The USDA reports are considered bvery bullish to Corn and Soybeans.  Both are called limit up.  Wheat is called to open about 20 higher.  Rice should open about unchanged.
 
08/11 07:31 CDT August 11 U.S. soy, wheat, corn highlights - USDA
August 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Agriculture Department issued the following
key U.S. crop information in its monthly world supply-and-demand report.
    The data includes last month's forecast for comparison.
                                     SOYBEANS
                       (Million bushels, except where noted)
                        2009/10  2010/11  2011/12 Projections
                         Actual  Estimate July       Aug
SOYBEANS
Planted (mln acre)        77.5    77.4     75.2     75.0
Harvested (mln acre)      76.4    76.6     74.3     73.8
Yield/acre (bu)           44.0    43.5     43.4     41.4
Production               3,359   3,329    3,225    3,056
Crushings                1,752   1,645    1,655    1,635
Exports                  1,499   1,495    1,495    1,400
Ending stocks              151     230      175      155
SOYBEAN OIL (mln lbs)
Production              19,615  19,035   18,900   18,670
Exports                  3,359   3,200    1,800    1,650
Ending stocks            3,406   2,816    2,206    1,971
SOYBEAN MEAL (thou short tons)
Production              41,707  39,608   39,285   38,885
Exports                 11,160   9,050    8,550    8,550
Ending stocks              302     300      300      300
                                     WHEAT
Planted (mln acre)        59.2    53.6     56.4     55.2
Harvested (mln acre)      49.9    47.6     47.2     45.9
Yield/acre (bu)           44.5    46.4     44.6     45.2
Production (mln bu)      2,218   2,208    2,106    2,077
Exports (mln bu)           879   1,289    1,150    1,100
Ending stocks (mln bu)     976     861      670      671
                                 WHEAT BY CLASS
                                  (mln bushels)
   Year beginning     Hard   Hard   Soft
     June 1          Winter Spring  Red   White Durum Total
2010/11
Production           1,018    570   238    275   107  2,208
Exports                616    339   109    182    43  1,289
Ending stocks          386    185   170     85    35    861
2011/12 (projected)
Production             794    475   452    298    57  2,077
Exports                490    270   125    190    25  1,100
  Ending stocks:
       August          222    143   197     96    13    671
       July            199    173   183    102    14    670
                       WHEAT PRODUCTION BY CLASS
                               1,000 bushels
                   2010               2011
Winter
Hard red         1,018,337          794,388
Soft red           237,804          451,981
Hard white          13,496           11,752
Soft white         215,599          239,308
Spring
Hard red           569,975          474,540
Hard white           9,256            9,006
Soft white          36,744           38,429
Durum              107,180           57,130
                                      CORN
                      (Million bushels, except where noted)
                        2009/10  2010/11  2011/12 Projections
                         Actual  Estimate July       Aug
Planted (mln acre)        86.4    88.2     92.3     92.3
Harvested (mln acre)      79.5    81.4     84.9     84.4
Yield/acre (bu)          164.7   152.8    158.7    153.0
Production              13,092  12,447   13,470   12,914
Exports                  1,980   1,825    1,900    1,750
Ending stocks            1,708     940      870      714
                             U.S. ETHANOL PRODUCTION
Ethanol and By-products  4,591   5,020    5,150    5,100
                            U.S. SOY OIL FOR BIODIESEL
Methyl Ester             1,680   2,150    3,500    3,500
    FORECASTS:  Analysts polled by Reuters expected the USDA report to show the
following U.S. crop data:
Corn 2010/11 end stocks.................922 mln bushels
Corn 2011/12 end stocks.................751 mln bushels
Corn 2011/12 production..............13.082 bln bushels
Corn 2011/12 yield......................155.589 bu/acre
Soybeans 2010/11 end stocks.............218 mln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 end stocks.............168 mln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 production...........3.187 bln bushels
Soybeans 2011/12 yield...................42.775 bu/acre
Wheat 2011/12 end stocks................671 mln bushels
All Wheat output 2011/12..............2.079 bln bushels
All Winter 2011/12....................1.491 bln bushels
Other Spring 2011/12....................541 mln bushels
Durum wheat 2011/12......................61 mln bushels
08/11 07:30 CDT August 11 World grain highlights - USDA 
WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - World grain production will total 2,264.66
million tonnes in the 2011/12 crop year, down from a previous forecast of
2,269.08 million, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Thursday.
   World output for 2011/12 would include 672.09 million tonnes of wheat,
1,136.32 million of coarse (feed) grains and 456.25 million of rice.
   Oilseeds were pegged at 451.44 million tonnes.
   The following are highlights from USDA's latest monthly World Agricultural
Supply an Demand report, with the previous month's estimate for comparison:
                 WORLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES
                            2011/12          2010/11
                          Aug    July       Aug    July
WHEAT (mln tonnes)
Australia Crop           25.00   25.00    26.00   26.00
Australia Exports        17.00   17.00    17.50   17.50
Argentina Crop           13.50   15.00    15.00   15.00
Argentina Exports         7.50    9.00     9.00    8.00
EU Crop                 133.49  132.12   135.61  135.66
EU Exports               15.00   15.00    22.50   22.00
Canada Crop              21.50   21.50    23.17   23.17
Canada Exports           15.00   16.00    16.80   16.50
China Crop              117.00  115.50   115.18  115.18
China Imports             1.00    1.00     0.93    1.00
FSU Crop                106.62   99.50    80.97   80.97
FSU Exports              33.21   27.71    14.39   13.91
SOYBEANS (mln tonnes)
Brazil Crop              73.50   72.50    75.50   74.50
Brazil Exports           36.50   34.00    29.90   30.85
Brazil Imports            0.05    0.05     0.03    0.03
Argentina Crop           53.00   53.00    49.00   49.50
Argentina Exports        11.80   11.30     8.50    8.50
China Imports            56.50   56.50    52.00   52.00
SOYOIL (mln tonnes)
China Imports             1.60    1.70     1.50    1.60
SOYMEAL (mln tonnes)
China Imports             0.30    0.30     0.30    0.30
                           Aug    July      Aug     July
CORN (mln tonnes)
Argentina Crop           26.00   26.00    22.00    22.00
Argentina Exports        18.50   18.00    14.50    14.50
S.Africa Crop            12.50   12.50    12.00    12.00
S.Africa Exports          2.00    2.00     2.50     2.00
China Crop              178.00  178.00   173.00   173.00
China Exports             0.20    0.20     0.10     0.10
China Imports             2.00    2.00     1.50     1.50
COTTON (mln bales)
China Crop               33.00   33.00    30.50    30.50
China End Stocks         13.57   13.32    11.62    11.62
China Exports             0.05    0.05     0.13     0.13
China Imports            15.00   15.25    12.00    12.00
India Crop               27.00   27.00    25.40    24.50
DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Aug 11 
    For the week ended Aug 4, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
   The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for corn, soybeans and sorghum begins Sep 1. The
marketing year for soymeal and soyoil begins Oct 1.
    For rice and cotton, "this year" is the 2011-2012 marketing
year, which began Aug 1, while "last year" is 2010-2011.
    Source: USDA
    -a: Includes new sales activity the week Jul 29-Aug 4 which
resulted in a net decrease of -5.6 thousand metric tons. Also includes
785.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011.
    -b: Includes new sales activity the week Jul 29-Aug 4 which
resulted in a net decrease of 0.0 thousand metric tons. Also includes
42.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011.
    -c: Includes new sales activity the week Jul 29-Aug 4 which
resulted in a net increase of 18.9 thousand metric tons. Also includes
371.5 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2010-2011. 
                 wk's net change          total
                  in commitments       commitments          undlvd sales
             this year next year   this yr   last yr   this yr  next yr
wheat            376.1       0.0   10937.4   10569.7    5544.2     63.6
corn             441.4     311.3   47802.9   51843.5    5728.2   8299.6
soybeans         238.2     350.2   41899.3   40938.3    2854.6  10258.2
soymeal           23.4      73.6    7728.0    9438.2    1034.1    518.8
soyoil             6.9       0.0    1298.1    1431.8      93.5     10.3
upland cotton    780.2-a     2.0    6712.6    5588.8    6629.7    138.1
pima cotton       42.9-b     0.0     370.6     131.8     370.3      0.0
sorghum          -19.4      58.9    3523.0    3531.0     444.2    175.3
barley             0.0       0.0      79.3      42.6      76.6      0.0
rice             390.4-c     0.0     447.7     535.5     404.5      0.3
 
DJ SURVEY: 2011 U.S. Wheat Production
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. winter wheat production based on conditions as of August 1, as compiled by
Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated wheat
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                       Average      Range     July    2010
                                              USDA    Output
   All Wheat(17)       2.085     2.015-2.134  2.106   2.208
   All Winter (15)     1.483     1.400-1.505  1.492   1.485
   Hard Red Winter(13) 0.795     0.779-0.809  0.791   1.018
   Soft Red Winter(13) 0.457     0.446-0.465  0.458   0.238
   White Winter (13)   0.241     0.231-0.245  0.243   0.229
   Other spring (15)   0.550     0.515-0.577  0.551   0.616
   Durum (15)          0.062     0.058-0.065  0.064   0.107
                              All   All    HRW   SRW   White  Other  Durum
                              Wheat Winter             Winter Spring
   ABN Amro                   2.067 1.505  0.800 0.465 0.240  0.560  0.064
   ADM Investor Services      2.123 1.500  0.799 0.458 0.243  0.560  0.063
   AgriVisor                  2.109 1.495  0.798 0.455 0.242  0.556  0.058
   Allendale                  2.026 1.429   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.533  0.063
   Citigroup                  2.076 1.460  0.779 0.446 0.235  0.554  0.063
   Doane Advisory             2.026  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   Farm Futures               2.134 1.491   n/a   n/a   n/a   0.577  0.062
   Global Cmd Analytics       2.052  n/a    n/a   n/a   n/a    n/a    n/a
   *Informa                   2.117 1.504  0.809 0.453 0.242 0.555   0.058
   Jefferies Bache            2.104 1.486  0.792 0.451 0.243 0.555   0.063
   Kropf/Love                 2.086 1.500  0.797 0.460 0.243 0.526   0.060
   Macquarie                  2.069 1.492  0.787 0.464 0.241 0.515   0.062
   NARMS                      2.104 1.501  0.805 0.455 0.241 0.542   0.060
   Newedge                    2.121 1.500  0.796 0.461 0.243 0.556   0.065
   PFG Best                   2.095 1.487  0.790 0.455 0.242 0.546   0.062
   Price Group                2.015 1.400  0.791 0.458 0.231 0.550   0.065
   RJ O'Brien                 2.118 1.501  0.797 0.460 0.245 0.558   0.058
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: USDA August Corn, Soybean Production Report
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for 2011
U.S. corn and soybean production based on conditions as of August 1, as
compiled by Dow Jones Newswires.
      The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated
production at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number of
estimates in that average and range.
                                           July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Production
   Corn (23)       13.083   12.775-13.356  13.470  12.447
   Soybeans (23)    3.174    3.119-3.225    3.225   3.329
   Yield                                   July    2010
                   Average      Range      USDA    Yield
   Corn (23)       155.2     151.0-158.0   158.7   152.8
   Soybeans (23)    42.8      42.0-43.4     43.4    43.5
                         Corn         Corn    Soy         Soy
                         Production   Yield   Production  Yield
   ABN Amro              13.104       156.0   3.195       43.0
   ADM Inv Services      13.224       156.5   3.212       43.4
   AgriSource            13.100       154.9   3.150       42.5
   Agrivisor             13.235       157.1   3.141       42.5
   Allendale             12.953       155.2   3.119       42.0
   Citigroup             13.106       155.1   3.148       42.5
   Doane Advisory        13.221       157.5   3.150       42.5
   Farm Futures          12.877       153.3   3.162       42.5
   FC Stone              13.002       153.2   3.145       42.4
   Globl Cmd Anlytics    12.979       153.6   3.171       43.0
   *Informa              13.353       158.0   3.139       42.5
   Jeffries Bache        13.066       156.0   3.186       42.7
   Kropf and Love        13.075       154.0   3.200       43.0
   Linn Group            12.775       152.1   3.148       43.0
   Macquarie Bank        13.087       155.8   3.194       43.1
   N. Am Risk Mgmt       13.100       156.0   3.199       43.0
   Newedge               13.062       155.3   3.201       43.1
   PFG Best              12.950       156.9   3.200       43.0
   Price Group           13.075       154.0   3.195       43.0
   Prime Ag              13.350       158.0   3.225       43.4
   Risk Mgmt Comm        12.820       151.0   3.120       42.5
   RJ O'Brien            13.045       153.7   3.186       42.9
   U.S. Commodities      13.356       157.5   3.225       43.4
  *From Trade Sources
DJ SURVEY: August US Grain, Soybean Carryout
      The following are analysts' estimates in billions of bushels for U.S.
grain and soybean ending stocks for 2010-11 and 2011-12, as compiled by Dow
Jones Newswires.
  The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply
and demand estimates at 8:30 a.m. EDT Thursday. Parentheses denote the number
of estimates in that average and range.
  2010-11
                                          July   2009-10
                 Average        Range     USDA   USDA
   Corn (12)     0.923       0.880-1.005  0.880  1.708
   Soybeans (12) 0.223       0.200-0.235  0.200  0.151
                                Corn    Soy
   ADM Inv Services             0.905   0.230
   Allendale                    0.913   0.205
   Citigroup                    0.930   0.220
   Doane Advisory               0.905   0.235
   Farm Futures                 0.910   0.208
   Jefferies Bache              0.905   0.235
   Macquarie Bank               0.932   0.234
   Newedge                      0.930   0.220
   North America Risk Mgmt      1.005   0.225
   Price Group                  0.880   0.200
   RJ O'Brien                   0.941   0.235
   U.S. Commodities             0.920   0.225
  2011-12
                                         July
                 Average        Range     USDA
   Corn (20)     0.741       0.527-0.986  0.870
   Soybeans (20) 0.172       0.110-0.222  0.175
   Wheat (18)    0.671       0.629-0.762  0.670
                                 Corn    Soy    Wheat
   ABN Amro                      0.950   0.190  0.710
   ADM Inv Services              0.749   0.222  0.680
   AgriSource                    0.625   0.155  0.645
   AgriVisor                     0.986   0.161  0.713
   Allendale                     0.742   0.154  0.703
   Citigroup                     0.771   0.150  0.660
   Doane Advisory                0.746   0.160  0.640
   Farm Futures                  0.527   0.161  0.640
   Global Commodity Analytics    0.594   0.133  0.637
   Jefferies Bache               0.641   0.175  0.668
   Kropf & Love                  0.675   0.175  0.650
   Macquarie Bank                0.739   0.207  0.629
   Newedge                       0.750   0.170  0.762
   North America Risk Mgmt       0.725   0.180  0.668
   PFG Best                      0.750   0.172  0.665
   Price Group                   0.800   0.175  0.635
   Prime Ag                      0.850   0.210  0.670
   RJ O'Brien                    0.696   0.178  0.697
   Risk Management Commod        0.675   0.110   n/a
   U.S. Commodities              0.821   0.205   n/a

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on news that Saudi Arabia has tendered to buy 660,000 tons of hard Wheat and also noted the poor conditions in the US Great Plains.  Ideas are that the US has a good chance to win the tender as US prices are competitive and as the Saudis generally buy higher quality Wheat.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and some rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning mixed or even up after the price action this week.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light precipitation.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and higher for Hard Red Winter Wheat.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 677, 670, and 666 September, with resistance at 690, 705, and 723 September.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 762, 760, and 758 September, with resistance at 789, 810, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 857 and 886 September.  Support is at 829, 817, and 811 September, and resistance is at 840, 860, and 872 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were higher yesterday as traders anticipated bullish production and supply and demand estimates from USDA today.  The market remains very concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  Rice is starting to head out or is flowering in the Mid South so it needs cooler and wetter weather to produce good yields and good volume.  The weather has started to moderate in the Mid South, but the region will not get a lot of rain.  It is se3eding some showers and the situation there is showing some improvement.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been steady to firm.  Cash markets in Texas also appear steady to firm.  Price action since late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US.  Trends are generally up on the charts.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with objectives of 1787 September.  Support is at 1680, 1677, and 1669 September, and resistance is at 1702, 1719, and 1729 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn was near unchanged and Oats were higher yesterday as traders got ready for the USDA reports today.  Traders are also worried about world growth prospects after the recent action in financial markets that featured sharply lower equities markets again yesterday.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 671, 662, and 659 September, and resistance is at 689, 693, and 714 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 335, 331, and 327 September, and resistance is at 346, 350, and 356 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were higher on short covering before the USDA reports today.  Overall Midwest weather is improving for Soybeans development and production potential.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last week has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas into next week.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.  Gulf basis levels were unchanged.  Charts show that trends are turning down. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are steady at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is steady. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 1275 September.  Support is at 1285, 1277, and 1256 September, and resistance is at 1304, 1315, and 1322 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 338.00, 336.00, and 330.00 September, and resistance is at 345.00, 348.00, and 349.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 5260, 5220, and 5150 September, with resistance at 5370, 5410, and 5480 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was a little lower on ideas a big harvest was coming soon.  Some support was seen in sympathy with the strength in Chicago.  The big speculative selling in Chicago earlier this week was caused mostly by improving crop conditions in the Midwest and the extreme weakness in world equities markets.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Swathing has started in Saskatchewan.  Palm Oil was higher today in recovery trading.  The MPOB data was neutral to futures.  Charts show that trends have turned down this week. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are down with objectives of 532.00 November.  Support is at 532.00, 530.00, and 528.00 November, with resistance at 546.00, 551.00, and 553.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2920, 2900, and 2875 October, with resistance at 2990, 3005, and 3020 October.

Midwest Weather:   More showers again this weekend and by the middle of next week.  Temperatures will average near normal.