COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply higher to limit up yesterday as traders concentrated on the poor product ion potential now shown in the USDA weekly crop updates.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  This has caused a lot of selling in nearby months from speculators, although this selling turned into buying yesterday.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  Demand remains poor and trends are mixed after the price action yesterday.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get some showers or storms, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 106.99 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.018 million bales, from 0.018 million yesterday

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 95.00, 94.00, and 90.00 October, with resistance of 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little higher again yesterday in quiet trading.  Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend.  No tropical storms are in the forecast that are likely to come anywhere near the state.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 204.00 September.  Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher in all markets again yesterday, with a weaker US Dollar creating most of the buying interest.  No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand.  Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments.  Charts show that a low could be forming in New York.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are higher today and are about 1.543 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 203.65 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 242.00, 238.00, and 233.00 September, and resistance is at 247.00, 253.00, and 256.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2070, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2200, 2230, and 2260 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 328.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed higher in New York and in London yesterday in response to a weaker US Dollar, but gave back some gains after UNICA in Brazil cut production estimates 15%.  Some in the trade had expected bigger production cuts from Brazil.  Unica estimated Brazil Center-South production at 11.9 million tons so far this year.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now.  However, production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to up with objectives of 3160 October.  Support is at 3000, 2940, and 2910 October, and resistance is at 3160, 3190, and 3220 October.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 822.00 and 883.00 October.  Support is at 791.00, 776.00, and 768.00 October, and resistance is at 815.00, 821.00, and 825.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were a little higher in New York and in London on what appeared to be speculative short covering.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are lower today and are now about 3.982 million bags.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2950 September.  Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3040, 3120, and 3155 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1825 September, with resistance at 1920, 1960, and 2010 September.