2.069 1.492  0.787 0.464 0.241 0.515   0.062
   NARMS                      2.104 1.501  0.805 0.455 0.241 0.542   0.060
   Newedge                    2.121 1.500  0.796 0.461 0.243 0.556   0.065
   PFG Best                   2.095 1.487  0.790 0.455 0.242 0.546   0.062
   Price Group                2.015 1.400  0.791 0.458 0.231 0.550   0.065
   RJ O'Brien                 2.118 1.501  0.797 0.460 0.245 0.558   0.058
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: USDA August Corn, Soybean Production Report
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. corn and soybean production based on conditions as of August 1, as
compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                                           July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Production
   Corn (23)       13.083   12.775-13.356  13.470  12.447
   Soybeans (23)    3.174    3.119-3.225    3.225   3.329
   Yield                                   July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Yield
   Corn (23)       155.2     151.0-158.0   158.7   152.8
   Soybeans (23)    42.8      42.0-43.4     43.4    43.5
                         Corn         Corn    Soy         Soy
                         Production   Yield   Production  Yield
   ABN Amro              13.104       156.0   3.195       43.0
   ADM Inv Services      13.224       156.5   3.212       43.4
   AgriSource            13.100       154.9   3.150       42.5
   Agrivisor             13.235       157.1   3.141       42.5
   Allendale             12.953       155.2   3.119       42.0
   Citigroup             13.106       155.1   3.148       42.5
   Doane Advisory        13.221       157.5   3.150       42.5
   Farm Futures          12.877       153.3   3.162       42.5
   FC Stone              13.002       153.2   3.145       42.4
   Globl Cmd Anlytics    12.979       153.6   3.171       43.0
   *Informa              13.353       158.0   3.139       42.5
   Jeffries Bache        13.066       156.0   3.186       42.7
   Kropf and Love        13.075       154.0   3.200       43.0
   Linn Group            12.775       152.1   3.148       43.0
   Macquarie Bank        13.087       155.8   3.194       43.1
   N. Am Risk Mgmt       13.100       156.0   3.199       43.0
   Newedge               13.062       155.3   3.201       43.1
   PFG Best              12.950       156.9   3.200       43.0
   Price Group           13.075       154.0   3.195       43.0
   Prime Ag              13.350       158.0   3.225       43.4
   Risk Mgmt Comm        12.820       151.0   3.120       42.5
   RJ O'Brien            13.045       153.7   3.186       42.9
   U.S. Commodities      13.356       157.5   3.225       43.4
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: August US Grain, Soybean Carryout
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S.
grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires.
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply
and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number
of estimates in that average and range.
  2010-11
                                          July   2009-10
                 Average        Range     USDA   USDA
   Corn (12)     0.923       0.880-1.005  0.880  1.708
   Soybeans (12) 0.223       0.200-0.235  0.200  0.151
                                Corn    Soy
   ADM Inv Services             0.905   0.230
   Allendale                    0.913   0.205
   Citigroup                    0.930   0.220
   Doane Advisory               0.905   0.235
   Farm Futures                 0.910   0.208
   Jefferies Bache              0.905   0.235
   Macquarie Bank               0.932   0.234
   Newedge                      0.930   0.220
   North America Risk Mgmt      1.005   0.225
   Price Group                  0.880   0.200
   RJ O'Brien                   0.941   0.235
   U.S. Commodities             0.920   0.225
  2011-12
                                         July
                 Average        Range     USDA
   Corn (20)     0.741       0.527-0.986  0.870
   Soybeans (20) 0.172       0.110-0.222  0.175
   Wheat (18)    0.671       0.629-0.762  0.670
                                 Corn    Soy    Wheat
   ABN Amro                      0.950   0.190  0.710
   ADM Inv Services              0.749   0.222  0.680
   AgriSource                    0.625   0.155  0.645
   AgriVisor                     0.986   0.161  0.713
   Allendale                     0.742   0.154  0.703
   Citigroup                     0.771   0.150  0.660
   Doane Advisory                0.746   0.160  0.640
   Farm Futures                  0.527   0.161  0.640
   Global Commodity Analytics    0.594   0.133  0.637
   Jefferies Bache               0.641   0.175  0.668
   Kropf & Love                  0.675   0.175  0.650
   Macquarie Bank                0.739   0.207  0.629
   Newedge                       0.750   0.170  0.762
   North America Risk Mgmt       0.725   0.180  0.668
   PFG Best                      0.750   0.172  0.665
   Price Group                   0.800   0.175  0.635
   Prime Ag                      0.850   0.210  0.670
   RJ O'Brien                    0.696   0.178  0.697
   Risk Management Commod        0.675   0.110   n/a
   U.S. Commodities              0.821   0.205   n/a
U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights - USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 08 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    08/07/11  07/31/11  08/07/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      5         5        18       N/A
  - Good                          25        25        47       N/A
  - Fair                          29        30        25       N/A
  - Poor                          19        18         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                     22        22         2       N/A
    CORN CONDITION
  - Excellent                     15        16        23       N/A
  - Good                          45        46        48       N/A
  - Fair                          24        24        19       N/A
  - Poor                          10         9         7       N/A
  - Very Poor                      6         5         3       N/A
    SOYBEANS CONDITION
  - Excellent                     13        14        18       N/A
  - Good                          48        46        48       N/A
  - Fair                          26        28        23       N/A
  - Poor                           9         9         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      4         3         3       N/A
    RICE CONDITION
  - Excellent                     27        23        20       N/A
  - Good                          39        41        52       N/A
  - Fair                          25        27        23       N/A
  - Poor                           7         6         5       N/A
  - Very Poor                      2         3         0       N/A
    SPRING WHEAT CONDITION
  - Excellent                     11        14        16       N/A
  - Good                          55        56        66       N/A
  - Fair                          27        23        15       N/A
  - Poor                           5         5         3       N/A
  - Very Poor                      2         2         0       N/A
    SORGHUM CONDITION
  - Excellent                      3         2         9       N/A
  - Good                          24        22        57       N/A
  - Fair                          33        32        26       N/A
  - Poor                          22        24         6       N/A
  - Very Poor                     18        20         2       N/A
    PEANUTS CONDITION
  - Excellent                      6         7        11       N/A
  - Good                          37        36        49       N/A
  - Fair                          36        36        31       N/A
  - Poor                          15        16         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      6         5         1       N/A
    BARLEY CONDITION
  - Excellent                     13        13        18       N/A
  - Good                          59        59        65       N/A
  - Fair                          22        23        13       N/A
  - Poor                           5         4         3       N/A
  - Very Poor                      1         1         1       N/A
    OATS CONDITION
  - Excellent                      8        10        18       N/A
  - Good                          44        45        59       N/A
  - Fair                          23        21        17       N/A
  - Poor                          10         9         5       N/A
  - Very Poor                     15        15         1       N/A
    PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
  - Excellent                      7         8        10       N/A
  - Good                          32        33        47       N/A
  - Fair                          23        23        28       N/A
  - Poor                          17        16        11       N/A
  - Very Poor                     21        20         4       N/A
    COTTON SQUARING               95        90        98        96
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          79        62        82        74
    COTTON BOLLS OPEN              9        NA         8         8
    CORN SILKING                  93        83        97        93
    CORN DOUGHING                 32        18        49        38
    CORN DENTED                    7         4        14        10
    SOYBEANS BLOOMING             87        77        92        89
    SOYBEANS SETTING PODS         51        34        69        63
    RICE HEADED                   58        47        76        65
    WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED        85        81        87        91
    SPRING WHEAT HEADED           96        90        99       100
    SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED         6        NA        17        24
    SORGHUM HEADED                52        42        68        63
    SORGHUM COLORING              29        28        28        30
    SORGHUM MATURE                24        23        19        21
    PEANUTS PEGGING               87        80        91        89
    BARLEY HEADED                 96        92        99        99
    BARLEY HARVESTED               2        NA        13        23
    OATS HARVESTED                50        30        68        63
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Aug 8
    For the week ending Aug 4, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada.
Grain             -------week ending-------       current    previous
                 Aug 4      Jul 28       last      mkt yr      mkt yr
                                         year     to date     to date
Wheat           686.9       441.3       404.2     5,697.7     4,516.1
Rye               0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Oats              0.0         1.1         0.0         1.6         0.3
Barley            0.0         0.0         0.2        33.2         4.4
Flaxseed          0.0         0.0         0.4         0.0         0.6
Corn            806.4       826.3     1,137.0    42,151.5    44,055.9
Sorghum          70.1        53.8       143.2     3,557.2     3,957.1
Soybeans        153.6       162.0       201.9    39,532.6    38,449.3
Sunflower         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Total         1,717.0     1,484.4     1,886.9    90,973.8    90,983.8
  Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.
 

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed lower yesterday as markets mirrored action in the US stock market and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains.  S&P downgraded the US debt and there are a lot of economic growth concerns and these caused a huge sell off in stocks, and this spilled over into commodities.  However, commodities held better as the fundamentals are more positive, especially on the supply side and with the weather.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning down after the price action yesterday.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Egypt bought 60,000 tons of Russian Wheat overnight.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 633, 606, and 605 September.  Support is at 642, 640, and 620 September, with resistance at 658, 664, and 666 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 750, 732, and 725 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 785, 777, and 770 September, and resistance is at 817, 830, and 836 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were a little lower again yesterday in sympathy with the selling in Corn and other agricultural markets and in sympathy with the massive selling seen in world equities markets in response to the debt downgrade by S&P.  The market held very well once again, but the harvest is going on near the Gulf Coast is keeping the buyers cautious.  Buyers will also be cautious after USDA raised crop conditions overnight.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The weather could moderate in the Mid South later this week, but the region will not get a lot of rain.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be firm in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been firm.  Mixed reports about cash markets have been heard in Texas.  The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term, and price action late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US. 

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1616, 1608, and 1593 September, and resistance is at 1646, 1657, and 1669 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were lower yesterday on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation tied to the massive liquidation in the world stock markets and the credit rating change made by S&P over the weekend against buying tied to crop losses here in the US.  Traders are also worried about world growth prospects after the recent action in financial markets.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas this week.  Cooler temperatures will move into southern areas later in the week.  There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good.  Analysts appear less enthused about production potential as production estimates are just below 13.1 billion bushels.  We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels.  Hot conditions should remain in the south, and it should be drier, but some forecasts are calling for some showers in these areas as well.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 671, 662, and 648 September, and resistance is at 679, 682, and 684 September.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 320 September.  Support is at 327, 321, and 313 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were lower on speculative profit taking tied to the massive liquidation in world stock markets and the debt downgrade by S&P, and on forecasts for more moderate growing conditions this week in the Midwest.  Traders are worried about world growth prospects as well.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last week has aided in crop development, and better conditions are starting to move south.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas this week.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.  Gulf basis levels were unchanged.  Charts show that trends are turning down with the better US weather. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  Unknown destinations bought 25,000 tons of  US Soybean Oil overnight. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1313 and 1275 September.  Support is at 1297, 1292, and 1285 September, and resistance is at 1314, 1322, and 1332 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 340.00 September.  Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 September, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 349.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 5340 September.  Support is at 5370, 5320, and 5260 September, with resistance at 5410, 5480, and 5530 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was lower on speculative long liquidation tied to massive selling in world stock markets.  This caused big speculative selling in Chicago and Canola went down in sympathy.  Commercials were scale down buyers.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Swathing has started in Saskatchewan.  Palm Oil was sharply lower today as it reacted to Chicago price action and the world economic fears and the US debt downgrade.  Traders expect the current drier weather patterns in Malaysia to slow production in coming weeks. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 532.00 November.  Support is at 530.00, 528.00, and 511.00 November, with resistance at 551.00, 553.00, and 560.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2970 and 2920 October.  Support is at 2990, 2975, and 2960 October, with resistance at 3005, 3020, and 3060 October.

Midwest Weather:   More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.