WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little lower Friday on forecasts for some beneficial precipitation in the central and southern Great Plains.  The rains were seen Friday and early Saturday, then hot and dry weather returned.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia and other origins.  Saudi Arabia was a buyer of Wheat over the weekend from many origins, but not Russia or eastern Europe on quality issues.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning mixed or even up after the price action last week.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light showers.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Saudi Arabia bought 660,000 tons of Wheat from Australia, the EU, Canada, and the US over the weekend.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 690, 677, and 670 September, with resistance at 723, 729, and 732 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 840 and 852 September.  Support is at 789, 762, and 760 September, with resistance at 812, 823, and 832 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 886 September.  Support is at 840, 836, and 829 September, and resistance is at 875, 894, and 898 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                  
CFTC Code #001602                                                    Open Interest is   534,448                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   54,342   173,293   183,169    10,292    36,621    60,834    73,514    56,046    13,422    31,019    87,548                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    4,292    -4,857    -8,573     1,116       698      -377       414      -872       842       -82     1,522                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     10.2      32.4      34.3       1.9       6.9      11.4      13.8      10.5       2.5       5.8      16.4                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   417                     
:       76        98        20         6        25        55        68        63        68        77       121 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHEAT - KANSAS CITY BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001612                                                    Open Interest is   179,951                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   36,932   104,036    30,682       522     1,442    43,805     9,287    17,893    12,769     4,934    12,707                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    6,383     3,513      -655         0    -3,149      -876       982    -2,476       459      -121       -61                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     20.5      57.8      17.1       0.3       0.8      24.3       5.2       9.9       7.1       2.7       7.1                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   182                     
:       53        65        14         .         8        33        15        27        27        13        31 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHEAT - MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                              
CFTC Code #001626                                                    Open Interest is    55,176                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   21,448    31,700     1,259         0       397     8,512       971     3,577     3,046       801     4,789                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:     -494    -2,077      -433         0        69      -180      -259      -121      -994        55       457                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     38.9      57.5       2.3       0.0       0.7      15.4       1.8       6.5       5.5       1.5       8.7                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    70                     
:       31        23         5         0         .         9         4         9        10         5        12 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were a little lower Friday after a choppy session as USDA on Thursday morning showed slightly higher production and higher ending stocks for the year.  Export demand was cut, especially for the short grain Rice.  The combined effect was to hurt the bull case, so the bulls were not such active buyers.  The market remains very concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  The weather has started to moderate in the Mid South, but the region is still not getting a lot of rain.  It is seeing some showers and the situation there is showing some improvement.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas as mills try to buy the last of the good quality old crop supplies.  New crop bids have also been steady.  Cash markets in Texas appear steady to firm.  Price action since late last week implies that the market knows it has big crop losses to contend with here in the US.  Trends are generally up on the charts.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Philippines now expects to produce 17.29 million tons of Rice this year, a record production but slightly lower than previous forecasts.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1657, 1644, and 1628 September, and resistance is at 1702, 1710, and 1719 September.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROUGH RICE - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS)                                            
CFTC Code #039601                                                    Open Interest is    19,377                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    4,037    12,616     3,293       174         8     2,779       565       518     1,484     1,633     2,674                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:       50      -450      -267        33         0      -267         0        20        47        88       547                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     20.8      65.1      17.0       0.9       0.0      14.3       2.9       2.7       7.7       8.4      13.8                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    90                     
:       16        17         8         .         .        17         .         .        19        15        20 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher Friday as traders reacted to the USDA reports released Thursday morning that showed less than expected production and ending stocks.  It is not so much that traders had expected that the crop could be that small, it is more that they did not expect USDA to make that call this early in the season.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two to help keep yields from falling further.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 693, 688, and 684 September, and resistance is at 708, 714, and 721 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 340, 335, and 331 September, and resistance is at 347, 350, and 356 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #002602                                                    Open Interest is 1,894,620                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:  317,272   745,001   278,712    49,558   148,328   286,798    25,957   205,817    81,946    48,121   389,091                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:    8,642    -8,634   -12,121     1,769    -4,336   -10,182      -897     6,675    -4,471    -9,715    21,082                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     16.7      39.3      14.7       2.6       7.8      15.1       1.4      10.9       4.3       2.5      20.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   874                     
:      256       384        14        15        28       124        29        84       116       145       206 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OATS - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS)                                                   
CFTC Code #004603                                                    Open Interest is    14,768                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    5,334    10,129     2,213         0         4     2,242       848         0       525       254     1,837                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:      694        -3       165         0         3      -178       160         0        12        70       237                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     36.1      68.6      15.0       0.0       0.0      15.2       5.7       0.0       3.6       1.7      12.4                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    43                     
:       10        12         6         0         .         8         4         0         7         4         6 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of August 9, 2011             
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CBT ETHANOL - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE   (CONTRACTS OF 29,000 U.S. GALLONS)                                      
CFTC Code #025601                                                    Open Interest is     9,438                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    7,206     6,552        34     1,003       256       623         0        12       467       967       233                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     August 2, 2011                                                                             
:     -322      -130         1        75        -4        34         0         7        73      -134        52                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     76.4      69.4       0.4      10.6       2.7       6.6       0.0       0.1       4.9      10.2       2.5                                                                                                         &nbs