COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed a little higher after a choppy and quiet session.  World economic problems seemed to be the main focus of trade.  Weather overall remains a supportive factor, and not just because of crop losses in Texas.  More talk of big rains in Pakistan created ideas that crops could be lost there.  Chinese growing areas have possibly hurt by rains as well, and it was hot this year in Uzbekistan.  Chart trends still show a neutral bias, but the market appears ready to go higher.  Demand remains soft.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US, and the government is now allowing unrestricted exports for the next couple of months.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major Texas growing areas for the next week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  No relief from the drought appears likely and crop losses in the state should be significant this year.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will get mostly dry conditions, but a few showers are possible.  Southeast coastal areas could get big rains and winds later in the week from Hurricane Irene.  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry, but some showers are possible in the Panhandle this weekend  Temperatures will average above to much above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 104.29 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.014 million bales, from 0.014 million yesterday. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 104.00, 101.00, and 100.00 October, with resistance of 110.00, 112.00, and 116.00 October.

U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Highlights - USDA
WASHINGTON, Aug. 22 (Reuters) - Highlights of the U.S. Agriculture
Department's weekly crop progress report (all numbers expressed in percent):
 Week ended                    08/21/11  08/14/11  08/21/10   5-year
    COTTON CONDITION
  - Excellent                      6         5        16       N/A
  - Good                          25        26        46       N/A
  - Fair                          28        29        27       N/A
  - Poor                          19        19         8       N/A
  - Very Poor                     22        21         3       N/A
    COTTON SETTING BOLLS          94        88        93        90
    COTTON BOLLS OPEN             16        11        20        16
 
DJ ICE Cotton Speculation And Hedging Report - Aug 22
     For Aug 19 long and short positions in contracts.
SPECULATION      LONG   ACCTS     PCT   SHORT   ACCTS     PCT
  Total        63,018   1,226    43.7  43,028   1,068    29.8
HEDGING
  Total        81,333     276    56.3 101,323     257    70.2 
GRAND TOTAL:  144,351   1,502   100.0 144,351   1,325   100.0

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little higher as traders were concerned with world economics and a hurricane that could impact Florida later this week.  The tropical system could hit the US later this week, with Florida likely to be the first port of entry.  The system intensified overnight Sunday and is now Hurricane Irene.  It will be watched for the exact track and strength, but could remain a weak hurricane by the time it hits southern parts of the state.  It could bring some significant rains and winds to the state, but our best forecast call for the state to get just a glancing blow as the main system will stay to the east and in the ocean.  Charts show that trends are mixed as traders look for news and a reason to buy or sell.  Florida for now remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is seeing moderate temperatures and mostly dry conditions for now. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  A tropical hurricane could hit the state later this week.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 170.00, 164.00, and 159.00 September, with resistance at 177.00, 179.00, and 183.00 September.

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement And Pack - Aug 22
   In gallons. Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC). 
                            2010-2011
                         Aug 13        Aug 06     Year Ago
  MOVEMENT
Retail                  134,334       118,569       241,033
Institutional           372,951       349,808       376,584
Bulk                  1,517,187     2,883,193     1,793,560
Total                 2,024,472     3,351,570     2,411,177
Cumulative          134,706,379   132,681,906   112,663,886
  IMPORTS
Foreign                 580,236        76,624        53,391
Cumulative           15,155,211    14,574,975    20,853,173
  RECEIPTS
Domestic                      0         5,541        43,583
  PACK
Retail                  139,441       135,654       219,805
Institutional           369,470       323,065       361,688
Bulk                    625,176       627,713       851,485
Less Reprocessed      1,134,088     1,086,431     1,432,978
Net                           0             0             0
Cumulative           82,091,651    82,091,651    82,252,237
Inventory            62,055,635    63,529,306   111,267,509

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher early in the day, but then closed lower as Coffee futures appeared to mirror activity in the stock markets.  Speculators were the best players on both sides of the market.  Industry and origin appeared to be quiet.  Brazil is not selling much, and Central America and Colombia can only sell new crop as the old crop appears sold out.  However, industry is said to be covered for now.  Weather in Brazil is good, but other parts of Latin America could use improved weather.  It was too dry in Central America at flowering time and reports of too much rain in Colombia.  Warm temperatures are expected for much of the week in Brazil.  A tropical system brought some big rains to southern Mexico and northern Central America over the weekend.  Chart trends remain up in London and turned up last week in New York and Sao Paulo.  

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.475 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 220.19 ct/lb.  Brazil should see mostly dry weather in the north and showers in the south.  Temperatures will average near to above normal this week, but cooler this weekend.  Latin American Washed Coffee exports were 1.97 million bags in July, up 0.3% from last year.  Year to date exports are now 23.1 million bags, up 14% from last year.  Japan Coffee stocks are now 140,559 tons.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 278.00 December.  Support is at 263.00, 257.00, and 252.00 December, and resistance is at 273.00, 277.00, and 281.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 2560 November.  Support is at 2280, 2230, and 2200 November, and resistance is at 2350, 2380, and 2420 November.  Trends in Sao Paulo are up with objectives of 362.00, 372.00, and 408.00 December.  Support is at 347.00, 338.00, and 335.00 December, and resistance is at 356.00, 360.00, and 367.00 December.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower in New York and higher in London yesterday, with buyers still more interested in Brazil crop losses than anything else.  News that the crop there might get smaller provided initial support, but ideas of weakening demand hurt the bull case later in the day.  There just has not been any news to excite the bulls lately, and fundamentals still seem to be more negative than just a few months ago.  That did not matter on Friday.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  Chart trends turned up with the price action last week. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  China sold 200,000 tons of Sugar from state reserves to the domestic market.  Russia has produced 132,700 tons of Sugar from Beet so far this year.  It has produced 2.295 million tons of Refined Sugar from imported Raws, up 21% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up with objectives of 3310 October.  Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2910 October, and resistance is at 3130, 3170, and 3200 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October.  Support is at 775.00, 758.00, and 748.00 October, and resistance is at 801.00, 805.00, and 816.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in New York and in London in quiet trading.  Cocoa may still have found a bottom as futures have already fallen quite a bit since the end of the war and the elections.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa keep the selling pressure around, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Trends are trying to turn up on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market.  Ideas are that current weather patterns in Africa are not good and that production in western Africa can drop next year. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.996 million bags.  ICE said that Cocoa deliveries are 0 contracts today and now total 2 contracts for the month.  Ghana purchases were 4,807 tons last week. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with no objectives.  Support is at 2950, 2910, and 2900 December, with resistance at 3090, 3135, and 3145 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 1890, 1855, and 1840 December, with resistance at 1920, 1935, and 1975 December.