COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed mixed to lower Friday on ideas of weak demand that were supported by another week of poor export sales and cancelations, and on macroeconomic issues.  It was another light volume session.  There has been no resolution to the US Debt issues through Sunday night, and this is starting to hurt Cotton.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  This has caused a lot of selling in nearby months from speculators, although this selling seemed to be running out of steam late last week.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  In addition, it is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  Demand remains poor and trends are down.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get some showers or storms, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 105.03 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.046 million bales, from 0.070 million yesterday.  The China Cotton Association now estimates planted area at 5.41 million hectares in 2011, from its previous estimate of 5.40 million and up 5.5% from last year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are down with no objectives.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 October.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 50,000 POUNDS)                                                 
CFTC Code #033661                                                    Open Interest is   230,172                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   38,445   112,126    46,591    18,401    14,651    35,837     8,168    13,438    16,609     2,429    49,870                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:   -4,189    -2,082      -628       649       703      -367      -455     1,050     2,849       625     2,175                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     16.7      48.7      20.2       8.0       6.4      15.6       3.5       5.8       7.2       1.1      21.7                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   248                     
:       32        44        18        16        20        67        23        35        54        23        50 
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FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little higher Friday in what appeared to be speculative trading.  Some selling once again related to good weather in Florida and Brazil was seen as well.  Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend.  No tropical storms are in the forecast that are likely to come anywhere near the state.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting beneficial showers.  The rains now are very beneficial and are coming at the right time.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now.

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               
CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    45,144                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:    7,051    34,080     4,052     1,931        48    20,472         0       604     1,551       340     6,547                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:    1,037     1,503       -69        27        41       405         0        84       321       -26       611                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     15.6      75.5       9.0       4.3       0.1      45.3       0.0       1.3       3.4       0.8      14.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   115                     
:       18        21         7         5         .        46         0         .        22        10        17 
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COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in all markets Friday, with London leading the way on what appeared to be some speculative short covering.  No one wanted much of a position before a weekend full of negotiations on the US Debt.  No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand.  Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments.  Fundamentals continue to suggest strong prices overall for the longer term, but short term trends are down.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.543 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 199.22 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 235.00 September.  Support is at 238.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 247.00, 253.00, and 256.00 September.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.  Support is at 2020, 1985, and 1940 September, and resistance is at 2130, 2190, and 2230 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are down with objectives of 304.00 and 270.00 September.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 320.00, 326.00, and 327.00 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 37,500 POUNDS)                                                     
CFTC Code #083731                                                    Open Interest is   166,801                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   50,130    73,224    30,734     9,095    10,564    18,338    16,897     7,863     1,118     2,612    39,935                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:    3,914    -1,825      -459       414       371    -1,753     4,311       148       470      -122     2,748                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     30.1      43.9      18.4       5.5       6.3      11.0      10.1       4.7       0.7       1.6      23.9                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   336                     
:       92       102        19        14        20        59        42        46        42        46        67 
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SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher in New York and in London Friday in response to ideas of a smaller production for Brazil and that current crop estimates are continuing to work smaller.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now.  However, production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India increased exports again a week ago, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Indian mills are asking permission to export another 500,000 tons of Sugar and hope to export at least 2.0 million tons this year.  Kingsman now estimates Brazil Center-South Sugar production at 31.87 million tons, down 7.6% from its last estimate.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3160 October.  Support is at 3130, 3000, and 2940 October, and resistance is at 3160, 3190, and 3220 October.  Trends in London are up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October.  Support is at 805.00, 791.00, and 776.00 October, and resistance is at 815.00, 820.00, and 825.00 October.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 112,000 POUNDS)                                                
CFTC Code #080732                                                    Open Interest is   844,667                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:  135,931   412,730   146,500    78,607    64,784   182,105    26,434    51,688    32,034     7,026   141,329                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:    3,543    -2,235    -5,059      -794     4,373       -88     1,126     4,395     1,411      -521    -4,343                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     16.1      48.9      17.3       9.3       7.7      21.6       3.1       6.1       3.8       0.8      16.7                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   248                     
:       53        64        16        14        26        59        21        31        36        35        60 
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COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were sharply lower in New York and in London on talk that a private Cocoa analyst had greatly increased his world ending stocks estimates for this year.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet.  Trends are mixed on the charts for the short term.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.939 million bags.  Ivory Coast exports are 872,717 tons so far this marketing year, from 786,942 tons last year.  Products exports are now 196,273 tons this year, from 257,056 tons last year. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 3050 and 2950 September.  Support is at 3045, 3030, and 3010 September, with resistance at 3120, 3130, and 3220 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 760 September.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1825 September, with resistance at 1920, 1960, and 2010 September.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of July 19, 2011              
:                                             Reportable Positions                                             
:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 
: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              
:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       
:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading 
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COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 10 METRIC TONS)                                                       
CFTC Code #073732                                                    Open Interest is   197,217                
: Positions                                                                                                    
:   72,487   110,380    23,808    10,289     4,211    39,591    23,121    21,785     4,266     1,907    18,645                                                                                                               
: Changes from:     July 12, 2011                                                                              
:     -581    -1,006      -642        64      -658      -755       858     1,603       -86      -280      -736                                                                                                               
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              
:     36.8      56.0      12.1       5.2       2.1      20.1      11.7      11.0       2.2       1.0       9.5                                                                                                               
: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:   171                     
:       33        42        19         5         9        47        26        28        16        11        21 
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