08/15 15:00 CDT U.S. weekly crop progress highlights - USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 15 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    08/14/11  08/07/11  08/14/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      5         5        16       N/A
  - Good                          26        25        46       N/A
  - Fair                          29        29        27       N/A
  - Poor                          19        19         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                     21        22         3       N/A
    CORN CONDITION
  - Excellent                     14        15        23       N/A
  - Good                          46        45        46       N/A
  - Fair                          25        24        20       N/A
  - Poor                          10        10         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      5         6         3       N/A
    SOYBEANS CONDITION
  - Excellent                     13        13        19       N/A
  - Good                          48        48        47       N/A
  - Fair                          26        26        23       N/A
  - Poor                           9         9         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                      4         4         3       N/A
    RICE CONDITION
  - Excellent                     26        27        20       N/A
  - Good                          40        39        51       N/A
  - Fair                          27        25        24       N/A
  - Poor                           6         7         4       N/A
  - Very Poor                      1         2         1       N/A
    SPRING WHEAT CONDITION
  - Excellent                     11        11        18       N/A
  - Good                          55        55        64       N/A
  - Fair                          26        27        15       N/A
  - Poor                           7         5         2       N/A
  - Very Poor                      1         2         1       N/A
    SORGHUM CONDITION
  - Excellent                      3         3        10       N/A
  - Good                          24        24        54       N/A
  - Fair                          32        33        27       N/A
  - Poor                          23        22         6       N/A
  - Very Poor                     18        18         3       N/A
    PEANUTS CONDITION
  - Excellent                      6         6        14       N/A
  - Good                          37        37        46       N/A
  - Fair                          36        36        32       N/A
  - Poor                          15        15         7       N/A
  - Very Poor                      6         6         1       N/A
    BARLEY CONDITION
  - Excellent                     11        13        17       N/A
  - Good                          57        59        68       N/A
  - Fair                          26        22        12       N/A
  - Poor                           5         5         3       N/A
  - Very Poor                      1         1         0       N/A
    PASTURE AND RANGE CONDITION
  - Excellent                      7         7         9       N/A
  - Good                          30        32        44       N/A
  - Fair                          24        23        29       N/A
  - Poor                          18        17        13       N/A
  - Very Poor                     21        21         5       N/A
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          88        79        90        84
    COTTON BOLLS OPEN             11         9        14        11
    CORN SILKING                  98        93        99        97
    CORN DOUGHING                 52        32        71        58
    CORN DENTED                   17         7        30        21
    SOYBEANS BLOOMING             94        87        96        94
    SOYBEANS SETTING PODS         70        51        82        78
    RICE HEADED                   73        58        83        77
    WINTER WHEAT HARVESTED        91        85        90        94
    SPRING WHEAT HARVESTED        13         6        31        39
    SORGHUM HEADED                66        52        82        75
    SORGHUM COLORING              32        29        33        35
    SORGHUM MATURE                25        24        20        23
    PEANUTS PEGGING               92        87        96        93
    BARLEY HARVESTED               8         2        25        37
    OATS HARVESTED                65        50        80        77
DJ USDA Grain Inspections For Export In Metric Tons-Aug 15
    For the week ending Aug 11, in thousand metric tons. Includes
waterway shipments to Canada. 
Grain             -------week ending-------       current    previous
                Aug 11       Aug 4       last      mkt yr      mkt yr
                                         year     to date     to date
Wheat           502.0       743.1       597.5     6,273.0     5,113.6
Rye               0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Oats              0.0         0.0         0.0         1.6         0.3
Barley            0.9         0.3         0.2        34.4         4.6
Flaxseed          0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.6
Corn            700.2       902.2       838.8    43,019.2    44,894.7
Sorghum         148.3        70.1        68.3     3,705.5     4,025.4
Soybeans        116.4       166.9       455.2    39,695.6    38,904.5
Sunflower         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0         0.0
Total         1,467.8     1,882.6     1,959.9    92,729.4    92,943.8
  Crop marketing years begin June 1 for wheat, rye, oats, and barley.
September 1 for corn, sorghum, and soybeans.

 

 

WHEAT

General Comments:  Futures closed higher yesterday on general buying seen in most commodities markets and on a weaker US Dollar.  It remains too dry and the central and southern Great plains with no real relief in sight.  Rains seen over the weekend were not sufficient to put a dent in the drought in the affected areas.  Positive export demand news is coming back to the US as the US price is finally getting competitive with Russia and other origins.  Saudi Arabia was a buyer of Wheat over the weekend from many origins, but not Russia or eastern Europe on quality issues.  Wheat finding its way into feed rations in an increasing way.  The current Corn weather and the prices imply that these trends will continue, although Corn weather has improved a lot this week.  Weather forecasts for dry and warm weather in Texas and Oklahoma continue, and more rain will be needed soon for planting of the Fall crops.  Meanwhile, there has been plenty of rain lately in the Northern Great Plains and Northern Midwest, but not much in Wheat areas of the southern Midwest.  Crops in the Northern Plains and into Canada should be in mostly good condition, and showers remain in the forecasts in both areas.  Charts show that the trends are turning mixed or even up after the price action last week.

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in the southern Great Plains, but northern areas could see light precipitation.  Temperatures should average above to much above normal in the south, but near normal in the north.  The Canadian Prairies should get periods of light showers.   Temperatures will average near normal.  Gulf basis levels are steady for Soft Red Winter Wheat and steady for Hard Red Winter Wheat.  Saudi Arabia bought 660,000 tons of Wheat from Australia, the EU, Canada, and the US over the weekend.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 705, 690, and 677 September, with resistance at 723, 729, and 732 September.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 840 and 852 September.  Support is at 796, 789, and 762 September, with resistance at 823, 832, and 851 September.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 886 September.  Support is at 860, 840, and 836 September, and resistance is at 880, 894, and 898 September.

RICE

General Comments:  Prices were higher yesterday along with the rallies in most commodities markets and the drop in the US Dollar.  There was no real economic news out over the weekend, and a calm situation in Europe brought the buyers out.  However, Rice has its own fundamentals to deal with, and most of them appear bullish to prices.  The market remains very concerned about the quality and yields potential for the Rice crop here this year.  The temperatures have moderated in the Mid South, but the region is still not getting a lot of rain.  It is seeing some showers and the situation there is showing some improvement.  Texas and Louisiana are actively in harvest activities now, with good yields being reported in many parts of both states.  No milling yield reports have been heard yet.  Field yields are expected to go down for later planted Rice in these states.  Cash markets are reported to be steady in Arkansas.  New crop bids have also been steady.  Cash markets in Texas and Louisiana appear steady to firm.  Trends are generally up on the charts.

Overnight News: Some showers are possible in Mid South and Delta areas off and on this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1675, 1669, and 1657 September, and resistance is at 1719, 1729, and 1736 September.

 

CORN AND OATS

General Comments:   Corn and Oats were higher yesterday as traders reacted one more day to the USDA reports released Thursday morning that showed less than expected production and ending stocks and to a weaker US Dollar.  Corn losses are certain this year from the hot and dry weather seen in July, but no one is sure just how big the losses will be.  Forecasts call for near normal temperatures and some beneficial precipitation for most areas over the next week or two to help keep yields from falling further.  Some beneficial showers were seen in the Midwest over the weekend, but about a third of the Corn Belt stayed dry.  Better weather now would help improve yield potential, but some losses are still expected.  The question now is just how big those losses are.  Oats are being harvested, so warmer and drier weather will enhance progress.  However, condition ratings are still down.

Overnight News:  Basis was steady to weaker at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 698, 692, and 688 September, and resistance is at 714, 721, and 729 September.  Trends in Oats are mixed.  Support is at 344, 340, and 335 September, and resistance is at 350, 356, and 360 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS                     

General Comments:  Soybeans and products were higher on follow through buying from the USDA reports Thursday morning that showed less than expected production and ending stocks and on a weaker US Dollar.  Overall Midwest weather is improving for Soybeans development and production potential.  Wetter weather in the northern and central Midwest last weekend has aided in crop development, and better conditions are noted now in the south.  However, about a third of the region missed out on any meaningful precipitation at all, so there are still problems out there.  Weather forecasts still offer hopes for improved growing conditions in the Midwest with temperatures closer to normal and some showers and storms in most areas into next week, but there is still no soaking rain for the entire region.  Southwestern areas should stay more stressed than the rest of the Midwest.  August is traditionally the most important development month for Soybeans, so weather forecasts will be very important now.   NOPA showed stronger than expected domestic demand in its reports released yesterday morning, another reason to support Soybeans yesterday.  Charts show that trends are mixed. 

Overnight News:  Basis levels are weaker at the gulf.  Gulf Soybean Meal basis is weaker. 

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 1322, 1315, and 1311 September, and resistance is at 1351, 1369, and 1375 September.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 348.00, 345.00, and 343.00 September, and resistance is at 353.00, 356.00, and 358.00 September.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 5400, 5370, and 5320 September, with resistance at 5530, 5560, and 5640 September.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL                                                                                                                                       

General Comments:  Canola was higher on Chicago.  It is a slow trading session, with speculators the best buyers.  Some selling was seen as traders anticipate a big harvest soon and as export demand seems slow.  Cash movement by farmers is reported active this week as the farmers prepare for the new crop.  Most crops appear to be in good condition.  It is warm there this week and some showers are in the forecast.  European conditions are good.  Swathing has started in Saskatchewan and should spread to the other provinces soon.  Palm Oil was lower today on what appeared to be speculative long liquidation.  A higher US Dollar was a little negative.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 551.00, 546.00, and 532.00 November, with resistance at 560.00, 565.00, and 570.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 3000, 2990, and 2920 November, with resistance at 3060, 3080, and 3140 November.

Midwest Weather:   More showers again by the middle of this week and then ovwer the weekend.  Temperatures will average near normal.