DJ SURVEY: 2011 U.S. Wheat Production
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of August 1, as compiled by
Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                       Average      Range     July    2010
                                              USDA    Output
   All Wheat(17)       2.085     2.015-2.134  2.106   2.208
   All Winter (15)     1.483     1.400-1.505  1.492   1.485
   Hard Red Winter(13) 0.795     0.779-0.809  0.791   1.018
   Soft Red Winter(13) 0.457     0.446-0.465  0.458   0.238
   White Winter (13)   0.241     0.231-0.245  0.243   0.229
   Other spring (15)   0.550     0.515-0.577  0.551   0.616
   Durum (15)          0.062     0.058-0.065  0.064   0.107
                              All   All    HRW   SRW   White  Other  Durum
                              Wheat Winter             Winter Spring
   ABN Amro                   2.067 1.505  0.800 0.465 0.240  0.560  0.064
   ADM Investor Services      2.123 1.500  0.799 0.458 0.243  0.560  0.063
   AgriVisor                  2.109 1.495  0.798 0.455 0.242  0.556  0.058
   Allendale                  2.026 1.429   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.533  0.063
   Citigroup                  2.076 1.460  0.779 0.446 0.235  0.554  0.063
   Doane Advisory             2.026  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   Farm Futures               2.134 1.491   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.577  0.062
   Global Cmd Analytics       2.052  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   *Informa                   2.117 1.504  0.809 0.453 0.242 0.555   0.058
   Jefferies Bache            2.104 1.486  0.792 0.451 0.243 0.555   0.063
   Kropf/Love                 2.086 1.500  0.797 0.460 0.243 0.526   0.060
   Macquarie                  2.069 1.492  0.787 0.464 0.241 0.515   0.062
   NARMS                      2.104 1.501  0.805 0.455 0.241 0.542   0.060
   Newedge                    2.121 1.500  0.796 0.461 0.243 0.556   0.065
   PFG Best                   2.095 1.487  0.790 0.455 0.242 0.546   0.062
   Price Group                2.015 1.400  0.791 0.458 0.231 0.550   0.065
   RJ O'Brien                 2.118 1.501  0.797 0.460 0.245 0.558   0.058
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: USDA August Corn, Soybean Production Report
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. corn and soybean production based on conditions as of August 1, as
compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                                           July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Production
   Corn (23)       13.083   12.775-13.356  13.470  12.447
   Soybeans (23)    3.174    3.119-3.225    3.225   3.329
   Yield                                   July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Yield
   Corn (23)       155.2     151.0-158.0   158.7   152.8
   Soybeans (23)    42.8      42.0-43.4     43.4    43.5
                         Corn         Corn    Soy         Soy
                         Production   Yield   Production  Yield
   ABN Amro              13.104       156.0   3.195       43.0
   ADM Inv Services      13.224       156.5   3.212       43.4
   AgriSource            13.100       154.9   3.150       42.5
   Agrivisor             13.235       157.1   3.141       42.5
   Allendale             12.953       155.2   3.119       42.0
   Citigroup             13.106       155.1   3.148       42.5
   Doane Advisory        13.221       157.5   3.150       42.5
   Farm Futures          12.877       153.3   3.162       42.5
   FC Stone              13.002       153.2   3.145       42.4
   Globl Cmd Anlytics    12.979       153.6   3.171       43.0
   *Informa              13.353       158.0   3.139       42.5
   Jeffries Bache        13.066       156.0   3.186       42.7
   Kropf and Love        13.075       154.0   3.200       43.0
   Linn Group            12.775       152.1   3.148       43.0
   Macquarie Bank        13.087       155.8   3.194       43.1
   N. Am Risk Mgmt       13.100       156.0   3.199       43.0
   Newedge               13.062       155.3   3.201       43.1
   PFG Best              12.950       156.9   3.200       43.0
   Price Group           13.075       154.0   3.195       43.0
   Prime Ag              13.350       158.0   3.225       43.4
   Risk Mgmt Comm        12.820       151.0   3.120       42.5
   RJ O'Brien            13.045       153.7   3.186       42.9
   U.S. Commodities      13.356       157.5   3.225       43.4
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: August US Grain, Soybean Carryout
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S.
grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires.
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply
and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number
of estimates in that average and range.
  2010-11
                                          July   2009-10
                 Average        Range     USDA   USDA
   Corn (12)     0.923       0.880-1.005  0.880  1.708
   Soybeans (12) 0.223       0.200-0.235  0.200  0.151
                                Corn    Soy
   ADM Inv Services             0.905   0.230
   Allendale                    0.913   0.205
   Citigroup                    0.930   0.220
   Doane Advisory               0.905   0.235
   Farm Futures                 0.910   0.208
   Jefferies Bache              0.905   0.235
   Macquarie Bank               0.932   0.234
   Newedge                      0.930   0.220
   North America Risk Mgmt      1.005   0.225
   Price Group                  0.880   0.200
   RJ O'Brien                   0.941   0.235
   U.S. Commodities             0.920   0.225
  2011-12
                                         July
                 Average        Range     USDA
   Corn (20)     0.741       0.527-0.986  0.870
   Soybeans (20) 0.172       0.110-0.222  0.175
   Wheat (18)    0.671       0.629-0.762  0.670
                                 Corn    Soy    Wheat
   ABN Amro                      0.950   0.190  0.710
   ADM Inv Services              0.749   0.222  0.680
   AgriSource                    0.625   0.155  0.645
   AgriVisor                     0.986   0.161  0.713
   Allendale                     0.742   0.154  0.703
   Citigroup                     0.771   0.150  0.660
   Doane Advisory                0.746   0.160  0.640
   Farm Futures                  0.527   0.161  0.640
   Global Commodity Analytics    0.594   0.133  0.637
   Jefferies Bache               0.641   0.175  0.668
   Kropf & Love                  0.675   0.175  0.650
   Macquarie Bank                0.739   0.207  0.629
   Newedge                       0.750   0.170  0.762
   North America Risk Mgmt       0.725   0.180  0.668
   PFG Best                      0.750   0.172  0.665
   Price Group                   0.800   0.175  0.635
   Prime Ag                      0.850   0.210  0.670
   RJ O'Brien                    0.696   0.178  0.697
   Risk Management Commod        0.675   0.110   n/a
   U.S. Commodities              0.821   0.205   n/a

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday in recovery trading as markets mirrored action in the US stock market and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains.  The FED signaled that interest rates will remain very low for the next couple of years, and US equities markets responded with even more gains.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning mixed after the price action this week.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Saudi Arabia has tendered 660,000 tons of Hard Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 644, 642, and 640 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 750, 746, and 732 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 799, 785, and 777 September, and resistance is at 830, 836, and 840 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were sharply higher to limit up yesterday in sympathy with the recovery seen in world equities markets and also in other grains markets.  The market remains very concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  Rice is starting to head out in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The weather has started to moderate in the Mid South, but the region will not get a lot of rain.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been steady to firm.  Mixed reports about cash markets have been heard in Texas.  The charts have a weak overall appearance, but futures are in a range for the short term, and price action late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US. 

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Philippines said that first half 2011 Rice production was 7.58 million tons, up 14.4% from 2010.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with objectives of 1716 and 1787 September.  Support is at 1644, 1628, and 1622 September, and resistance is at 1689, 1702, and 1719 September.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Aug 10
   USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices
of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. 
                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate
                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough
                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)
Long Grain            21.48        14.06       0.00
Medium/Short Grain    21.19        14.38       0.00
Brokens               15.20         ----       ----
 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher yesterday on what appeared to be speculative buying tied to the rally in the world stock markets and to crop losses here in the US.  Traders are also worried about world growth prospects after the recent action in financial markets.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for central and eastern areas this week.  Cooler temperatures will move into southern areas later in the week.  There have been more reports of yield loss, but most farmers appear optimistic about pollination during the recent hot weather as crop color remains good.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  We feel that production could be about 13.07 billion bushels.  Forecasts are calling for some showers and more moderate temperatures in southern areas as well.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 671, 662, and 659 September, and resistance is at 684, 688, and 693 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 327, 323, and 321 September, and resistance is at 340, 346, and 350 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were lower on forecasts for more moderate growing conditions for the next week in the Midwest.  Traders are worried about world growth prospects as well even with the FED announcement yesterday.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last week has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas this week and this weekend.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.  Gulf basis levels were unchanged.  Charts show that trends are turning down with the better US weather. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady.  China imported 5.35 million tons of Soybeans in July. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 1275 September.  Support is at 1285, 1277, and 1256 September, and resistance is at 1304, 1315, and 1322 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with no objectives.  Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 September, and resistance is at 348.00, 349.00, and 353.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 5320, 5260, and 5220 September, with resistance at 5370, 5410, and 5480 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was a little lower on weakness in Chicago.  The big speculative selling in Chicago was caused mostly by improving crop conditions in the Midwest and Canola went down in sympathy.  Commercials were scale down buyers.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Swathing has started in Saskatchewan.  Palm Oil was higher today in recovery trading.  The MPOB data was neutral to futures.  Charts show that trends have turned down this week. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 532.00 November.  Support is at 530.00, 528.00, and 511.00 November, with resistance at 545.00, 551.00, and 553.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2900, 2875, and 2850 October, with resistance at 2960, 32975, and 2990 October.

08/09 23:40 CDT Malaysia's July palm oil stocks ease 2.8 pct
                      (volumes in tonnes)
          July 2011   July poll     July 2010  June 2011
Output    1,751,264   1,700,607     1,518,896  1,753,191
Stocks    1,996,317   1,996,000     1,409,252  2,053,382
Exports   1,729,518   1,630,000     1,459,881  1,585,039
Imports*     97,114      60,000       100,521     88,340
    * Refers to Malaysian imports of mostly Indonesian crude
palm oil

Midwest Weather:   More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.