COTTON

General Comments:  Futures closed lower yesterday on speculative selling tied to long liquidation after the rally this week and unease over the deficit talks in Washington and what a bad result could do to the economy.  Traders also remain concerned about demand, and there has been little or no export demand reported by USDA in recent weeks.  Countries like India are still offering Cotton at prices below those seen in the US.  But, supply should become an issue now.  Bad weather in the US is still around, with little rain in the forecast for major growing areas this week.  It is very hot in the Cotton areas of Texas.  A tropical storm has formed in the Gulf that could bring very unwelcome and damaging rains to southern Texas growing areas in several days.

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast will be mostly dry or will get some showers or storms, mostly in the Southeast.  Temperatures will average above normal.  Texas will be mostly dry.  Temperatures will average above normal.  The USDA average spot price is now 105.72 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified Cotton stocks are now 0.015 million bales, from 0.017 million yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 109.00 and 117.00 October.  Support is at 101.00, 100.00, and 99.00 October, with resistance of 104.00, 105.00, and 110.00 October.

FCOJ

General Comments:  Futures closed mostly a little higher again yesterday in quiet trading.  Charts show that trends turned up again last week, then failed to hold the uptrend.  No tropical storms are in the forecast that are likely to come anywhere near the state.  Florida remains mostly warm and is getting scattered showers.  Brazil is also seeing moderate temperatures and episodes of scattered showers for now. 

Overnight News:  Florida weather forecasts call for scattered showers and storms.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up with objectives of 204.00 September.  Support is at 194.00, 192.00, and 190.00 September, with resistance at 202.00, 205.00, and 208.00 September.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in all markets again yesterday, with many traders getting out of positions as the deficit talks in Washington drag on.  No one otherwise seems real interested in the coffee market right now.  Brazil is still shipping coffee, but there is not much coming from Central America.  Certified stocks keep dropping, but inventories overall in the US and Europe appear ample.  Europe and the US are now in vacation times and seeing less demand.  Weather remains good in Brazil, with moderate temperatures and mostly dry weather.  Roasters are said to be well covered for now, but will soon start looking for Fall shipments.  Charts show that a low could be forming in New York.

Overnight News:  Certified stocks are lower today and are about 1.538 million bags.  The ICO composite price is now 198.52 ct/lb.  Brazil should see dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 238.00, 233.00, and 230.00 September, and resistance is at 244.00, 247.00, and 253.00 September.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 2070, 2020, and 1985 September, and resistance is at 2150, 2200, and 2230 September.  Trends in Sao Paulo are mixed.  Support is at 309.00, 307.00, and 294.00 September, and resistance is at 326.00, 327.00, and 328.00 September.

SUGAR                                                            

General Comments:  Futures closed sharply lower in New York and in London yesterday in liquidation trading.  Both markets are seeing the fundamental emphasis change a little bit.  Brazil lost Sugar production potential this year due to poor weather, but this news has been known for quite a while now.  However, production in other parts of the world seems strong.  Bears keep pointing to increased supplies around the world and no demand this year from India as reasons to see futures move lower over time.  In fact, India is being asked by its mills to allow more exports, and prices in Thailand have been moving lower. 

Overnight News:  Mostly dry conditions are expected in Brazil.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Thailand produced 9.64 million tons of Sugar this year.  It exported between 1.6 and 1.7 million tons this year and could export over 2.0 million tons next year.

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2940, 2910, and 2820 October, and resistance is at 3160, 3190, and 3220 October.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 785.00, 776.00, and 768.00 October, and resistance is at 796.00, 815.00, and 821.00 October.

 

COCOA                                                                 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and in London on what appeared to be speculative selling.  Ideas of good supplies from Western Africa created some selling pressure, but the region is now between harvests so offers are less.  Speculators were the best buyers, and origin remains quiet.  Trends are still down overall on the charts.  For now there is still no real reason to buy except for a temporary shortage as farmers in many countries wait for prices to rally.  Fundamentals have not really changed.  Ivory Coast and western African selling pressure remains a feature of the market. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will average above normal.  ICE stocks are higher today and are now about 4.203 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 2950 September.  Support is at 2950, 2920, and 2880 September, with resistance at 3050, 3120, and 3155 September.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1800and 1760 September.  Support is at 1860, 1830, and 1825 September, with resistance at 1900, 1920, and 1960 September.